Europe

Should UKIP do some sort of electoral deal with the Conservative Party? This is being talked about at the moment: Cameron pledges himself to a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, Nigel Farage agrees not to field candidates against a bunch of Tory MPs somehow characterised as Eurosceptic. I can see how this would appeal to the Prime Minister, languishing fifteen points behind Labour in the opinion polls. But what good will it do Farage? UKIP has spent a considerable amount of time and energy attempting to convince people that it is not a single issue party, but rather a sort of revamped Monday Club led by nicer people. Strike such a deal and that work will be undone immediately.

One of the areas Conservatives and Lib Dems are more than happy to distinguish themselves on is Europe, although the issue always gets far less attention at Lib Dem conference than it does at Conservative gatherings. A Conservative might find this odd: surely a party so wholeheartedly in favour of Britain remaining within the European Union would want to make the case for why Europe is so wonderful. Instead, senior figures today attacked Conservatives who want Britain to leave the European Union as 'potty'. In a fringe this lunchtime, Lord Oakeshott told the audience that a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU was not necessary as the electorate could express its view through the ballot box at general elections.

As previewed on Coffee House last week, John Baron today launched his all-party group calling for an EU referendum. He has so far managed to bring more than 50 MPs on board, along with a good number of Labour MPs. DUP MPs will also attend. The first meeting will be on 16 October. Yesterday José Manuel Barroso gave momentum to the group's calls for a vote on Britain's membership of the EU by pushing for greater political union. He said: A deep and genuine economic and monetary union, a political union, with a coherent foreign and defence policy, means ultimately that the present European Union must evolve. Let’s not be afraid of the words: we will need to move towards a federation of nation states. This is what we need. This is our political horizon.

It’s an open secret in Eurosceptic circles that Nigel Farage has asked James Delingpole to consider standing for UKIP at the 2014 European elections. The prospect of Delingpole sitting on EU environmental committees is enough to chill the spine of even the most devoted pen pusher in Brussels. However, could we see his foray into politics begin even sooner? I was most amused when asked to sign the “Draft Delingpole” petition today. With the departure of Louise Mensch from the seat of Corby, Northants, an internet campaign has been launched to persuade the Spectator’s very own ranter to stand in the November by-election. Mr Steerpike isn’t going to hold his breath, but Delingpole looks very fetching on the site in his World War II fatigues.

When you are not a part of the Tory tribe there are certain subjects you worry about mentioning as journalist, whether it's at a Conservative Party conference, or indeed, on a blog for the Spectator. One is Europe, another is immigration and a third is multiculturalism. These three interlocking bogies drive the Tory grassroots and emerge, from time to time, to trouble the party leadership. The views of constituency activists on these issues (and people who like to comment on the Spectator site) can be fruity, but I have been talking to Tories for long enough to know that they can be genuinely passionate about this stuff.

Leafing through a pile of Economists I've just caught up on a Bagehot column from last month which inadvertently demonstrates exactly where UKIP’s opponents go wrong. The very final lines of the piece explain: ‘Mr Farage’s real dream is to reshape Britain, by pulling the Conservatives to the right and bouncing Mr Cameron into a referendum on EU membership. If he pulls that off, his insurgency will be no laughing matter.’ It is what is assumed here, rather than what is said, that is most revealing. Why should the prospect of a consultation of the British people on their membership of the EU be so fearful? Surely it could only be so if you were somebody greatly in favour of the EU who believed that the public did not share your beliefs?

It’s Euro-mania in SW1. Always reliable for hard hitting analysis, Tory foghorn Louise Mensch summed up what she saw as her party’s position on the EU: ‘We want a Diet Coke version. A skinny latte. An EasyJet ticket. An IKEA flat-pack. Pain, vin, Boursin. You know. Just the basics.’ And who said a referendum would dumb down a complicated issue? Those paid to walk the line are less happy though. One Tory spinner whispers to me: This ding-dong is almost as interesting as the tennis. Less civilised though...

It’s funny how things turn out. David Cameron said in opposition that there was nothing worse than the Conservative party banging-on about Europe. These days, it bangs-on about little else. The prime minister is a repeat offender. He said on Friday that there should not be an in/out referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union. It’s a different story today. In an article for the Sunday Telegraph, Cameron says that he is not afraid of the words Europe and referendum. But don’t mistake that for a pledge. Cameron writes, ‘I don’t agree with those who say we should leave and therefore want the earliest possible in/out referendum. Leaving would not be in our country’s best interests.

Just when the whips were sighing with relief that Europe has been pushed down the agenda by Lords reform, a rather awkward letter from over 100 Tory MPs flops on to the Prime Minister's doormat. ConHome has the scoop this morning that John Baron has brought together a large group of MPs  who are calling for legislation to be written that ensures there will be a referendum in the next Parliament on the issue. When I spoke to Baron earlier, he told me that four more have joined, although he has agreed with colleagues that the full list of names will be known only to him and the Prime Minister.

Two issues are dominating Number 10’s thinking at the moment: Europe and the cost of living. How to deal with Europe is the biggest strategic challenge facing David Cameron. Cameron has to work out how to use this moment to advance the British national interest. But he also knows that Europe is an issue that could split the coalition and the Tory party.   Inside Number 10, it seems that it is becoming a question of when to announce a referendum not whether to call one. As I say in the Mail on Sunday today, senior figures there are pushing for the Tory commitment to a future referendum on the EU to be brought forward from the manifesto to this year’s conference season.

There has been much speculation that Labour might insist on a referendum on Europe. This has been fuelled by numerous factors: the parlous state of the Eurozone, the increasingly likelihood of a 2-speed Europe and, above all, the fact that David Cameron doesn’t want the Tories to ‘bang on about Europe’, especially when in coalition with the Lib Dems. There have been a series of high-profile Labour interventions on the subject in recent weeks. Both Peter Mandelson and Ed Balls, arch-schemers both, have mulled the question in public, and the appointment of Jon Cruddas, a pronounced Eurosceptic, as the party’s policy reviewer, tickled fancies still further.