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In a move designed to take advantage of everyone’s need to fill air time before the debates, the Tories have launched a new ad spoofing that picture of Brown walking through a set of double doors while two aides squat on the ground holding it open. The ad is just up here in Manchester but the Tories will be hoping to get it onto the news broadcast and in to tomorrow’s paper. This is another example of how the Tory cash advantage is helping them.
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Make what you will of his political agenda, but I think this is quite a refreshing admission from Zac Goldsmith today: "There are various things I have said in this campaign with absolute certainty. I said there will be no Heathrow expansion under our Government, there will be no charges for parking in Richmond Park and Kingston Hospital will be safe. If any of those promises are broken I will trigger a by-election and allow people to penalise my party." It's bound to rile some of his Tory colleagues, of course – particularly this close to the election. But one of the upshots of Parliament's recent spate of scandals is that they – and we – will have to come to accept more independent, and independent-minded, MPs.
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After reading Seumas Milne and Timothy Garton Ash in the Guardian and then looking at the advert for the New Left Review on the back of the London Review of Books ("Good Riddance to New Labour"), I do wonder what these people want from a centre-left government. God knows I have been critical of New Labour -- I've had a pop at its record on civil liberties, education, radical Islam, prisons. I could go on. This government has lacked imagination and it has failed to be bold enough. But between 1997 and 2008 Britain became more tolerant and more confident. Hell, it has almost became a modern European nation. It is a better place to be than it was in the 1980s. David Cameron knows that and so do his closest allies in the Conservative Party.
From our UK edition
Hat-tip: ConservativeHome.
From our UK edition
There will be no shortage advice for David Cameron as he prepares for tonight’s TV debate. Wear this tie, smile a lot, be direct but not controversial and so on. The newspapers have been full of tips and lessons from the US debates. The Tory leader is also said to have hired Squier, Knapp, Dunn Communications, a DC-based political consultancy, specifically for help with the TV debates. Allow me to add my piece of (unsolicited but free) advice: don’t be Mr Angry. People want to like you; they want to feel that you can be trusted. They know they don’t like Labour. They know that the country needs change. But they are not yet sure you represent a benign form of change.
From our UK edition
Only 58? Labour's last letter attacking Tory spending cuts this year had 60 economists' signatures attached to it. Their latest, released today, has only 58. Number 10's signature-marshalling skills are clearly on the wane. I sincerely hope that the Tories don't marshal some economists of their own. The last time that happened, back in February, we witnessed the low point of the fiscal debate – with both sides using a bunch of academics as a substitute for a proper conversation with the public. And, lest we forget, Guido's handy graph reminds us just what those economists were and are quibbling over anyway. This is a phoney war, so it's little surprise that Brown has resorted to it once again. Thankfully, signs are that Tories won't pay heed to the bait.
From our UK edition
The figures from YouGov's daily tracker have just been released, and they have the Tories on 41 percent (up 2), Labour on 32 (up 1), and the Lib Dems on 18 (down 2) – so a lead of 9 points for Cameron & Co. It's worth noting, as well, that the Tory manifesto comes out on top in supplementary questions about which has the best policies, which is most honest and which is the best for the country. But, to my eye, the most striking result is that relatively low level of support for the Lib Dems. I imagine that they'd certainly hope for better as they continue peddling their anti-"Labservative" message.
From our UK edition
Looking at the papers this morning and watching the news last night, you realise what a benefit in the image stakes the Tory cash advantage gives them. The Tories can afford to hire out better venues than the other two parties. So while Labour launched their manifesto in hospital and the Lib Dems theirs at Bloomberg, the Tories used Battersea Power Station which provided them with much better visuals. We saw the same dynamic on the day the election was called: Labour’s event was in Downing Street, the Lib Dem one in an office and the Tory one on the terrace of County Hall looking over to Parliament The Mirror’s front page today accuses Cameron of using his photo-ops to benefit the firms that are backing his position on National Insurance.
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Anyone else think that Labour's latest poster is like a negative of the Tories' "Vote For Me" effort? White text on a black background, instead of black text on a white background. A picture of Cameron, instead of Brown. I mean, the only thing that isn't swapped over is the tone: both go on the attack, rather than presenting a positive vision. Labour's message here is that the Tories' Big Society manifesto washes its hands of the people. Which echoes the caricatures - "an agenda for abandonment" - that Peter Mandelson wheeled out yesterday, and which you can expect to hear again and again between now and polling day. The question is whether this attack will connect at a time when people trust politicians - and their capabilities - less than ever.
From our UK edition
With the publication of the Labour and Conservative manifestos we should now have some idea of the real differences between the two largest parties. But I am more struck by the similarities. I know we are supposed to believe that Labour is the party of the enabling state, but it chose to emphasise how it would enable the individual during its manifesto launch, just as the Tories did. For the Tories' Big Society read Labour's "mutualisation". There is not as much difference as the politicians would have you believe. Both policies are born out of a simple, pragmatic realisation that the state will not have the cash to intervene even if it wanted to.
