2024 campaign

After Thursday’s fiasco in Atlanta, Joe Biden faces two hard choices. The hardest — and grimmest — is whether to stay in the race. Staying in means ignoring the rising chorus of calls to withdraw, not from the opposing party but from flaks on his own side, led by the New York Times. The only groups that haven’t issued that call, so far, are his party’s leadership on Capitol Hill and the two former Democratic presidents. They see the same problems everyone else does, but they probably think it is too late to force Joe out without catastrophic costs — and may be impossible because Joe simply won’t leave.  Second, if Joe does stay in the race, his campaign strategy has to change.

In the aftermath of the worst debate performance by an incumbent president in American history, the media is already scrambling for a storyline about what went wrong with their chosen candidate. Their frame of argument goes like this: we love Joe Biden, he’s the best, his presidency is an enormous success, but really, someone at the White House should have told us that he was this ludicrously old. How were we to know? Shame on them. This narrative is a blatant lie. The truth is that if the media conglomerates had been honest with the voters a year ago, they would not be in this predicament today, nor would the country be saddled with an mentally addled, barely ambulatory octogenarian as the candidate of the major party media members overwhelmingly support.

Melania Trump might not return to DC full-time for Trump’s possible second term, according to Axios. The article is predicated on a survey of a “handful of Melania-ologists,” because a spokesperson for Melania didn’t respond to Axios’s request for comment. As the article mentioned: “Melania does what Melania wants” — and Cockburn doesn’t blame her one bit. In February, when asked if Melania would be on the campaign trail much, Donald Trump said: “She was a very successful model, very, very successful, and yet she was a private person. She’s going to be out a lot. Not because she likes doing it, but she likes the results.” The former first lady, however, has not been in attendance at most of Trump’s campaign events.

It's that time of year again: Hillary Clinton has surfaced from her Chappaqua estate to weigh in on politics with vindictive fury. This time she’s billing herself as the expert for Thursday’s presidential debate in a New York Times op-ed. Since Clinton is the only person to have debated both candidates — Joe Biden during the 2008 Democratic primary and Donald Trump during the 2016 election — she reasons she has the unique credentials to analyze the match. Given that she failed to win both races, however, Cockburn thinks it’s a bit rich for Clinton to be offering advice. Ever the ruling class elite trying to seem relatable, Clinton began her op-ed recounting the “time of her life” she had at the Tony Awards last week.

It was September of 2014 and Republicans were very nervous. A new poll showed Kansas senator Pat Roberts trailing his independent challenger Greg Orman by seven points. The GOP needed a net gain of six seats to win the Senate majority — and the last thing they needed to worry about was Democrats ousting one of their incumbents. The party called in Chris LaCivita, a retired Marine and longtime Republican operative with a reputation for taking no prisoners, to turn the race around. “Months out from Election Day, LaCivita went to the NRSC [National Republican Senatorial Committee] and said, ‘Tell me what I need to know about this race because I’m flying out tomorrow and we’re gonna fuck shit up,’” a GOP consultant recalled.

The upcoming June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the first of its kind — a former president debating a current president, with a massive list of subjects to animate the discourse. But there is one topic in particular that moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash must bring up if this debate is to have any respectability from the voters: they must confront Joe Biden about his lies in the 2020 debates. These lies have been acknowledged publicly by Tapper at least, and by Bash to a lesser degree.

In the same building where he once descended down a golden elevator and embarked on a campaign that would forever change American politics, this morning Donald Trump lumbered up to the mic in New York City to launch napalm at all his enemies, particularly Judge Juan Merchan, Alvin Bragg and Michael Cohen — who he didn't mention by name, other than calling him a "sleazebag" and saying that he didn't qualify as a "fixer." The idea of a gag order for this man is so ridiculous, I love that they even tried to do it. It was classic Trump: meandering, angry, darkly comic, rhetorical guns blasting away at everyone around him, golden hair blown out and wearing a bright crimson tie as wide as his head.

Future historians, psephologists, and political analysts, searching for the day and time that Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign imploded beyond recovery, are likely to settle on Thursday May 23, 2024, at approximately 7 p.m. It was then that Trump’s surprising rally in Crotona Park in the South Bronx really got underway. I didn’t hear any actual bells tolling, but if you listened carefully you could discern the mournful obligato that signaled the end of Joe Biden’s hopes in New York — and therefore the country. No Republican has taken New York since Ronald Reagan’s great landslide in 1984. Why then would Trump waste time coming to the South Bronx? Because, to adapt Bob Dylan, "The Times They Are A Changin’." Joe Biden won New York in 2020 by twenty-three points.

What began on Wednesday morning as a cringy campaign video has resulted in an official debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Both candidates have agreed to appear in a June 27 debate hosted by CNN and a second on September 10 hosted by ABC. The announcements came after Biden said on Wednesday that he will not participate in debates hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates and instead proposed face-offs with Trump in June and September moderated by news organizations. Hours later, Biden accepted an offer from CNN to host the first debate. “Donald Trump lost two debates to me in 2020. Since then, he hasn’t shown up for a debate. Now he’s acting like he wants to debate me again,” Biden bragged in a video posted to X.

President Biden just made a strong move against Israel, ordering the US government to stop shipping weapons supplies to the Israeli Defense Forces. It was his fine strategic mind at work, once again.  Usually the public defers to the president and his advisors on foreign policy, unless the issues become very prominent or the president forfeits their trust. Those are the two problems now facing the Biden administration. The war in Gaza is a major issue — and the public has zero confidence in Joe’s strategic wisdom. He lost the public’s confidence on that score after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the failed attempts to appease Iran. Now, they are unlikely to defer to his judgment in distancing himself from Israel, America’s greatest ally in the region.

The Donald Trump campaign is not an organized effort with which I typically agree or endorse, but their latest statement, put out in response to a position taken by the Commission on Presidential Debates, isn't just on point — it's essential to understanding the reason Americans distrust our government and process. Let's rewind for a second. In 2020, the Commission on Presidential Debates (average age: recently deceased) engaged in one of the most public displays of misinformation, obfuscation and lying that we have ever seen in the context of an election. When then C-SPAN host Steve Scully was caught tweeting blatantly inappropriate question gathering to Anthony Scaramucci days before a debate he was supposed to moderate, the CPD went into full protection mode.

The betting market often provides different insights from traditional polling. While most polls presently have Donald Trump with a slight lead over Joe Biden, election betting tells a different story.  After months floundering, Biden is now the best bet for the 2024 election, according to data from OddsChecker, a British company that compares odds in everything from esports to American politics. OddsChecker has Biden winning the election, marking the first time since September 2023 that he has surpassed Trump: according to the website, Biden now stands a 46 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 43.8 percent. The website also has Michelle Obama currently beating RFK Jr. for third place.