Conservative party

The Joanne Cash affair is the kind of story you couldn't make up. But once you get beyond the comic details there are a few things worth taking seriously. First, CCHQ has not covered itself in glory during this episode. It was aware of the problem but rather than dealing with it, it attempted to massage the situation. If CCHQ had acted decisively, this problem could have been resolved a fortnight ago without all this publicity and damage to the party. CCHQ's performance hardly fills one with confidence about whether or not it has done the appropriate due diligence on its candidates all around the country.   Second, it is striking how much resentment there is to the Cameron circle even in an association so close to Westminster and Notting Hill.

This death tax levy is gutter politics at its most visceral and it’s thrilling drama. Brown's and Cameron's loathing for each other is pure soap opera, and they’re having a right old slanging match. I agree with Pete, it is dispiriting to see the Tories stoop to misrepresenting policies, the show-stopper in Brown’s repertoire. Together with Cameron’s personal attacks, the Tories have surrendered the high ground, but as Iain Martin notes is anyone really surprised? The Tories have been expecting, righty, Labour to fight a grubby election campaign and have decided to fight Brown’s mob with fire. Personal attacks appeal largely to those whose minds are settled, so I see little electoral advantage in delivering them.

Yesterday's Guardian story about a potential death tax would have been perfect material for Cameron in PMQs. Even after Andy Burnham's denials, there are still legitimate questions to be asked about it. For instance, would the government say that they will never propose the tax? And, if not, how will they pay for their social care guarantees otherwise? Fired across the dispatch box, these enquiries could have put Brown on the back foot. But now that the Tories have jumped the gun, and released that poster attacking a Labour policy which isn't actually a Labour policy, they've rather limited that line of questioning. If the death tax comes up, all Brown need do is point to the poster and cry foul play. He can even throw in a few words like   "misleading," for good measure.

Bad news for David Cameron in the Standard this afternoon – several Tories have not made expenses repayments that were agreed seven months ago. After yesterday’s success, the last thing Cameron needed was a question over the effectiveness of his Scrutiny Panel, established to go “beyond the letter of the rules”, which he deemed too lenient to placate public anger. Bill Cash is the major culprit exposed by the Standard. He agreed to repay £15,000 for an unacceptable rent/mortgage arrangement, but Commons records disclose that he has only repaid the £429 he claimed on an antique desk. Although the non-compliance of Tory MPs is a problem for Cameron, this isn’t merely a story of rapacious Tory MPs.

If you're going to take anything away from Andy Burnham's press conference this morning – apart from his denials about a £20,000 "death duty" – it's how heavily those Labour "guarantees" are going to feature in the election campaign.  Here we had social care guarantees, cancer treatment guarantees, waiting line guarantees, and even a new website and poster (see above) attacking the Tories for not signing up to the same guarantees.  So far as the government is concerned, it matters not that these pledges have been made before – what matters is the opportunity to draw more dividing lines across the landscape of British politics.  "Caring" versus "cruel", as far as the eye can see.

Well, the Populus poll isn't all good news for the Tories. As James pointed out last night, they have shed another point and Labour have regained some ground. But, as both Peter Riddell and Mike Smithson note, the Tories can still secure an outright majority on the basis of these figures. The numbers which lead the Times's frontpage coverage are more encouraging for Cameron & Co. They show that the public are attuned to the Tories' broad narrative. 73 percent think society is broken; 82 percent think that now is the time for change; and 64 percent believe Britain is heading in the wrong direction. After 13 years in power, Labour cannot credibly represent change; it has to defend its record, which on the evidence of these findings is not something it will manage easily.