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Insightful work from the FT's Chris Giles, who has dug out a couple of academic articles - including one co-authored, in 2007, by George Osborne's current chief of staff, Rupert Harrison - to work out how many jobs Labour's national insurance rise might cost the economy. The results? Well, according to Giles, one says that 23,000 jobs will be lost, and the other comes up with 22,000. Neither of these are figures that Labour will want to crow about. But, as Giles points out, they are below the "57,000 jobs in small and medium-sized businesses alone" that the Conservatives predict in their manifesto.
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The Tories’ Invitation to join the Government was never going to dwell on defence. (You can listen to the brief chapter on defence here.) But that doesn’t mean defence isn’t an election issue. It is, and it's one that the Tories will win. Brown’s defence record is abysmal even by his standards. Former service chiefs have described how Brown ‘guillotined’ defence budgets whilst fighting two wars, and field commanders in Afghanistan have made constant reference to equipment shortages. These accusations were corroborated by facts that Brown then tried to distort before a public inquiry. That’s not all.
From our UK edition
One of the key questions in any election is turnout: whose voters will turn up and whose won’t. People are clearly disappointed in the political class - on a scale from 0 to 10, trust in politicians and parties is hovering around 3 points - but does it mean that they will stay at home, spoil their ballots or opt for fringe parties and single-issue candidates? What about the talk of a hung parliament ? Will it make voters believe that their vote counts - and so bring them to the polling stations -- or make them stay at home, giving up on the idea that any change is possible? In the last three elections turnout was low, relatively speaking: 59 percent of the electorate voted in 2001 and 61 percent went to the polls in 2005.
From our UK edition
Adam Boutlon's interview with Chris Grayling this afternoon felt like a pressure valve being released. Grayling's recent low profile had already become a rolling story, and his absence from the speaking line-up at his party's manifesto launch was bound to fuel more murmuring and speculation – so the Tories clearly decided to wheel him out in front of the cameras to calm things down a bit. As it happened, Boulton was on combative form – arguing that elected police commissioners would just add "another layer of bureaucracy" to society – but Grayling sounded quite reasonable in response.
From our UK edition
Whatever your political leanings, it is hard to deny that the Tories won the Big Idea Competition. The Labour Party offered a series of unconnected (if occasionally innovative) initiatives. But they lacked coherence. Their manifesto had what Peter Mandelson called “Blair Plus”, but also what could be referred to as “Prescott Squared”. “What's The Big Idea?” asked Sky’s Niall Paterson. The Tories on the other hand have a Big Idea – decentralisation. Giving power to citizens in a number of different ways. It is a concept that gives shape to the Tory manifesto, providing a ready stock of sound-bites. But why do we need Big Ideas, as opposed to just Good Ideas?
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You can read Fraser’s verdict here, but this is what the rest of the Web had to say: Janet Daley described it as ‘the perfect pitch’: 'The Conservatives have just given a launch performance for their manifesto which was as close to perfect as any I have seen. It was clear, coherent and genuinely compelling: the message was simple: people power rather than state power.' Ben Brogan welcomes less, not more: 'Today was also about David Cameron. He made a long speech, too long, and so reminded us that when he is scripted he is less effective.
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Battersea Power Station is chosen as an allegory for Britain – “a building in need of rejuvenation in a country in need of rejuvenation” says David Cameron. As for Cameron’s speech – great stuff. He delivered the ‘empowerment’ message and gave hard examples, and wrapped it up into a greatest hits of his best soundbites (none the worse for that). It was so up our street that, at times, I thought he was working his way through the leader in the current edition of The Spectator. I’ll save my full verdict on Cameron’s speech and positioning for the magazine this week. But here’s the rest of the launch. The Tories went for an ensemble, with each of the Shadow Cabinet taking turns to read out the lines.
From our UK edition
Stay tuned for live coverage from 1100. 1238: And that's it. Phew - quite a marathon. A strong central message, I think, but it could have been said in fewer words. Thanks for tuning in. 1235: The Guardian's Nick Watt asks why the Tories aren't talking more about the extent, and the consequences, of spending cuts. Cameron's response is that he has "always been frank" with the public. 1233: Key question on whether withdrawing the state will mean worse public services for folk. Cameron says that he not looking to pull the rug from under people, but just to introduce choice and competition to counter the "dead, dull hand of the state.
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The Conservative Party’s departure from the European People's Party came down to a choice of expediency over principle. If you are inclined to accept that Britain will stay in the EU and that membership helps this country - even if it requires some compromises - you will likely find the move unfortunate. If you are more concerned about the principles at stake – and feel that Britain’s loss of sovereignty has gone too far – and do not care about the loss of influence on the legislative process, you are likely to be in favor of the Tory move. David Cameron is keen to keep the issue of Europe away from the campaign - and he is likely to succeed.
From our UK edition
Am I the only one who'd care for a bit more uncertainty and surprise when it comes to the election campaign? I mean, yesterday, Labour released a manifesto which had been heavily trailed for weeks, even months, in advance. And, today, it looks as though the Conservatives are going to do likewise – with the political barometer saying that their Invitation to Join the Government of Britain won't contain anything substantially new. Its cover was even published last night. And, if you want an sense of what Cameron will say today, then just read his article in this morning's Times. Of course, it's the job of a well-oiled campaign machine to build anticipation in advance, and to keep feeding the media beast along the way.