Economy

One man who isn't on message at the start of the government's economy week is Justin Welby, who has been warning against excessive jubilation at the end of this week when the next tranche of GDP figures are released. He told the Telegraph: 'A flourishing economy is necessary but not sufficient. A healthy society flourishes and distributes economic resources effectively, but also has a deep spiritual base which gives it its virtue.' This sounds a little bit like pre-2010 David Cameron, but it doesn't quite chime with the political offensive that the Tories want to go on this week, accusing Labour of making consistently bad predictions about the economy.

The coalition wants this week to be all about the GDP figures, out on Friday. As I say in the Mail on Sunday, Downing Street is confident that they’ll show the economy is continuing to grow at a relatively decent clip and is already working out how to make political out of that. They have, as Simon Walters reports, already prepared a video mocking Labour’s claims that the coalition’s polices would lead to a million more people on the dole. Ed Miliband’s circle expects that the GDP numbers will again be positive. But they take the view that as long as prices are increasing faster than wages, squeezing voters’ living standards, economic growth won’t mean much politically.

You know you’ve been in politics too long when you're onto your tenth 'Red Tape Challenge'. I remember Neil Hamilton as Deregulation Minister in the Major Government in ’92 promising to slash the jungle of red tape. Every time I cheered. Every time the flood of Regulations and Directives kept pouring out of the Whitehall and Brussels machine. But hardened Red Tape Analysts of all stripes will notice something a bit different about yesterday’s news of the Prime Minister's commitment to implement the deregulatory proposals of the Business Task Force. He has explicitly linked it to the historic Renegotiation and Referendum strategy launched in his Bloomberg speech. So this time we'll actually have a chance not just to stem the flood of regs, but to turn off the stopcock.

Poor old Ed Balls. He's been making predictions of doom that now appear to have gone too far and too fast. The latest blow to the Shadow Chancellor is that the IMF, which he went through a period of definitely liking a lot when its lieutenants started suggesting that austerity was 'playing with fire', has upgraded its growth forecasts for the UK by more than any other major economy. This map from the organisation's latest World Economic Outlook illustrates rather neatly how well the IMF expects the UK to do in comparison to other European economies. Obviously this doesn't mean that everything is fine and dandy and that everyone in the UK can enjoy golden sunlit uplands from now on. Balls is certainly one who isn't skipping through meadows of flowers with joy at the news.

Fraser Nelson thinks it was the 'language of someone happy with the economy'. James Forsyth saw it as renewed hope for leading the Conservative party. On this special View from 22 podcast, we analyse George Osborne's speech to Tory conference this morning; whether the economic measures mentioned were sensible and what it says about the Chancellor himself.

Gordon Brown was notorious for complicating our already over-complicated tax system, and it seems that his former aide, Ed Miliband, wants to emulate the master. The danger is that Ed Miliband would do so against the backdrop of a vulnerable economy in a very mobile global market place. His latest idea is to put up corporation tax, arguing that this will “pay” for a freeze in business rates on small firms. In fact, the net burden on business will remain unchanged, so his tinkering would be little help to the small businesses that he allegedly wants to help. There are more devils in Miliband’s detail: the freeze would only apply to those properties with an annual rental value of £50,000 or less.

Below is the text and full audio of Ed Balls' conference speech given today in Brighton, as released by Labour's press office. But there's one section missing.

Nick Clegg's strategy of getting his party to approve his position on a number of contentious issues reaches its most awkward stage today, with the votes on the economy and taxes that are causing the greatest grief with activists. It's complicated by Vince Cable's plan to be a no-show at the economy debate in an attempt to hold onto his Jeremiah credentials. The votes are being billed as a clash between the leadership and its activists, but it's a little more complicated than that. Last night I attended a fringe held by Liberal Reform, a group in the party that campaigns for a market-based approach to policy-making.

Poor Vince Cable. He just can't help but brim with joy about the economy. He's often spotted skipping across Parliament square to the Business department, humming 'Oh, Happy Day!' under his breath at the latest set of GDP figures. George Osborne and Cable's Tory colleagues are always having to tell Vince to calm down a bit: he doesn't want to seem too complacent about the clouds lifting from the economy. But even such a joyful Lib Dem as Dr Cable must have been a little dispirited to read that everyone has written his speech this morning up as an attempt to undermine George Osborne. 'I think George Osborne's comments the other day were spot on!

David Cameron’s statement to the Commons on the G20 wasn’t as lyrical as his response to Russia’s ‘small island jibe’. But it was a reminder of the needle that now exists between Cameron and Miliband. In previous times, these statements—which are far less tense affairs than PMQs—have seen a bit of badinage between the two front benches. But that has now gone. The statement was dominated by Syria, which Cameron called the ‘refugee crisis of our time’. When Cameron talks about his defeat in the Commons on Syria, he speaks very quickly, with no pauses between the words. It’s as if he wants to get talking about it over as quickly as possible.

The coalition government is preparing a new case for HS2. Concerned that public and political support for the project is slipping away, there’ll be a major effort to renew enthusiasm for it. In this new case, there’ll be far less emphasis on speed and far more emphasis on how HS2 is needed because the existing railway lines are full up. This marks a recognition inside government that the savings on the journey time to Birmingham, which are less than half an hour, are too small to act as a public justification for the project. Expect to see this new argument reflected in the Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin’s speech on Wednesday. I suspect that HS2 will retain the support of all three front benches in this parliament.