Germany

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

The staring contest over Greece

From our UK edition

Now that negotiations have broken down in Athens, and there will be another election, we face the prospect of an almighty staring contest. On one side, the Eurocracy, who will be urging Greek political parties — and particularly the left-wing coalition Syriza, which is ahead in the polls at the moment — to soften their anti-austerity stance. On the other, the Greek politicians, who might be hoping that the eurozone relents to some extent, and allows the cuts to be decelerated. The question is: who will blink first? As it stands, it’s difficult to come up with an answer.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Can Merkel and Hollande meet in the middle?

From our UK edition

This afternoon, it’s even clearer that the French and Greek elections are a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone. It’s not just the nervous market reaction to yesterday’s results, but also the way how the supranational debate has now changed. More so than ever, there are now two clear oppositional fronts. On one side, broadly speaking, are those who say that austerity is a prerequisite for growth. On the other, those who say that austerity must be relaxed for growth to arrive. It’s a situation dripping with black humour. When David Cameron kept Britain out of Europe’s fiscal pact a few months ago, it was portrayed as a case of us against them. Now it’s more a case of them against themselves.

James Forsyth

Cameron faces a political storm

From our UK edition

For the Cameroons, the political weather at the moment is about as appealing as the prospect of a Bank Holiday trip to the beach. The Tory party is having a very public debate about its future strategy. The Alternative Queen’s Speech being promoted by David Davis, John Redwood and Tim Montgomerie is a reminder of how vocal the leadership’s internal critics are prepared to be. The worry for Cameron has to be that there is this much sounding off just two years into the coalition. One wonders what it will like be a year from now.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Fears heighten as the Eurocrisis rumbles on

From our UK edition

For all the coverage of hacking, pasty tax and the like, the continuing crisis in the eurozone remains the most significant political story. Until it is resolved, it is hard to see how the UK returns to robust economic growth. I suspect that the market reaction to a Hollande victory will be limited as it is already pretty much priced in. Those expecting a degringolade will be disappointed. However, if Hollande does actually try and implement some of his more extreme ideas, the markets could take fright. What is far more worrying than France is Spain. There’s a growing sense of inevitability that the Spanish banks will need a bailout before the autumn.

Wednesday

Jonathan Jones

Britain’s longest downturn

From our UK edition

As of today, we now have four years’ worth of GDP figures since the UK first went into recession — and they don’t look pretty. By this point in the 1930s, we’d already fully recovered from the Great Depression.

Saturday

Paul Johnson

Who are the losers now?

From our UK edition

Keith Lowe’s horrifying book is a survey of the physical and moral breakdown of Europe in the closing months of the second world war and its immediate aftermath. It is a complex story and he tells it, on the whole, very well. Though the first world war took the lives of more uniformed young men, in the useless slaughter of the Flanders trenches, many more people, chiefly civilians, died in 1939-45. Soviet casualties were the greatest: 23 million killed, of whom two million came from Belarus and seven million from Ukraine. Next came the Poles, with losses of 6,028,000, the largest percentage of the population in any country. The Germans also lost six million, and the Yugoslavs over a million.

Saturday

Philip Mansel

Charming, cold-eyed cosmopolitan

From our UK edition

At last a diary as penetrating on Berlin as the Goncourt brothers’ on Paris has been translated into English. The author, Count Harry Kessler, resembled a character from Sybille Bedford’s masterpiece, A Legacy. Born in Paris in 1868, he was educated in England, France and Germany. His father was a Hamburg banker; his mother was an Irish-Scottish beauty called Alice Blosse Lynch, admired by the Emperor Wilhelm I. At once German and European, Kessler rotated, as freely as some do today, between London, Paris and Berlin. After a year in the army, and a voyage round the world, Kessler devoted himself to the arts. Exhibitions and parties, and  long descriptions of landscape, fill his diary. He did not find social life hollow.

