Conservative party

Monday

James Forsyth

Who will follow Cameron?

From our UK edition

Matthew d’Ancona’s piece in the new GQ on who’ll succeed David Cameron as Tory leader has been much discussed today. Matt says that Jeremy Hunt ‘is the man to watch’. But I think Hunt’s problem is that he is too like the current leader—telegenic, personable and pragmatic—and parties tend to opt for a successor who is a bit different from what they’ve just had. Boris Johnson would, of course, be very different from Cameron. But as Matt notes, if Boris returns to Parliament early it will be regarded as a declaration of intent. Boris’s greatest weakness is that he’s seen as great fun but not a man of substance.

David Blackburn

Boris is keeping the faith

From our UK edition

Both Tim Montgomerie and Bernard Jenkin report that Boris has not lost the faith: the Mayor of London is opposed to ditching first past the post. This runs contrary to what was reported in the Times this morning. It makes sense: Johnson’s contempt for coalition government is open - it is highly unlikely that he’d advocate a reform that might entrench it. It also adds to the growing narrative of Boris Johnson protector of the traditional right. Cameron’s position on voting reform is intriguing. As Iain Martin notes it’s as clear as mud, and deliberately so. The preservation of the coalition is everything. Cameron is far too canny to campaign against reform, no matter how deep his convictions (and even they aren’t crystal).

David Blackburn

If the BBC won’t cut costs, then Hunt must

From our UK edition

From a completely selfish standpoint, I’m pleased that the BBC has saved 6Music. The decision does, however, raise a pertinent question: why is one of the public sector’s mammoth institutions seemingly impervious to spending cuts? Never mind DfID and the NHS, ring-fencing Sue Barker is simply inadmissible. Mark Thompson, the Director General, has identified the barest modicum of cuts. The BBC’s ‘gold-plated’ pension scheme might be limited (subject to union agreement), which will save roughly £50million. But the BBC has awarded 70 percent of its employees a £475 annual pay rise. Few companies in the private sector, especially broadcasters, can afford such generosity. It’s that same with presenters’ pay.

Peter Hoskin

Is Boris the only Tory losing faith in FPTP?

From our UK edition

While we're on the subject of Boris, this article by the Times's Sam Coates is worth noting down.  It suggests that the Mayor of London has "lost faith" in our first-past-the-post voting system, and has declined the opportunity to campaign in its favour.  And while he remains an "agnostic" about the alternative votes system, he is more inclined towards it after "the election and the successful creation of the coalition". Now, Boris's views are Boris's views – so we shouldn't read too much into the story.  But it will still reinforce the idea that more and more Tories are coming around to AV.  And it could fuel fears that the No campaign lacks a dash of oomph.

Peter Hoskin

The coalition’s spending cuts are forcing Labour into a corner

From our UK edition

It's becoming a familiar drill: another morning in Westminster accompanied by new spending cuts from the government.  Today, it's the schools budget which is being trimmed to the tune of £1.5 billion, with the cancellation of Labour's plan to rebuild some 700 schools.  But there are also reports of cuts to civil service pay-offs, and even of legislation to make it tougher for the unions to protest those cuts.  After yesterday's news, the Treasury is clearly on a roll. Of course, the main political reason for all this early activity is that the coalition hopes to get much of it out of the way while the public is still on side.  But I'm sure it's also designed with an eye on the Labour leadership contest.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Cameron’s realignment of our party politics

From our UK edition

When the coalition was first formed, I expected it to collapse in months. But, then, I was expecting the type of coalition that I’d seen in the Scottish Parliament when Labour and the Lib Dems kept their distance (and their mistrust). But what has emerged is a far tighter coalition – and one that may even end up in a merger. Cameron has been very generous to the Lib Dems, in both Cabinet places and policies. But since then, he has just grown more generous. In the News of the World today, I wonder if he’s playing for keeps.   It was great to welcome Nick Clegg to The Spectator’s summer party last week, and the other Lib Dems who turned up to raise a glass to the return of fiscal sanity.

Peter Hoskin

The Treasury is playing a very smart game

From our UK edition

Picking up David Laws' axe at the Treasury was never going to be easy – but all credit to Danny Alexander, who seems to be managing it with some degree of gusto.  After those extra savings he announced a few weeks ago, the Chief Sec has now written to ministers asking them to identify cuts of up to 40 percent in their budgets.  I repeat: 40 percent.  That's higher than the highest roundabout figure I heard before the election (30 percent, from civil servants as it happens).  And it tops the 33 percent that the IFS suggested might be necessary last week.  Quite a few ministers will be quaking at the very thought of it. In truth, though, the 40 percent figure is "worst case scenario" territory.

