2024 election

Melania Trump might not return to DC full-time for Trump’s possible second term, according to Axios. The article is predicated on a survey of a “handful of Melania-ologists,” because a spokesperson for Melania didn’t respond to Axios’s request for comment. As the article mentioned: “Melania does what Melania wants” — and Cockburn doesn’t blame her one bit. In February, when asked if Melania would be on the campaign trail much, Donald Trump said: “She was a very successful model, very, very successful, and yet she was a private person. She’s going to be out a lot. Not because she likes doing it, but she likes the results.” The former first lady, however, has not been in attendance at most of Trump’s campaign events.

It's been twelve years since the infamous moment when CNN's Candy Crowley interjected herself into the presidential debate between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, providing a live "fact check" which was, in reality, her factually inaccurate opinion.  The moment was embarrassing enough that debate commission co-chair Frank Fahrenkopf would later describe their selection of Crowley as a moderator as a "mistake"; she was widely criticized for both inserting herself too much into the debate and letting it get out of hand.

Donald Trump spoke at the Faith and Freedom Coalition on Saturday, with a few speakers deeming him “the anointed one.” Trump spoke for approximately one hour and twenty-five minutes. The coalition slotted multiple hype-men right before he appeared, including Republican governor Kristi Noem. The former president hit all his usual talking points — the economy, the border and immigration, Joe Biden, Ukraine, Israel, his cute "tic-tac" trick — and made sure to mention the Ten Commandments, and said, “We answer to God in heaven,” not to political leaders. There were at least two impressive instances in which Trump expertly responded to the inclinations of the crowd.

The upcoming June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the first of its kind — a former president debating a current president, with a massive list of subjects to animate the discourse. But there is one topic in particular that moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash must bring up if this debate is to have any respectability from the voters: they must confront Joe Biden about his lies in the 2020 debates. These lies have been acknowledged publicly by Tapper at least, and by Bash to a lesser degree.

President Joe Biden spoke in Normandy on the eightieth anniversary of D-Day Thursday — and only slightly made a fool of himself. As he entered the event, it looked as if he entirely missed where he was supposed to sit, but played it off with a nice salute to a veteran. In the middle of a rousing speech, he talked about how many Russians died in Ukraine... for mysterious reasons. He did a bit of a squat in an invisible chair as the speaker Lloyd J. Austin III was introduced. The debacle ended with Dr. Jill Biden leading Joe away as the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, nimbly ran to greet D-Day veterans. And we can’t forget Biden’s subtle double fist pump after the jets flew over the ceremony.

In a desperate attempt to get the attention of young voters, the Biden for President campaign is looking to hire a full-time manager of meme pages for up to $85,000 a year. Job requirements include “deep expertise of the digital media landscape” and the capability to “identify internet trends and/or opportunities for content.” In other words: be good at memes. Though Cockburn wonders whether the move is more innovative or absurd. The political meme game between Biden and Trump up to this point has been both ironic and noteworthy. "Let’s Go Brandon" was countered with "Dark Brandon" — which was also a response to the "dark Trump" meme.

Ideally, responsible citizens would think big when deciding on a presidential candidate. But the election outcome may just be determined by one factor: gas prices.  In a CNN article this week, economist Mark Zandi asserted that gas prices were likely to determine election results. On Tuesday, Biden announced his release of a million barrels of reserve gasoline. Even with the many factors that affect oil prices, it may be possible to predict where prices will be come November and if that can tell us who will win the presidency. Zandi and his colleagues from Moody’s Analytics (Brendan Lacerda and Justin Begley) published a nineteen-page econometric analysis in January.

Who has a better chance of passing a drug test, Joe Biden or Hunter? At this point, Cockburn thinks it's probably a coin toss. What he’d rather know is what the president is doped up on in his more energetic moments. Thanks to an online betting platform, voters can now gamble on which drug they think Biden is using.   “BetOnline.ag, which infamously set odds on who the White House cocaine belonged to, has created a wagering market for which drug Biden will test positive for,” Josh Barton, a BetOnline rep, told Cockburn. So far, the odds favor amphetamine followed by methamphetamine. Bettors think Biden is poppin' more Adderall than a college student during finals week.

What began on Wednesday morning as a cringy campaign video has resulted in an official debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Both candidates have agreed to appear in a June 27 debate hosted by CNN and a second on September 10 hosted by ABC. The announcements came after Biden said on Wednesday that he will not participate in debates hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates and instead proposed face-offs with Trump in June and September moderated by news organizations. Hours later, Biden accepted an offer from CNN to host the first debate. “Donald Trump lost two debates to me in 2020. Since then, he hasn’t shown up for a debate. Now he’s acting like he wants to debate me again,” Biden bragged in a video posted to X.

The Donald Trump campaign is not an organized effort with which I typically agree or endorse, but their latest statement, put out in response to a position taken by the Commission on Presidential Debates, isn't just on point — it's essential to understanding the reason Americans distrust our government and process. Let's rewind for a second. In 2020, the Commission on Presidential Debates (average age: recently deceased) engaged in one of the most public displays of misinformation, obfuscation and lying that we have ever seen in the context of an election. When then C-SPAN host Steve Scully was caught tweeting blatantly inappropriate question gathering to Anthony Scaramucci days before a debate he was supposed to moderate, the CPD went into full protection mode.

The betting market often provides different insights from traditional polling. While most polls presently have Donald Trump with a slight lead over Joe Biden, election betting tells a different story.  After months floundering, Biden is now the best bet for the 2024 election, according to data from OddsChecker, a British company that compares odds in everything from esports to American politics. OddsChecker has Biden winning the election, marking the first time since September 2023 that he has surpassed Trump: according to the website, Biden now stands a 46 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 43.8 percent. The website also has Michelle Obama currently beating RFK Jr. for third place.