Dow

Trumponomics is working

Remember the old quip about economists? “That’s all very in practice,” they say, “but how does it work out in theory?” Nobel laureate Paul Krugman of the New York Times is a splendid example of that sort of folly. On the evening of November 9, 2016, Krugman skirled that the election of Donald Trump would precipitate economic Armageddon. “If the question is when markets will recover,” he said, “a first-pass answer is never.” How could they recover since the nation had just elected an “irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people,” that is to say, he didn’t take advice from people like Paul Krugman.Reality check: the day Krugman wrote that, the market closed at 18,589. In the last few days the Dow broke 50,000.

Trump

Why the Biden stock market is even worse than you think

If you’re the sort who rarely checks your 401K and other investment accounts, you may be blissfully unaware of what a dismal year (plus) its been for the stock market. Many prominent media personalities, particularly ones on CNBC, promised us that Biden would be a boon to the stock market because Trump was too erratic. But while the market started hot in 2021, it's mostly been ice cold ever since, with a few fake rallies thrown in to tease us. How bad has the Biden era been for stocks? Consider some numbers I crunched prior to the market opening on December 12.

A brief history of embarrassing economic forecasts

Many are familiar with the old aphorism that in real estate the three most important determinants of value are location, location, location. Things are a bit different in making economic forecasts and predictions, where two variables matter most: accuracy, of course, but also timing. Regarding accuracy: a lengthy list of economists — some quite eminent — have ended up with egg on their faces because of inaccurate predictions and forecasts. In this regard, there’s the observation by the distinguished economist Irving Fisher, 92 years ago today on October 16, 1929, that stock prices had reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau’. Since the Great Crash occurred two weeks later, Fisher’s timing wasn’t so great either.

forecasts