Barack obama

Gaddafi’s coming victory is a huge strategic setback for the West

From our UK edition

It now seems almost certain that Colonel Gaddafi will now not only survive in Libya but reassert control over the whole country. With the fall of Ajdabiya, there is no break between Gaddafi’s forces and the rebel capital of Benghazi. The window for international action is shutting rapidly, even if it has not yet closed. But, as so often, there seems to be no multilateral desire for action. Gaddafi’s triumph is a disaster for the Libyan people but also one of the biggest strategic set-backs the West has suffered in the post 9/11 world. Every dictator will now know that they can suppress a revolt with violence without fear of retribution.

Cameron’s call to the White House

From our UK edition

David Cameron’s statement on Libya today reflected his growing frustration at the pace at which the wheels of diplomacy are moving on this issue. In his statement, Cameron warned that ‘time is of essence’ and that Gaddafi staying in power, something Cameron had previously called ‘unthinkable’, would send a ‘dreadful signal’. Time, really, is of the essence. If we don’t see movement in the next few days, it seems almost inevitable that Gaddafi will crush the revolt. One of the things that Cameron stressed is that Gaddafi continuing in power would be more than a moral and humanitarian disaster.

Cameron’s principled stand over Libya

From our UK edition

Slowly, David Cameron seems to be mutating into a hawk over Libya. I've been increasingly impressed with the way he has made the case for a no-fly zone - knowing that it is an unpopular cause outside of the Arab world. Since the evacuation chaos, which he apologised for, he has pretty much led calls for some form of military intervention to stop Gaddafi bombing his own people back into submission. He was laughed at to start with; accused of making it up on the hoof. But now the 22-nation Arab League backs this position, as does Sarko. It may have been messy at first – but that’s how these things go. From the offset, Cameron was articulating a basic principle: we need to help the Libyan rebels, not sit and watch them get butchered.

The growing clamour for intervention

From our UK edition

In the last two days, Nato and European leaders have declared that Gaddafi must go, but both have baulked at taking unilateral action. Their reticence has sparked a response from those in favour of intervention. Speaking in Brussels today, David Cameron said that situation on the ground may be getting worse and that Europe and the West in general “must be ready to act if the situation requires it”. Liberal interventionist Bill Clinton went further. Speaking at the Women in the World summit, he said: “I wouldn’t do it if they [the rebels] hadn’t asked… [But] it’s not a fair fight. They’re being killed by mercenaries.

The forgotten war

From our UK edition

There is a war on. Not in Libya but in Helmand, where nearly 9,000 British troops are fighting. Last year was in fact the deadliest of more than nine years of war for Afghan civilians, the United Nations has just reported. You would not know it, though. For the events in North Africa have almost removed the issue entirely from the newspapers. When Hamid Karzai came through London recently, his visit barely registered. What a change from only half a year ago when every one of his idiosyncratic utterances would be replayed and over-analysed.   This may not be an altogether bad thing. Too much 24-hour coverage can make it a lot harder for people to get on with their jobs. When I was in Iraq, I remember people talking about "Washington time" and "Baghdad time".

UN or not UN?

From our UK edition

The garbled horror stories just keep on rolling out of Libya. According to the latest reports, Gaddafi's troops have attacked the rebels in Zawiyah with redoubled violence and force. Aircraft, tanks, bombs, mortars – all have been used against the city and its people, with what one assumes are bloody results. As one resident puts it to Reuters, "Zawiyah as you knew it no longer exists." It is unclear whether the rebels have now lost control there, but that is a strong possibility. Unsurprising, then, that the West is positioning itself to act. David Cameron, we are told, has been speaking with Barack Obama about the full spread of options before them.

Obama backs Cameron on no-fly zone

From our UK edition

Everyone knows that a media narrative is a difficult thing to change. So No.10 must be annoyed that so many newspapers, from the Telegraph to the Independent, are suggesting that David Cameron’s response to the Libya crisis has been “embarrassing,” and rejected by the US. But the Prime Minister would do well to stay the course and ignore the media for a number of reasons. First, just because US Defence Secretary Robert Gates is sceptical about a policy does not mean it is wrong. Somehow, the US Defence Secretary’s words are now taken as gospel in the British media and the PM is meant to repent immediately. Why? So what if the Pentagon chief has a view? While Robert Gates is rightly respected, he is not infallible.

