Coalition

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

How Clegg outmanoeuvred Cameron over the ECHR

From our UK edition

News that Nick Clegg has brilliantly outmanoeuvred Cameron over the British Bill of Rights will come as no surprise to CoffeeHousers — we told you so last March. The panel was stuffed full of ECHR enthusiasts, balanced by Tories most of whose competence lay in other legal areas. Perhaps Michael Pinto-Duschinsky, the most clued-up of the Tory appointees, didn’t realise this when he joined the panel. He has twigged now, and has quit (or was eased out, depending on whose version of events you believe); observing that the ‘Lib Dem tail is wagging the Conservative dog’. As was evident from the start.

James Forsyth

Clegg previews the Lib Dems’ election pitch

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg’s speech today was a preview of what the Liberal Democrat argument will be in 2015: coalitions work and we’re the ‘one nation’ party who will ensure that the government is fiscally credible but fair. This strategy is the leadership’s best hope for the next election. But it is reliant on coalition government being seen to work, something which isn’t going to be the case if the coalition partners continue to wash their dirty linen in public. In terms of the coalition, there were a few interesting lines in the speech. Clegg said that the Budget ‘must offer concrete help to hard-pressed, hard-working families: a big increase in the income tax threshold, further and faster towards £10,000.

Peter Hoskin

The politics of post-2015

From our UK edition

Have you noticed, CoffeeHousers, that our politicians are talking more and more about what they'd do after the next election? This has been happening, really, since last November, when George Osborne extended the forecasting horizon of his Budget to 2017. That had a hint of chicanery about it, ensuring that Osborne continued to meet his first fiscal rule — but it has still triggered a fashion for future gazing. Since then, both Labour and the Lib Dems have talked, in broad terms, about what they would offer for after 2015. I mention this now because of a story in today's Sunday Times (£).

James Forsyth

The Lib Dems vote ambiguously on the Health Bill

From our UK edition

The motion passed by Liberal Democrat conference this morning means that the party is neither supporting nor opposing the Health Bill. The rebels having lost the vote on whether or not to debate their ‘Drop the Bill’ motion, but managed to amend the so-called Shirley Williams’ motion to remove the line calling on their peers to vote for it. This is a blow to the leadership who were confident last night of winning the vote this morning. But it is nowhere near as bad as the conference — which, remember, still has the power to make party policy — deciding that the bill should be dropped. It is, though, another sign of how deeply this bill has divided the Liberal Democrats.

Saturday

James Forsyth

Vince puts his aggressive hat on

From our UK edition

Ever since Chris Huhne’s departure from government, Vince Cable has become a more and more aggressive coalition figure. His deliberately provocative interview with The Guardian in which this Keynesian, corporatist lambasts the idea that deregulation is key to growth as "ridiculous and bizarre" has drawn a heated Tory reaction. One source told me earlier that “BIS [Cable’s department] imposes ten stupid expensive things on business for every one they’re forced to drop. BIS is mired in useless committees that churn out red tape because Vince loves the EU and hasn’t a clue about small business.’ Just how irritated some Tory Cabinet Ministers are with Cable spilled out into the open last night on Any Questions.

James Forsyth

Clegg reassures his party about the Health Bill

From our UK edition

Lib Dem Spring conference is turning out as the leadership would have wished. The support of Shirley Williams for the Health Bill seems to have been enough to reassure delegates that they should back the bill in its amended form; they’ve already voted to debate the leadership friendly motion tomorrow morning not the ‘Drop the Bill’ one. In a question and answer session with activists just now, Clegg — to huge applause — urged the party to side with Shirley Williams not Andy Burnham. This appeal to Lib Dem tribalism seems to be winning the day on the health issue. Clegg, as he always does at conference, used the Q&A session to take a lot of shots at Labour.

Peter Hoskin

JET — three letters that spell trouble for the coalition

From our UK edition

JEET. That, according to Andrew Grice in the Independent, is the new 'buzzword' circling around Libdemville (population: 57 MPs, and a few others). And it stands for the issues that they want to keep mentioning whenever they can: jobs, education, environment and tax. Fair enough. Although it is striking that only one of these issues is unlikely to put them in close combat with the Tories. Both parties of the coalition support free schools and academies, and the Lib Dems are getting their pupil premium too, so education is relatively uncontroversial territory. But as for the others... Jobs. The conflict here focuses on the role of the state.

