Europe

It took them 13 hours, but eurozone leaders have finally agreed to use bailout funds to recapitalise banks directly. The deal, which was reached at 4am (David Cameron had gone to bed at 1am because this is a eurozone, not EU matter), involved Germany giving in to the demands of Italy and Spain. You can read the statement from the euro area leaders here, but essentially what it says is that the refinancing will not take place until a single banking supervisor is set up, to be run by the European Central Bank. This was originally going to be a long-term project, but leaders have now set a deadline of the end of this year for everything to be up and running.

Just when the whips were sighing with relief that Europe has been pushed down the agenda by Lords reform, a rather awkward letter from over 100 Tory MPs flops on to the Prime Minister's doormat. ConHome has the scoop this morning that John Baron has brought together a large group of MPs  who are calling for legislation to be written that ensures there will be a referendum in the next Parliament on the issue. When I spoke to Baron earlier, he told me that four more have joined, although he has agreed with colleagues that the full list of names will be known only to him and the Prime Minister.

Two issues are dominating Number 10’s thinking at the moment: Europe and the cost of living. How to deal with Europe is the biggest strategic challenge facing David Cameron. Cameron has to work out how to use this moment to advance the British national interest. But he also knows that Europe is an issue that could split the coalition and the Tory party.   Inside Number 10, it seems that it is becoming a question of when to announce a referendum not whether to call one. As I say in the Mail on Sunday today, senior figures there are pushing for the Tory commitment to a future referendum on the EU to be brought forward from the manifesto to this year’s conference season.

There has been much speculation that Labour might insist on a referendum on Europe. This has been fuelled by numerous factors: the parlous state of the Eurozone, the increasingly likelihood of a 2-speed Europe and, above all, the fact that David Cameron doesn’t want the Tories to ‘bang on about Europe’, especially when in coalition with the Lib Dems. There have been a series of high-profile Labour interventions on the subject in recent weeks. Both Peter Mandelson and Ed Balls, arch-schemers both, have mulled the question in public, and the appointment of Jon Cruddas, a pronounced Eurosceptic, as the party’s policy reviewer, tickled fancies still further.

There is now a general acceptance that the Tories’ 2015 election manifesto will contain a pledge, dare one say a cast-iron guarantee, that voters will be offered a referendum on Britain’s relationship with the EU. James first revealed this in his magazine column a few weeks ago. The aim is to see off the surge from UKIP, prevent Labour from opportunistically seeking Eurosceptic ground, and to counter Boris Johnson’s popular adoption of the People’s Pledge. Since then it has been taken as read that George Osborne is responsible for this gambit, which is reasonable given that he is the Tories’ chief strategist, and a likely contender in a future leadership bid.

The Government takes a lot of stick for blaming the weather when there are queues at airports or lacklustre growth figures. Now the European Union is blaming a ‘colder winter’, as well as ‘economic recovery in many countries’, for emissions in 2010 being 111 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent higher – about 2.4 per cent –than they were in 2009. They are insistent that ‘the increase could have been even higher without the fast expansion of renewable energy. ’ Looking at the record of emissions in the European Union and the United States though, it is clear there is a deeper problem.

So Nick Clegg wants to present himself as anti-Establishment, does he? That’s hardly surprising. After all, the Deputy Prime Minister has ploughed this furrow before now, attacking the ‘vested interests’ that are the banks and the political class. And it’s generally a large part of the Lib Dems’ ‘differentiation strategy’ to come across as insurgents in suits. But Clegg’s comments today are still striking for how far they weaponise this theme and then turn it against the Tories. It’s not just the context of it: with Tory ministers — including Jeremy Hunt — appearing before Leveson this week, Clegg chooses to attack those who ‘bow and scrape in front of Rupert Murdoch’.

There are calls for Britain to pull out of the Eurovision Song Contest, after Engelbert Humperdinck finished second-last on Saturday, with Norway bottom. The Mayor of Leicester has today denounced Eurovision, saying: ‘The politics of Europe — which countries are friendly with which others — has a lot more to do with it than the quality of the songs.’ I agree: politics are involved and it is outrageous. Had George Osborne not given Ireland that £3.2 billion loan we would not have had its four points and Britain would be where it deserved: at the very bottom. We were dismal, and in the eyes of half a billion people. But the solution is not to withdraw from Eurovision. The solution is to properly compete.

Nick Clegg did not show his Berlin speech on the Euro crisis to Number 10 or the Foreign Office before releasing it to the media. This is quite remarkable. Up to now, there has been a recognition that while the Liberal Democrats may try and differentiate themselves from the Prime Minister on various things, the government must speak with one voice on the deficit reduction strategy and foreign policy. No credible country can afford to send mixed messages to either the bond markets or foreign governments. Clegg’s freelancing on this issue is a reminder of how Europe remains the biggest ideological fault-line in the coalition. When David Cameron formed the government, he hoped that the whole Europe issue could be parked until he had a majority of his own.

Theresa May’s suggestion that Britain could suspend the free movement of people in the event of a Eurozone break up is a reminder of just how transformative an event the falling apart of the single currency would be. The Home Secretary is a cautious politician who picks her word carefully, so when she says that the government ‘will be doing contingency planning’ about the immigration implications of a Eurozone break-up you know it is serious. One of the things that makes this such an intriguing development is that it suggests a shift in government thinking on the severity of the crisis that could be coming.

Fred Michel’s testimony this morning at the Leveson Inquiry was embarrassing but not devastating. The texts between him and Jeremy Hunt are cringe-worthy but my read is that the Culture Secretary is not in a weaker position than he was this morning. More important for Hunt’s survival prospect is the appearance of his former spad Adam Smith this afternoon. The question is, did Hunt not know of the extent of contact between Smith and Michel? Everything going on at Leveson, though, is a sideshow compared to the economic news and the storm brewing on the continent. On that note, it does seem odd that Nick Clegg is suggesting that the seventy percent of German voters who would like Greece to leave the euro are irrational.