Conservative party

How do the Conservatives make the Clacton by-election more difficult for Douglas Carswell? I hear from two extremely well-placed sources that the selection for the Tory candidate will be an open primary. Carswell himself bemoaned the demise of this selection method when he announced he was leaving the party to join Ukip, and party sources have been muttering for a few days that the authority of the new Ukip candidate is rather undermined by his decision to shunt the poor, bewildered local Ukip chap, Roger Lord, out of the way. Now sources tell me that the party will revive open primaries for this election to make it more difficult for Carswell.

So, after the horsetrading of the past few days, the Conservatives appear to have won their battle to add relocation powers to the terrorism prevention and investigation measures. In his statement in the Commons this afternoon, David Cameron said: 'We will introduce new powers to add to our existing terrorism prevention and investigation measures, including stronger locational constraints on suspects under TPIMs either through enhanced use of exclusion zones or through relocation powers.' The Prime Minister also confirmed: Police will gain the power to seize passports at the border temporarily so that they can investigate an individual. This power will include safeguards and oversight arrangements.

David Cameron and the Tories’ electoral hopes are about to take a long walk on Clacton’s short pier. A poll in the Mail on Sunday today has Ukip on 64% and the Tories on 20%, a lead that suggests this contest is over before the writ has even been moved. So, Ukip are going to get their first MP. This means that the fracture on the right of British politics is a lot closer to becoming permanent, handing Labour the kind of inherent electoral advantage that the Tories enjoyed in the 1980s. This morning, the next election is Ed Miliband’s to lose. One of the striking things about the poll is that it reveals that not even Boris can save the Tories in Clacton. Cameron had hoped that his ‘star striker’ could get him out of this hole.

Stuart Wheeler has just been boasting on Sky News that two more Conservative MPs are 'seriously considering' defecting to Ukip. Wheeler has been the broker in any potential defections, wining and dining potential converts before asking if they want a meeting with Nigel Farage. Not all of them have said yes to that second offer. It is, though, plausible that there are MPs who are still not rock solid in their decision to back the Tories all the way to the next election. The result of the Clacton by-election, how David Cameron plays the Europe question and how he manages the party over the next few months will determine whether they do go or not.

As well as saying his decision is regrettable and counterproductive, the other Tory response to this morning's shock defection by Douglas Carswell is to point people to instances where Carswell has said that only David Cameron as Prime Minister in 2017 will guarantee a referendum. In April, he wrote on his Telegraph blog: 'In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.'   Suggesting he is inconsistent is at least a little more nuanced than smearing him as a 'headbanger'. But what Carswell's defection today tells us is that he doesn't actually think that referendum will be worth it anyway.

Boris Johnson has confirmed that he is going to apply to be the Conservative candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip. His announcement comes on the same day that Nigel Farage is expected to be confirmed as the Ukip candidate for South Thanet, which suggests that the Conservatives are keen to use Boris as their anti-Farage weapon. More to follow...

One of the most fascinating things about Lord Ashcroft's latest poll is not its content, but who in the Conservative party will be reading it. Naturally, those trying to hold onto or win in the marginal seats that the peer has polled will be very interested (but not cheered) by the findings. But besides those with a personal stake in individual seats, there will be two groups of MPs: those who comb through the full datasets that Ashcroft produces, and those who do not. These are, respectively, the pragmatists and the optimists in the party, and they naturally have quite different views of what will happen next May.

Politics is an expensive game. You might get paid three times the average salary once you're in Parliament, but you can spend so much on your way there that only those with a fair bit of their own dosh have a good chance of making it. In this week's Spectator, I examine how the exorbitant cost of being a candidate is preventing many fine potential politicians from making Westminster more representative of the country it is supposed to represent. But it's not just expensive for those who want a taste of power: if you're a party member, you can shell out around £700 to attend autumn conference - and once you're there, discover that you're not really all that welcome.

Baroness Warsi's interview with the Sunday Times and Independent on Sunday is, unsurprisingly, not just about her discomfort with the government's policy in the Middle East. The Independent on Sunday uses her jibe at public school Tories as its top line, while the Sunday Times splashes on the peer's warning that the Tories have left it a 'little too late' to attract more votes from ethnic minorities. Her criticisms, aimed as a parting shot at her colleagues, may be discounted for being just that: nothing more than a sour parting shot from someone who found that a number of people who worked with her were only too pleased to see her out when she resigned last week. But just because they come from Warsi, hardly flavour of the month, doesn't mean they're not true.

FOB, FOG or FOT? Which one are you? In this week's Spectator, Harry Mount examines the machinations of the Friends of Boris as they set their star man up for a return to Parliament and a future Tory leadership bid against the Friends of George and the Friends of Theresa. It's worth reminding all three contenders, though, that these long-drawn out contests between party big beasts rarely lead to those big beasts actually taking the leadership. David Davis, Michael Portillo, Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine could all tell a few tales on that front.