Friday

James Forsyth

Clegg rallies his party

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg pushed his members to ‘stop lamenting what might have been and start celebrating what is’ in his rally speech to the Liberal Democrat spring conference. He told them ‘now is the time to move on, to stop justifying being in government and start advertising being in government’. The debate over the Health Bill, though, threatens to dominate the conference. Clegg in his speech went out of his way to pay tribute to Shirley Williams, who is now on the leadership’s side on this issue, lauding the ‘outstanding work Shirley is doing in the House of Lords to protect our NHS’.  This was met with warm applause. But it was not rapturous, suggesting that the conference remains divided on the issue.

James Forsyth

The Lib Dems could kick up a storm over the NHS Bill

From our UK edition

Lib Dem spring conference is, perhaps, the most potent reminder of the cultural differences between the two coalition partners. In the Tory party pretty much the only thing that members get a real vote on is who the candidate in their constituency should be and who they want as party leader, even then that choice has been whittled down to two options by the MPs first. By contrast, the Lib Dems grassroots still get to determine the detail of party policy. The Health Bill’s problems really began at the last Lib Dem spring conference. It was a vote there that led to Nick Clegg seeking a whole host of changes which then led to the pause. As they say, the rest is history.   This Sunday’s vote on the Health Bill could be equally significant.

Peter Hoskin

The Lib Dems are being urged leftwards

From our UK edition

If you didn't know that it's the Lib Dem spring conference this weekend, then you will after a quick rustle around the political pages. The yellow bird of liberty is splattered everywhere today — and in some instances it's causing trouble for the coalition. Take Exhibit A, Tim Farron's article for the Guardian. Farron is, of course, not one of the most Tory-friendly Lib Dem MPs out there, and neither is he a member of the government — but he's still rarely been quite so provocative as this. ‘We are in power now, sharing government with a party that unashamedly favours their people, the millionaires,’ he writes, ‘It's a serious business, so it's time we focused on our people — the millions who are not millionaires.

Fraser Nelson

Why Cameron should pay heed to Romney

From our UK edition

Cameron flies out to Washington on Tuesday, and when he gets there he’ll have no need to play the infatuated teenager. The days of Gordon Brown-style adulation are over, and Cameron has a more mature, less needy relationship with Obama. The truth is that there’s precious little he can learn from Obama, but there might be a thing or two he can learn from Mitt Romney. I look at this in my Telegraph column today. Cameron has never loved America, in the way that so many people in SW1 do. He toured America in his youth, but had never been to Washington until he became Tory leader. Cameron is more interested in the West coast, the latest theories from California about how information can change government. But from Obama? Not so much.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Balls sidles up to the Lib Dems

From our UK edition

Oh look, Ed Balls has backed a mansion tax, saying in an interview with Nick Robinson that ‘If the chancellor wants to go down that road then we will support him... let's work together.’ But, never fear, it's not a completely non-partisan offer from the shadow chancellor. He does weave a divide with George Osborne, by adding that ‘The issue is what's the purpose? If the purpose is to help families facing higher tuition fees, higher VAT or higher fuel bills — for example boosting their tax credits — yes.’ In other words, the money should go towards Labour policies, or Balls will withdraw his hand of friendship.

James Forsyth

Nervous times for Clegg ahead of the Lib Dem spring conference

From our UK edition

This weekend’s Lib Dem spring conference is the next big political hurdle for the Health Bill. If the conference votes against the Bill, then it will create a huge political headache for the government and be a severe embarrassment to Nick Clegg. Talking to Liberal Democrats ahead of the vote on Sunday morning, I’ve been struck by how worried some Clegg supporters are that the vote might be lost. Now, this could well be expectations management. But there are more than a thousand Lib Dem members who have signed the Lib Dem petition against the bill. On balance, I think it is more likely than not that the leadership escapes a defeat.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Osborne eager to act on 50p

From our UK edition

The debate on the 50p tax rate is moving fast. I was told by one Downing Street source today that ‘it is now more likely than not that it goes in the Budget.’ Now, obviously, there is a big caveat here. The Budget is not yet agreed: this is all subject to change. But I understand that the Chancellor is pushing hard to at least set out the roadmap to its abolition on the 21st March. I also hear that the Prime Minister is nervous about quite how determined Osborne is to do this. Cameron’s worry is that a Budget that tackles the 50p rate will be remembered solely for that — which would risk reinforcing the Tories’ reputation as the party of the rich.