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

Hague caught in the middle

From our UK edition

When General Petraeus called for a "united effort" on Afghanistan earlier, he might as well have been addressing our government.  Between David Cameron's and Liam Fox's recent statements, there's a clear sense that the coalition is pulling in two separate directions.  And it's left William Hague explaining our Afghan strategy thus, to the Times today: "'The position on combat troops is as the Prime Minister set out last weekend. By the time of the next election, he hopes we won’t still be fighting on the ground. We are working towards the Afghan national security forces being able to stand on their own two feet by 2014,' but there is 'no strict or artificial timetable'. 'Five years is a long way ahead. There is a lot more work to be done.

Peter Hoskin

The coalition’s big choice on Incapacity Benefit

From our UK edition

The coalition's plan for moving claimants off Incapacity Benefit and into work is, at heart, an admirable one.  For too long, IB has been used a political implement for massaging the overall unemployment figures, and it has allowed thousands of people to wrongly stay unemployed at the taxpayers' expense.  There is, quite simply, a moral and economic case for reform. But that doesn't mean that Professor Paul Gregg's comments in the Times today should be ignored.  Gregg is one of the architects of the current system for moving claimants off IB, and he raises stark concerns about how that system is currently operating.  The main problem, he says, is the medical test for determining who, and who doesn't, deserve the benefit.

James Forsyth

The Ashcroft report

From our UK edition

One thing that the AV referendum might do is revive the debate in Conservative circles about why the party did not win a majority in the general election. As the most striking example so far of the price of Coalition, it is likely to start off some grumbling about why the party is in position where it has to govern with the Lib Dems. Interestingly, on this front, Francis Elliott reports in The Times today that Lord Ashcroft has nearly finished his review of the campaign and that an ‘early draft is said to be unsparing in its criticism of Mr Cameron and his inner circle.’ But Ashcroft has yet to decide whether or not to publish his review. If Ashcroft were to publish a critical report of the campaign, then I suspect the gloves would come off.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

David Davis: the coalition hasn’t got a way of negotiating with the Tory party

From our UK edition

I doubt No.10 will be all that charmed by David Davis's comments on Straight Talk with Andrew Neil this weekend, but they should certainly take note of them.  They contain some substantive points about the government's relationship with Tory backbenchers, and points which Davis is not alone in making.  The key passage comes when he discusses the watered-down capital gains tax hike: "I don’t think a victory over [the Lib Dems], I mean, it’s quite interesting, we tried to design this, whatever you want to call it, I don’t know whether it’s a rebellion or a difference of view, to really be a precursor to what’s going to happen over the next couple of years, you know.

Peter Hoskin

Report: David Cameron will campaign against AV

From our UK edition

ITV's Lucy Manning reports that David Cameron will campaign against AV ahead of next year's referendum  In one respect, it's not surprising news: this is what the Tories have always said they'd do.  But given recent rumblings and speculation to the contrary, it's still worth noting down. If the Tories don't change their minds before 5 May 2011, the question is how loud and proud that 'No' campaign will be.  If Cameron keeps it low-key, then it might win him some goodwill with the Lib Dems.  But, equally, it could leave him stranded between a strong Yes campaign on one side, and more vocal No campaigns on the other – and under fire from both.

Peter Hoskin

Three questions about the AV referendum

From our UK edition

So now, thanks to Left Foot Forward and reports this morning, we know: the referendum on an alternative vote system will take place on 5 May 2011, the same day as same day as the English local, Scottish Parliamentary and Welsh Assembly elections.  There are plenty of ins and outs, whys and wherefores - most of which are neatly summarised by David Herdson over at Political Betting.  But here are three questions that pop into my head, and are worth idly pondering on this sluggish Friday morning: 1) Does this strengthen the divide or weaken it?  Holding the AV referendum on the same day as local and regional elections was always on the cards: it's the best way to ensure a relatively high turnout, and it smoothes the logistics of it all.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Clegg’s plans to cut back the state

From our UK edition

It may have overlapped generously with his first speech as Deputy PM, but Nick Clegg's effort today is still a breezy read.  Its subject is how the overreaching state should be pushed back out of people's lives.  Its rhetoric is punchy and persuasive in equal measures. And there's even a mention for that most underrated of creatures: the grey squirrel.   But it's not just freedom and fauna; there are dashes of substance in there too.  This, for instance, is something I hadn't come across before: "…my colleague, Eric Pickles, will shortly be asking Councillors and Council staff to identify outmoded, outdated and obsolete secondary legislation which could be cut down to size." A small measure, sure - but a smart one.

