Conservative party

Westminster is on fire with speculation about Tory/Ukip joint candidates after The Spectator's exclusive this afternoon. But would it really work? CCHQ has already rejected the idea, with a spokesman telling Coffee House: 'It's not party policy and it's not going to happen.' Currently, joint candidates can't officially stand without the sign-off from Labour or Conservative head office. The national nominating officers from both parties would have to co-sign an application to register a joint description. Although in practice the Conservative party gives someone in each local association permission to nominate Conservative candidates, they don't give other people permission to change the party's registered descriptions, which this arrangement with Ukip would do.

The last few days have seen the Tory party losing its collective head. Number 10 hopes that the publication of a draft referendum bill will begin to restore order. If this bill had been published by the leadership a week ago, it would have looked like a bold move. Today, it appeared panicky. But it is now out there, and any Tory backbencher who comes high up in the private members bill ballot on Thursday has a chance of guiding it through. I suspect if a vote could be won on second reading, the parliamentary dynamics of this debate would change yet again. What’ll be intriguing is to see how much the Tories campaign on this. David Cameron has already sent out an email to party supporters.

David Cameron was trying to work out how on earth to deal with the latest Europe row in his party. He heard them demanding legislation in this parliament for a referendum in the next, and this evening, after nearly a year of letter-writing and speeches, he announced that the Tory party will publish a draft bill doing just that. They still can't get it through Parliament through the government channels, so they'll be putting it up for any willing backbencher (of which there are many) to adopt in the Private Member's Bill ballot. Figures close to the Prime Minister were hinting to Tory MPs this evening there would be a move for legislation, but they were taken by surprise when, just a few hours later, the announcement was made that the draft bill will be published tomorrow. So is this it?

If the Tory leadership had hoped that a few weeks of reconciliation between David Cameron and his backbenchers would lead to a new, serene phase in party management, they couldn't be more wrong. Things seem to be getting worse on Europe: today two Cabinet ministers have felt emboldened by the Queen's Speech vote this week to say that on the current terms of Britain's membership of the EU, they would leave. James covered Michael Gove's comments this morning, and this evening Defence Secretary Philip Hammond joined in, telling John Pienaar that Britain needed a better settlement in order to stay in the EU.

Labour's lead in the polls has been pretty steady at around 10 points for a little over a year now. So why does today's Guardian carry an article with the headline 'Outright election victory in 2015 looks a distant prospect, pollster tells Labour'? It's based on two YouGov polls — commissioned by Progress and actually conducted two months ago, but released today. The first asked voters to put each of the parties into one of four categories: 'nice and smart', 'nice but dim', 'mean but smart' and 'mean and dim'. Labour seems to come out best, in that it has the highest proportion choosing 'nice and smart' and the lowest choosing 'mean and dim'. But only 24 per cent say the party is 'smart', compared to 33 per cent for the Tories.

One consequence of the local elections is that no Tory now denies that they need to win over UKIP voters to win the next election. How to do that, though, remains a subject of intense debate — last night’s 1922 Committee meeting with Grant Shapps discussed this point and ran massively over as a result. A large part of Nigel Farage’s appeal is stylistic. He is a technicolour character compared to the monochrome politicians of Westminster. He paints in primary colours rather than shades of grey. Now, Cameron can’t, and shouldn’t, ape this. He is not that kind of politician and would look inauthentic if he tried to be. But he needs someone to try and reach the voters that this approach appeals to. There is one obvious candidate for the job.

Nadine Dorries has been given the Conservative whip back by Sir George Young, Coffee House can exclusively reveal. Sources in the Tory party tell me that the MP, who was suspended in November for appearing on the reality TV show I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!, has just been told she can now return from exile. This is a huge relief for many Conservative MPs, who have been growing increasingly worried that the continuing absence of the Tory whip was beginning to look vindictive and sexist, and risked pushing the Mid-Bedfordshire MP into the arms of UKIP. As David Davis argued this weekend, Nadine Dorries is a working class woman who grew up in council housing and has been treated badly by the Tory leadership, while Jesse Norman is an Old Etonian rebel who received a promotion.