Monday

James Forsyth

The government’s options for a child benefit tweak

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg has confirmed this morning that the coalition is looking at how to tweak its policy of removing child benefit from families in which someone pays the higher rate of income tax. As I wrote in the Mail on Sunday, there are three options being explored. The first is designed to address the fact that, a family where one parent works and earns £45,000 while the other stays at home raising the children would lose their child benefit while the one next door where both parents are on £40,000 would keep theirs. This change would see families with one higher rate taxpayer lose only half of their child benefit. But, I understand, that this is not the preferred tweak at the moment.

Peter Hoskin

Will Osborne accept the Lib Dem offer?

From our UK edition

Try telling George Osborne that ‘tax doesn't have to be taxing’ — I'm sure he'd laugh at the sentiment. The story this morning is that he has a grand, gritty choice to make ahead of the Budget: to tax income or to tax wealth. The Lib Dems have apparently agreed to relent on the 50p rate, but only if they get a mansion tax on properties worth over £2 million in return. The thinking is that, in the current political environment, the government must always be seen to be hitting the well-off in some way. So, will Osborne accept the offer? He and other Tories will certainly be tempted to do so.

Sunday

Jonathan Jones

Which tax cuts do the public want?

From our UK edition

YouGov’s new poll for the Sunday Times includes one set of numbers that will be of particular interest to George Osborne at the moment. It asks the public: ‘If the government has money available to cut taxes in the budget later this month which of the following tax cuts would you most like to see?’ Here are the results: With the news this week that fuel prices are at an all-time high and expected to rise further, it’s hardly surprising that the public support a cut in the taxes on it. The AA, among others, has already called on the Chancellor to abandon the 3p rise in line with inflation currently planned for August. Last week, Osborne didn’t sound terribly likely to bow to their demands, but as Pete said on Tuesday, he might surprise us still.

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

May’s quiet revolution

From our UK edition

Do you remember the great parliamentary battle over privatisation of police services? Me neither, which is why Theresa May, the Home Secretary, is proving a better minister than Andrew Lansley, the Health Secretary. The drive for savings in the police budget is leading two constabularies, West Midlands and Surrey, to outsource certain services. The Guardian has got hold of the tender documents and splashed with the story today. Yvette Cooper is angry — but, crucially, there’s nothing she can do. Theresa May doesn’t need legislation to enact this reform; it’s not even being done under orders of the Home Office. This is two police forces who would rather save money by outsourcing back office functions than cut at the frontline.

Friday

James Forsyth

After Hilton

From our UK edition

Perhaps, the greatest testament to Steve Hilton’s influence in Downing Street is that everyone chuckles when you ask if anyone will replace him. His role in Number 10 as the senior adviser was one he had carved out for himself so that he could work on what he wanted to. It is deliberately designed not to fit on any ‘org chart’, the kind of document that the post-bureaucratic Hilton has little patience for. Hilton was for years caricatured as being not really right-wing. But, in reality, the opposite is true — he was, in some ways, the most right-wing man in Downing Street. Few matched him on subjects like 50p tax and labour market regulation. The Lib Dems were right when they called him ‘Thatcher in a t-shirt’.

Fraser Nelson

The time for Osborne to shed Brown’s 50p rate is now

From our UK edition

Will George Osborne have a better chance to abolish the 50p tax than this month’s Budget? It would be unpopular, so it’s the kind of move he’d be unlikely to make before an election. The Lib Dems have something they want to trade: permission to raise the tax threshold towards £10,000. And two recent reports, by the CEBR (pdf) and IFS (pdf), have reinforced that this tax is losing money. At the heart of the 50p tax is a deeper question: is Osborne a transformative Chancellor who will change the terms of debate? Or is he doomed to operate within parameters set by Gordon Brown? I look at this in my Telegraph column today. Here are my main points:   1.