Friday

James Forsyth

Europe is being strangled by the Franco-German alliance

From our UK edition

David Cameron’s complaints at last night’s EU meeting about the lack of a growth agenda have, in part, been addressed by the new draft conclusions. Cameron — who was supported by the Dutch, Italians and Spanish — seems to have secured promises on the completion of the single market, deregulation and the services directive in the summit’s draft conclusions. This isn't going to turn around the European economy. But it is a step in the right direction and a small, but possibly significant, victory for the PM.   I understand from sources in Brussels that there has been frustration with the extent to which the conclusions presented last night simply echoed the views of the Germans and the French.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Europe’s latest tonic could worsen Osborne’s political problems

From our UK edition

Seems that the latest plan to fix the eurozone involves cooking up a pot of alphabet soup. Over in Mexico, G20 finance ministers are currently discussing whether to blend two existing eurozone bailout funds, the EFSF and the ESM, with some extra money from the IMF. They hope that this EFSF-ESM-IMF mix will add up to about £1.25 trillion of ready cash for failing eurozone economies. ‘Look at the size of our fund,’ they will then say, as they try to settle nerves across Europe and beyond. Details are lacking, but some things are already worth noting about this potential mega fund. First is that it seems to be coming about with permission from Germany.

Saturday

Andrew Gimson

Anglo-Saxon divide

From our UK edition

Philip Oltermann has set himself an almost impossibly ambitious task. In 1996, when he was 15 years old, he moved from Hamburg to London, so he has close experience of both England and Germany. In due course it occurred to him, as a man of wide cultural sympathies, that he ought to be in a position to write an interesting book about Anglo-German relations. But how to structure such a work? Oltermann is too polite to say so, but a great part of the problem is that modern English readers are abysmally ignorant of Germany. This used not to be the case: before 1914, to be educated was to be able to read German.

Thursday

David Owen

How to remain a nation state

From our UK edition

Britain out of Brussels' clutches by 2020? It can happen, says David Owen, in a piece for the magazine this week. It's based on a speech to Peterhouse College, Cambridge. Here's the full version: In all the controversy about the eurozone and Greece it is easy to ignore one simple fact: maintaining a core eurozone is creating an unstoppable momentum towards a United States of Europe. On 7 February 2012 the German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated very clearly her direction of travel. The eurozone crisis for her is to be the springboard to another Treaty to replace the Lisbon Treaty. She said ‘Step-by-step, European politics is merging with domestic politics.

Tuesday

Alex Massie

Darling: This is a Greek Versailles Treaty

From our UK edition

Alistair Darling's suggestion that income tax might be devolved (entirely!) to Scotland as part of a new post-referendum "settlement" was, understandably, the headline part of his Scotland on Sunday interview at the weekend. But his views on the Greek crisis were even more candid: His assessment of the Greek crisis is astonishingly frank. “The policy they [European leaders] are pursuing towards Greece is sheer lunacy. Nobody actually believes it will work privately, if you speak to people.” Even if everything worked, he notes that Greece would still have debts worth 120 per cent of its national income. “It will still leave the country so indebted and so crippled that it will never pay its way.

Peter Hoskin

Greece saved at last? Nope…

From our UK edition

Greece sorta defaulted last night. That's what you need to remember when reading of Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos's ‘happiness’ at the €130 billion deal reached by eurozone finance ministers in the early hours. Sure, the country will now be able to pay off its creditors when various loans mature on 20 March. But the concurrent ‘voluntary’ haircut of 53.5 per cent for private bondholders will still be seen as a ‘restricted default’ by credit rating agencies. And it could feasibly get worse if those private bondholders decide not to play along and instead trigger a credit event, either manageable or messy.

Saturday

James Forsyth

The green squeeze

From our UK edition

Bjorn Lomborg’s article on why Germany is cutting back on its support for solar power is well worth reading and has clear implication for this country’s debate about energy policy. As Lomborg argues: ‘there is a fundamental problem with subsidizing inefficient green technology: it is affordable only if it is done in tiny, tokenistic amounts. Using the government’s generous subsidies, Germans installed 7.5 gigawatts of photovoltaic (PV) capacity last year, more than double what the government had deemed “acceptable.” It is estimated that this increase alone will lead to a $260 hike in the average consumer’s annual power bill.

