Conservative party

Boris Johnson is 'absolutely increasingly confident' that David Cameron will win in 2015. This was the Mayor's attempt at responding to Andy Coulson's suggestion that he's desperate for the PM to fail so he can cycle in and save the party, a blond messiah. Attempt is perhaps the wrong word, as it suggests Boris made those remarks off the cuff when the Mayor gives every impression that he scripts each remark with as much care as he puts into his newspaper columns. He told 5 News' Andy Bell: 'I'm always grateful to Andy Coulson for his career advice but I'm backing David Cameron who I am absolutely increasingly confident is going to win.' This is damning praise.

There has been a lot of talk about Jesse Norman’s book on Edmund Burke, and deservedly so for it’s a good book – accessible, learned and relevant. Burke is, I suspect, one of the great unread authors; but he’s worth studying because he's influenced so many of our past and present concerns. The place of tradition is one example; Burke sometimes defended traditions for their own sake, and one wonders what he might have made of gay marriage, the ‘snooper’s charter’ or the European Union. And his conception of the individual’s relationship with society (which one might broadly define as the institutions and 'little platoons' that make the nation state) is another example.

After all the parliamentary back and forth yesterday, gay marriage passed third reading by the comfortable margin of 366 to 161. Tory sources are briefing that fewer of their MPs voted against at third reading than second reading, though we’ll have to wait for the division lists to confirm that. We probably now have only a couple more Commons votes left on this; there’ll be on any amendments made to the bill by the House of Lords. The atmosphere in the House as the result was read out did not seem particularly historic. There was some clapping from the Labour front bench, but the Treasury bench didn’t join in and it rather petered out. But, I suspect, that in years to come this will be remembered as one of the more significant things that David Cameron did in office.

MPs have just defeated Tim Loughton's 'wrecking amendment' to the Same Sex Marriage Bill by 375 votes to 70, after approving the Government and Labour amendment (more on how that works here) which will introduce a consultation on heterosexual civil partnerships. Those in favour of gay marriage will, if this Bill does make it out of Parliament and into law (and we still have all the stages in the Lords to go through) give David Cameron credit for continuing to push when many faces were set against him. But Labour has played a very impressive game today, appearing to save the legislation by making a tweak to an existing government amendment. Meanwhile David Cameron is starting his damage limitation exercise with the Tory grassroots following this week's allegations about Lord Feldman.

If four years ago, a Liberal Democrat politician had attempted to portray the Lib Dems as the natural party of government we all would have laughed. But that is just what Danny Alexander tried to do on The Sunday Politics. Being interviewed by Andrew Neil, he implicitly contrasted Lib Dem steadiness with Tory in-fighting. He said: “You know some people at the time in 2010 said that it would be difficult to keep a coalition going because one party might not be able to remain united and disciplined. Let me reassure you and your viewers that Liberal Democrats will make sure that this government continues to be strong and stable enough to be able to take the difficult decisions in the years to come, no matter what’s happening in other parties.

Clearly it is not a good idea for the Prime Minister's chums to call members of the Conservative party "swivel-eyed loons". No, not even at a "private dinner party". I suspect that the identity of the "senior Conservative" who is "socially close" to David Cameron will be out by close of play Sunday and that he - it seems most unlikely it is a she - will, as James says, be removed from whatever position of responsibility he currently enjoys. I also suspect most voters will have no idea who this man is even once his name is revealed. That doesn't matter. Adrian Hilton wrote a good piece at ConservativeHome last year detailing his experiences with falling Tory membership in Beaconsfield.

There's plenty of speculation in Westminster today that Philip Hammond is busy positioning himself as a future leadership contender. Last night he had some pretty strong words about the Government's proposals for same-sex marriage, saying: 'There is a real sense of anger among many people who are married that any government thinks it has the ability to change the definition of an institution like marriage.' Meanwhile the FT identifies him as a reluctant cutter of his own department's spending in its report about George Osborne's £9bn black hole.

If you ask what’s the problem with David Cameron’s European strategy, a cacophony of voices strike up. But it seems to me that most of their complaints are tactical when the fundamental problem is strategic: what does Cameron actually want back from Brussels? Some of those involved in preparation for the renegotiation tell me that this is the wrong question to ask, that what Cameron is seeking is a systemic change in the way the European Union works. But I’m still unclear on what their strategy for achieving this is. One insider tells me that inside Number 10 they’re ‘terrified of detail’. One can see why. Nearly all Tory MPs can get behind renegotiation but they have very different views on how extensive it should be.