What difference will sanctions make?

From our UK edition

Slowly, haltingly, the West decides what to do about Gaddafi. The latest news is that, having broken his silence over Libya a few days ago, Barack Obama is now imposing sanctions against its despicable regime: freezing assets, blocking transactions, that sort of thing. It follows a package of sanctions, including an arms embargo, that Britain and France have proposed to the UN. Although these sanctions are better than nothing – the West shouldn't house Gaddafi's slush funds, nor transfer weapons in his direction – they are of limited actual worth. Yesterday, the Mad Dog was parading the parapets once again, promising death for the protestors. You suspect he is unlikely to be put off by restrictions to his and his country's finances.

That Petraeus story

From our UK edition

Rumours abound that General David Petraeus will leave his post as commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan. Early editions of The Times quoted Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell saying that “General Petraeus is doing a brilliant job but he’s been going virtually non-stop since 9/11 [and] he can’t do it forever”. According to The Times, President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates are searching for a replacement. And, says the newspaper, there has apparently even been talk of Petraeus succeeding Gates as Defense Secretary. Really?

Obama’s budget proposes cuts

From our UK edition

President Obama’s new budget proposal is an interesting moment as Obama is now admitting that the time for fiscal stimulus has passed and that cuts needs to be made. As one administration official tells The New York Times, “The debate in Washington is not whether to cut or to spend… The question is how we cut and what we cut.” Interestingly, Obama has proposed a ratio of two third spending cuts and one third tax rises. By contrast, the bi-partisan Simpson Bowles commission on the deficit proposed something very similar to the 80 percent spending cuts, twenty percent tax rises model that Osborne is using.

It’s China’s world. We just live in it.

From our UK edition

Yesterday was momentous, but we should not lose sight of the head of the IMF saying that the Chinese renminbi could take steps to becoming a global reserve currency. To be specific: Dominique Strauss-Kahn has in mind adding renminbi to the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights system. In itself, no big deal - but a notable kiss being blown to Beijing. It fits a trend. The Chinese, notoriously, manipulate the value of their currency to keep their goods cheap, so they can’t have their currency treated with reserve status. But power is shifting - and America’s fiscal misbehaviour has unsettled international investors. John Peace, chairman of UK bank Standard Chartered, put it well the other day: “the last decade was characterized by ‘made in China’.

A businesslike State of the Union address

From our UK edition

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZ5DMpNznlA Jobs, people, work, new, years, make. You can get a good sense of Obama's State of the Union address purely from its most frequently used words. Yes, this one was all about the future, and – another popular word – "investing" in it. As the President himself put it, sounding like some freakish amalgam of David Cameron and Gordon Brown, "If we make the hard choices now to rein in our deficits, we can make the investments we need to win the future." The President wasn't short of ideas for the investment half of that equation, even if – as others have noted – there was an absence of specifics.

“Our democracy to be as good as she imagined it”

From our UK edition

President Obama rode to power on his rhetoric. Yesterday, for the first time in months, he rekindled that initial spark to speak to the nation – and the world – about loss, democracy and the compassion that is needed for a society to work. You can watch the full speech above. To me, though, this passage was particularly affecting: "I believe we can be better.  Those who died here, those who saved lives here – they help me believe.  We may not be able to stop all evil in the world, but I know that how we treat one another is entirely up to us.  I believe that for all our imperfections, we are full of decency and goodness, and that the forces that divide us are not as strong as those that unite us.

Will he be back?