Thursday

Faisal Islam

Bailout country | 16 February 2012

From our UK edition

With the political wrangling over another Greek bailout continuing today, we thought CoffeeHousers might care to read (or re-read) Faisal Islam's cover piece for The Spectator from four months ago: In a theatre in central Athens, over a thousand tax inspectors have gathered to shout crossly about the latest cuts to their pay and pensions. Eventually the argument, between the government-affiliated union leader and his members, spills out on to the street. The rank-and-file feel betrayed: they were persuaded to accept the first wave of pay cuts earlier this year, and now they are being asked to take even more. This does not feel to them as if they’re being bailed out by kindly neighbours. It feels to these tax inspectors, and to Greeks in general, like humiliation.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The steady erosion of Greek democracy

From our UK edition

The longer this Greek crisis goes on, the clearer the various agendas at play are becoming. As the Greek finance minister said earlier, the actions of the Eurozone’s northern faction — led by Germany — do suggest that it wants Greece out of the euro. As I’ve blogged previously, the Germans believe that with Monti in charge of Italy and a new centre-right government in Spain, the effects of Greece leaving the euro could be contained. But this is a big risk. After all, Lehman Brothers was allowed to go bust because it was believed that it was safe to do so. Certainly, the other eurozone countries are no longer even pretending to respect Greek democracy.

Monday

James Forsyth

Will Germany let Greece stay in the euro?

From our UK edition

The German government is split on the biggest policy question of the day, according to the FT’s German edition. As Open Europe points out, the paper has a senior member of the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag saying that finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble ‘supports the bankruptcy of Greece, Merkel wants to strictly avoid it… It goes back and forth, which is not very helpful.’ If true, this is a remarkable story. The British Foreign Office has been convinced since the beginning of the year that the Germans are keen to kick the Greeks out of the euro.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Greece is still the word ahead of today’s eurosummit

From our UK edition

How about this for a claim by Nicolas Sarkozy, made in a TV appearance yesterday? ‘Europe is no longer at the edge of the cliff.’ It's quite some statement, so let's hear it again: ‘Europe is no longer at the edge of the cliff.’ Of course, Sarkozy has reasons for saying it beyond mere pre-electoral braggadocio: the rates paid on Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds have generally been falling since the the beginning of the year; the euro has been making some tentative progress against other currencies; and so on. But it still constrasts heavily with much else that is being said around the eurozone. Only last week, Angela Merkel was talking of the overall failure to ‘stabilise the situation’ in Greece.

Friday

Daniel Korski

‘Let everyone live happily…’

From our UK edition

Created to remember one of the darkest chapters in mankind's history, Holocaust Day is for many people an occasion for unadulterated discomfort. Most of my family perished in the Holocaust and those who survived either hid in occupied Poland, pretending to be Catholics, fled to Uzbekistan in the then-USSR or, like Marcel Rayman, fought the Nazis. Today I re-read a letter Marcel sent to his family the night before he was executed by the Nazis for trying to kill the German commander of Paris: Little mother, When you read this letter, I'm sure it will cause you extreme pain, but I will have been dead for a while, and you'll be consoled by my brother who will live happily with you and give you all the joy I would have liked to give you.

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

A taxing kind of spin

From our UK edition

The story being briefed out of the year’s first Franco-German Summit is that President Nicolas Sarkozy won the backing of Chancellor Angela Merkel for a tax on financial transactions, a levy that the British government objects to and that Ernst and Young say would leave a €116bn hole in Europe’s public finances. But before the City begins building barricades and the PM puts on his bulldog mask, it is worth taking another look at the news from Berlin. For no sooner had the agreement been announced than the tax was rejected by Chancellor Merkel's junior coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrats, who say they will only back a Europe-wide tax scheme. They are not alone. The Netherlands and Ireland feel the same.