Europe

The Tories have been hoping that their pledge for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU would split Labour – it was the rationale behind John Baron's regular pushes for legislation in this parliament for a referendum in the next, which David Cameron eventually satisfied as far as he could with the Wharton Bill. But so far the only dissenting voices on Ed Miliband's pledge today for an 'unlikely' referendum have been the usual suspects on the backbenches such as Graham Stringer and John Mann. That's hardly a 'furious backlash' and more expected and manageable rage – at present, anyway. It will be interesting to see whether there are many more senior figures who break cover or at least brief off the record about the Labour stance on this issue.

Last week, I spoke alongside Nigel Farage in a debate about immigration organised by the Evening Standard. It was good fun, as you’d expect, with David Lammy, Tessa Jowell and Simon Walker of the IoD on the other side, and David Goodhart alongside me and Mr Farage. You’d be startled, mind you, at the way Nigel Farage gets mobbed by an audience, and in a good way. I did get the chance to get to talk briefly to him myself and ask the question I’d wanted to put to him for ages: why it is that he keeps on about EU migration, when it’s non-EU migration that’s the greater problem. He was unfazed, of course, and said, look, when we meet again in the future to talk about all this, it’ll be EU immigration that’ll be the problem.

A dramatic Cabinet this morning as the Tories ambushed the Lib Dems over the contents of the Queen’s Speech. First, Cameron took them by surprise by demanding that a recall bill be included in the speech. This was quite a slap to the Liberal Democrats seeing as just last month they were publicly blaming Cameron and Osborne for the fact that a recall bill was not going to be included in the Queen’s Speech. But this wasn’t the only bit of Tory aggression this morning. For Osborne then took up the baton, pushing for the inclusion of an EU referendum bill in the coalition’s legislative agenda. David Laws and Nick Clegg dismissed this idea. But IDS then pointed out that the Liberal Democrats used to boast of being in favour of an In / Out referendum.

David Cameron pulled out all the ceremonial stops for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to London and the way in which she played along is testament to her desire for the UK to remain within the EU. The lengthy passage of her speech dedicated to British sacrifices during both world wars was a polished diplomatic gesture that played well with Britain’s ideas about itself and its own historical role in Europe. It was a gesture that she did not have to make. However, as she said herself, Merkel’s address could never live up to the hype. This speech was never going to give us all of the answers to the EU’s future, or the viability of David Cameron’s reform and referendum strategy.

The US Army's cuts are good for Britain. They will force our European allies to think about their own defence and re-evaluate their policies. This will highlight the benefits of NATO’s guarantees and put the focus in the EU on what matters. For over twenty years European members of NATO have had a free ride. They've enjoyed the protection of a shield on land and a fleet at sea wherever needed, and have prospered as a result. Insurance without premiums has been one hell of a gift. It has also led to what Sir Humphrey would call 'courageous' assumptions. Just think what hasn't happened. The Baltic States haven't been invaded, Poland hasn't been cowed like Ukraine or Belarus, Japan hasn't feared China, oil hasn't hit $300 a barrel and piracy has had little impact on world trade.

Angela Merkel is getting the full red carpet treatment when she visits next week. In a 24 hour visit, she'll address both Houses of Parliament and meet the Queen. These honours are being heaped on her because she is Cameron's indispensable ally. Merkel is so vital to Cameron because as the most important person in the most important country in Europe she holds the key to his plan to renegotiate the terms of Britain's EU membership. If she is prepared to offer encouragement to this, then Cameron's plan is credible. If she's not, then it isn't. Several of the other big European players, notably the French, would be happy to cut Britain out of any future treaty talks by simply using an inter-governmental treaty rather than an EU one to define the governance of the Eurozone.

Those of us who want a referendum on the European Union need to be cautious in our approach to the Scottish one. What is sauce for Alex Salmond’s goose may prove sauce for the European gander. We should not assume, for example, that José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, is telling the truth. Or take the argument that business is opposed to Scottish independence. The CBI and suchlike always favour the current arrangements and fear uncertainty. They will oppose British independence even more surely than Scottish. They are not always wrong, but their view should not be credulously accepted. Mr Salmond is right that the threats made by the powers that be in a campaign are very different from what they say after a clear result.

Before the European Elections in May, don’t expect either David Cameron or Ed MIliband to engage with Nigel Farage. Both the Tory and Labour leaders think that the best strategy for dealing with Ukip and its leader is to deny them the oxygen of publicity. Nick Clegg, by contrast, is desperate for a scrap with the Ukip leader. Clegg’s rationale is that the more fights he can pick with Farage, the more he can turn the European Elections into a fight between In—led by Clegg and the Liberal Democrats—and Out, championed by Farage and his party. Clegg hopes that this polarised contest will prevent a total wipeout of Lib Dem MEPs. Being pro-European might, to put it mildly, not be the most popular cause in Britain but it is a lot more popular than the Liberal Democrats.

Europe, eh? Good for nothing, innit? That's the prevailing narrative you hear these days. But, as so often, this is a matter of perspective. The chart above, plundered courtesy of Anne Applebaum's twitter feed, shows the respective growths of GDP per capita in Poland and the Ukraine since the fall of the Iron Curtain and the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact. One of these countries, as you can see, has done rather better than the other. It's the country that has made a better fist of democracy. And it's the country that is a member of the European Union. Which is one reason why Britain should still be in favour of expanding EU membership.