From our UK edition

Clichéd, for sure, but it is the line that's tagged every story about Arnold Schwarzenegger's departure from office. Will Arnie return to the political fray or enjoy a sun-kissed retirement? The odds of a return to office are long. California, the state that did most to shape America's self-image in the 20th century, is now like former movie stars who eke out an existence in Hollywood's run-down parts - they once had it all but have since lost both looks and love. Fair or not - the Californian governor doesn't have as much power as his peers. Voters give Schwarzenegger part of the blame for the state's mess; his approval ratings on his last day in office were as bad as those of the governor he defeated in a recall election, Gray Davis.

Top Republican prepares to leave Obama’s big tent

From our UK edition

When John Huntsman, the Republican governor of Utah, accepted Barack Obama’s offer of the ambassadorship to China it seemed to be further evidence that Obama was going to be a two term president. The ambitious Huntsman, who would stand a good chance in a Republican primary, appeared to have decided that the nomination in 2012 wasn’t worth having. So it is a sign of the shifting political tide that Huntsman is now indicating that he may resign as ambassador to China soon and run for the Republican nomination. With Obama’s approval rating now significantly below 50 percent, the Republican nomination is now a far more appealing prize. There is, unusually for the Republicans, no clear front-runner.

A handful of predictions

From our UK edition

Here we go. Spurred on by Pete earlier, it's time for that essential, although often regrettable, end-of-year ritual. Not the prosecco-fuelled partying, but rather something with far more embarrassment potential: predictions for next year. That's right, amateur guesswork dressed up as serious-ish journalism. Some scribes are better at this than others. Ex-blogger Iain Dale hit the nail on the head by predicting the election of Ed Miliband as Labour leader. In a German aquarium, Paul the Octopus nailed all eight of his predictions for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. By contrast, Mike Adams from NaturalNews probably ought to stop trying to channel Nostradamus. Last year, he predicted that nuclear weapons would be unleashed in the Middle East.

Obama STARTs anew

From our UK edition

Barack Obama has had a great couple of weeks. First DADT was repealed and then START was ratified by the Senate, safeguarding a major Obama foreign policy initiative In truth, both issues are peripheral to voter concerns. To them, the jobless recovery is what matters. New figures show that the unemployment rate in the US has jumped to a seven-month high of 9.8 per cent. Nor did the White House get all it wanted from Congress recently. As the Senate was debating DADT, the House of Representatives killed a provision in a defence bill to transfer detainees from Guantanamo to the US. But in politics having momentum - the Big Mo - is one of the most important, if intangible, factors. Recently, Obama could not even find Lil' Mo, Big Mo's smaller brother.

Gay America rejoices

From our UK edition

This week will give Barack Obama's liberal credentials a significant boost. On December 18th, the Senate had a  successful cloture vote in favour of a bill to repeal "Don't ask, don't tell". DADT as it is commonly known restricts the US military from trying to discover or reveal closeted gay, lesbian, and bisexual service members, while it bars those who are openly gay, lesbian, or bisexual from military service. The bill has now passed in both Houses of Congress and it only awaits President Obama's signature. As my friend R.

Holbrooke’s war ends

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He was known as brash and abrasive. A gale force wind. The "bulldozer" some called him based on his time bullying Slobodan Milosevic during the Dayton negotiations to end the Bosnian War in the 1990s. However, veteran US diplomat Richard Holbrooke, who died last night, had a far greater register. When he visited London before assuming his latest post, as President Obama's AfPak envoy, he surprised the US embassy staff by travelling alone, with no bag-carrying entourage, and exhibiting none of the airs he was expected to have. His first experience of the Balkans was not as the all-mighty diplomatic trouble-shooter, but as a normal citizen eager to highlight the plight of the refugees. He braved sniper fire and dangerous roads to document Yugoslavia’s tragedy.

US Middle East initiative takes early holiday

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When the Obama administration started its latest Middle East initiative, it was amid great fanfare. I blogged – sceptically -- about the optimism exuding from the State Department at the time. Now, however, the US government has given up its push for a freeze in Jewish settlement construction as quietly as possible. As Martin Indyk of the Brookings Institution puts it: “The Middle East peace process just died, but nobody seems to be in mourning. Twenty months of U.S. efforts to freeze Israeli settlement activity to create a conducive environment for negotiations have produced only deadlock.