Fraser Nelson

What happened to the Tory manifesto?

From our UK edition

During the love-in at the start of the coalition, no one really asked which Tory pledges bit the dust. It becomes relevant now: the Tory pledge to reduce immigration to the "tens of thousands," for example, was in their manifesto but not in the coalition agreement. Although verbally restated later, it is still seen as being a flexible pledge due to its absence in that document. There is no record of what was dropped, so we at CoffeeHouse have provided one below. I won't say it's a rip-roaring read. But for those who think manifestos mean something, it's good to have on the record. UPDATE: I agree with Mycroft, below, that the first headline on this post – '190 Tory sacrifices' – was misleading. Writers never do their own headlines, but that's no excuse.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The plan’s afoot

From our UK edition

In the midst of this ongoing row about employment numbers, it is worth noting that the OBR figures released today show that there’ll be 610 thousand fewer public sector jobs at the end of parliament than there are now. But the overall number of jobs in the economy will increase by 1.34 million. This means there’ll be 1.95 million more private sector workers at the time of the next election. As I wrote in the magazine last week, one of the aims of the Budget was to shift employment from the public sector to the private sector. The OBR’s numbers show that the Budget should do this. There are, at least, two reasons why Osborne wants to do this.

Peter Hoskin

The case against cutting prison numbers

From our UK edition

With all the hoo-haa about Ken Clarke's plan to reduce prison numbers, it's worth disinterring the Spectator's leader column on the subject from a couple of weeks ago.  Here it is, for the benefit of CoffeeHousers: One of the many ludicrous Liberal Democrat policies which Tories enjoyed rubbishing during the general election was their plan to send far fewer criminals to prison. But, alas, it seems that some bad ideas are infectious. Last week Ken Clarke, the new Justice Secretary, suggested that we can no longer afford to keep so many prisoners — so we should sentence fewer, and for shorter periods. Why, he asked, is the prison population twice what it was when he was at the Home Office in 1993? Isn’t it time to cut costs?

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Waiting on AV

From our UK edition

Every conversation I have about the durability of the Coalition comes back to the AV referendum. The conventional wisdom is that if AV is defeated then it will be very hard for Clegg to keep his party in. For this reason, people pay extremely close attention to the Tory leadership’s attitude to AV. We are waiting to see if there is even a hint that Cameron is prepared to soften his position on the issue to strengthen the Coalition.   So Danny Finkelstein’s blog this morning suggesting that ‘AV might provide the answer to the otherwise impossible question - if the parties stay together, how can they fight the election apart?’ has caused quite a stir.

David Blackburn

The rookie gambler turns pro

From our UK edition

George Osborne is an enigma. For many, his politics and personality are defined by a photograph of him sneering in the Bullingdon’s clashing colours. The determined face that presented the Budget contradicted that stereotype; it suggested that Osborne was coming of age.    Paul Goodman was part of Osborne’s Shadow Treasury team and one of the 'Gang of Four' who prepared IDS and Michael Howard for PMQs, along with Boris, Cameron and Osborne. He has written an extensive appraisal of Osborne the man and politician. Read the piece: it’s enthralling, a detailed account of Osborne’s political adolescence through the years of defeat and a candid analysis of his tactical expertise. Two of Goodman’s observations stand out.

Peter Hoskin

Hugh Orde’s rhetoric is encouraging for Osborne

From our UK edition

Whatever happened to Sir Hugh Orde?  A few months ago, he was threatening to resign over the Tories' plans for elected police commissioners.  But later, in a speech to the Association of Chief Police Officers, he seems to have come over considerably more cooperative.  On spending cuts, he stresses that police numbers will likely be reduced, but adds that "we fully understand that all will have to share the pain."  And on elected police commissioners, the worst he can bring himself to say is that "the test is reconciling it with operational independence for policing ... we have an absolute right to clarity on how this system will work.