Douglas carswell

Ukip have been approaching potential defectors and offering to pay for a poll in their constituency that shows how well they'd do as a Ukip candidate, Coffee House has learned. Since boasting last week that they had a few more MPs who might defect to the party, Ukip have been trying again with some Conservatives they believe to be vulnerable. They approached one with what the MP describes as a 'carrot-and-stick' approach. 'The pitch was you're a great guy and we'll pay for a poll with you as hypothetical Ukip candidate if you defect,' said the MP, who didn't want to be named. 'The stick was we'll soon select a good Ukip candidate who might cost you the seat.

We asked Daniel Hannan, Lord Tebbit and historian Andrew Roberts what – if anything – David Cameron could do to rescue his party. Here's what they had to say: Daniel Hannan, MEP At this stage in the Parliament, there are no legislative tricks to pull out of the hat. In any case, as far as policy goes, David Cameron has got the basics right: lower spending, welfare reform, free schools, support for enterprise. But it all risks being thrown away because of a divided Centre-Right vote. Ukip will do to the Conservatives what the SDP did to Labour 30 years ago. Our first-past-the-post system doesn't allow space for two competing parties on the same side of the political spectrum. Think of the result at the Eastleigh by-election.

How do the Conservatives make the Clacton by-election more difficult for Douglas Carswell? I hear from two extremely well-placed sources that the selection for the Tory candidate will be an open primary. Carswell himself bemoaned the demise of this selection method when he announced he was leaving the party to join Ukip, and party sources have been muttering for a few days that the authority of the new Ukip candidate is rather undermined by his decision to shunt the poor, bewildered local Ukip chap, Roger Lord, out of the way. Now sources tell me that the party will revive open primaries for this election to make it more difficult for Carswell.

What should worry David Cameron more, Douglas Carswell's defection to Ukip or reports that as many as 100 Tory MPs could go into the general election pledging to leave the European Union? The former is certainly more dramatic and promises plenty of humiliation over the next few months. But the latter could show the Prime Minister that he doesn't have as much time on European reform as he would like, and that he is still not trusted by a large contingent of his party. It is one thing for Better Off Out members such as Mark Reckless to pledge to campaign to leave, no matter what reforms David Cameron manages to secure.

Where is this burning point of principle that drove Douglas Carswell into the arms of Ukip? I’ve read lots about his defection, and I’m still none the wiser. We’re told that he was talking to Farage for almost a year, which would have overlapped with the time he told me that the Tories need to unite behind Cameron because he was the only one promising an in-out referendum. What has changed? Carswell says that Cameron is not serious about Europe. The Prime Minister has become the only leader in the continent to promise an in-out referendum. I’m not sure how much more serious one can be. Should he lay out, now, what he wants in a renegotiation? Of course not – it would be rendered rapidly out of date.

I rejoiced at the news of Douglas Carswell's defection to Ukip. Not because I'm a Ukip supporter (I haven't made up my mind) but because it highlights the slippery dishonesty of the Tories' modernisation programme – 'the political equivalent of botox', as Charles Moore puts it in today's Telegraph: The pattern of the leader’s actions conveys a message to party workers: they are the problem. Not surprisingly, they tend to leave. Instead of being a renewal, modernisation has become a hollowing out. Douglas Carswell, by contrast, is authentically a moderniser. At the heart of Carswell's vision for Britain lies the expansion of the franchise and political accountability.

Stuart Wheeler has just been boasting on Sky News that two more Conservative MPs are 'seriously considering' defecting to Ukip. Wheeler has been the broker in any potential defections, wining and dining potential converts before asking if they want a meeting with Nigel Farage. Not all of them have said yes to that second offer. It is, though, plausible that there are MPs who are still not rock solid in their decision to back the Tories all the way to the next election. The result of the Clacton by-election, how David Cameron plays the Europe question and how he manages the party over the next few months will determine whether they do go or not.

Anyone who would rather not live in a Britain run by Ed Miliband and Ed Balls should be dismayed at Carswell’s defection to Ukip. He is an original, intelligent and eloquent MP who has done much to help the Prime Minister form the more radical parts of his agenda. For a while, I thought that this was his game plan: to avoid frontbench positions, and engage constructive opposition – which is democratic tugging of the party leader from the vantage point of the backbenches. I defended him against critics who said he was an attention-seeker whose ego would one day explode. Today, it's harder to defend him.

Normally when Speaker Bercow drags out a statement from the Prime Minister to over an hour and a half, the PM starts to look a bit pained. Today David Cameron looked as though he'd quite like a bit more: he'd spent most of the afternoon listening to Conservatives telling him how great he is and how pleased they are with him. It must have been an odd sensation to see MPs like John Redwood rising to congratulate him on his failure to block Jean-Claude Juncker. Some Tories went further: Stewart Jackson told the Chamber that this episode of Cameron standing up to Europe showed he had 'lead in his pencil' (Cameron told him, rather confusingly, that he would 'er, let the relevant people know').

The Sunday papers resound with the sound of Tory MPs thinking aloud about how to deal with ill-discipline: principally expenses and harassment. On harassment, the Sunday Times reports the 1922 Committee is considering its own regulation plans after deciding that placing the complaints procedure in the hands of whips might lead to scandals being ‘hushed up’ because politics would win out over justice. Committee chairman Graham Brady has said: 'We have taken independent advice and had preliminary conversations with Acas [the Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service] about how an appropriate grievance procedure might best be structured.' On expenses, Douglas Carswell and Zac Goldsmith make the case, yet again, for voters to be given powers of recall over MPs.

Mr S has long admired Essex Tory MP Douglas Carswell. Not only does the rebel with a cause bring a fascinating aspect to the political debate, it also turns that out the lawmaker fights lawbreakers: Just chased and caught a shop lifter in Clacton..., waiting for police — Douglas Carswell MP (@DouglasCarswell) January 24, 2014   This will do wonders with his local paper. One less vote, though. PS: General Boles - or Bright Blue Boles, as he styles himself now - has produced the marvellous picture above.