Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

The integrity of the Constitution must be protected

As I write this, the outcome of the US presidential election remains undecided. To judge by media reports, it may take days to determine who the winner is. A few quick observations: The pollsters got it wrong again. Forty-eight hours ago, the chatter was all about a Democratic landslide. Observers were confidently speculating about who would land the top jobs in a Biden administration. I don’t pretend to understand the science of polling. But I know a bankrupt enterprise when I see one. Many observers worried about a close election with no clear outcome leading to a constitutional crisis of some sort. The wilder and more irresponsible speculation imagined US troops being summoned to intervene and sort matters out. It grieves me to say that such scenarios remain possible.

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remarkable

Donald Trump’s remarkable victory

Despite the suspension of vote-counting in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin, President Trump leads in all of those states by substantial margins compared to the number of ballots to be counted and has almost certainly been reelected, bringing the Senate and some House gains behind him. That he has done this in the teeth of the pathological hatred of 95 percent of the American national political media and Hollywood, Silicon Valley and most of Wall Street is an astonishing achievement. One would ransack the British media unsuccessfully trying to find a trace of the fact that he has had the most successful first term of any American president except Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Nixon.

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Trump will sweep the remaining battleground states

As of 1:00 a.m. on Election Night, assuming Montana and Alaska go to Donald Trump and Nevada goes to Joe Biden, the presidential race sits at a standstill with Joe Biden at 243 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 216 electoral votes. Ignoring the single electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska, that leaves five states left to be awarded. The focus over the next two days will be on how many votes are left to count compared to what the current margins between the two candidates are in those states.Here is a breakdown and what Biden needs to do to overcome the Trump leads in the remaining five states, with my prediction on what likely will occur:Georgia (16 electoral votes)With 82 percent of precincts reporting, Trump leads by 310,107 votes out of 4,108,591 total votes cast.

Extraordinary delusions and the madness of crowds, New York Times edition

Anyone who wants to peek into the engine room of the mainstream media’s megalomania should pay close attention to the Twitter account of the New York Times. You have to act fast, though, because some of the most revelatory tweets soon disappear like dew on a feminist’s jackboot. No, silly, those messages are not suppressed by Twitter.  This is the New York Times, after all, warden of wokeness, prefect of political correctness. The commissars of conformity running Twitter exist to enforce the dispensation smiled upon by the New York Times and other unofficial outposts of Democratic machine, not silence them. But every now and then the Times, like other such tools of The Narrative, fail to observe the important advice offered by Gertrude Stein.

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Will the Plywood Party win?

As has been my habit for the last few presidential elections, the afternoon of Election Day found me in Manhattan at a discreet, semi-secure, undisclosed location for a long and thoughtful lunch. The 2016 iteration of this ceremony was exceedingly thoughtful and found some of our party pushing luncheon well into tea time. Indeed, it was about 11:30 p.m. on election night 2016 when, smiling in front of my computer, I had a call from the last hold out from our band of what Athenaeus called Δειπνοσοφισταί, 'learned banqueters’, still brightening the corridors of our place of congregation.

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Pre-election perspectives from Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh On the eve of the 2020 election, as President Trump and former VP Joe Biden are neck-in-neck, Pennsylvania is emerging as the most significant state. Pollsters and pundits predict that, as this crucial swing state goes, so will the nation. On Saturday, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the city’s leading local newspaper, endorsed Donald Trump, the first time it has endorsed a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. Four years ago, talking with Western Pennsylvanians at random revealed unlikely pockets of support for Trump. Synthesizing interviews, voter registration patterns and breaking news, I speculated Pennsylvania would pivot red — and it did.

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My final election prediction: Trump 305 to Biden 233

I’m doubling down. In 2016, against virtually all of the polling data and sophisticated analysis, I predicted Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton 280 to 258. To the shock of the world, he ended up winning 304 to 277. Four years later, the world finds itself again facing an American presidential election in which the vast majority of polling data and prognosticators indicate a Joe Biden win by a fairly solid majority. At last check, the polling aggregator at RealClearPolitics puts Biden ahead nationally 51 percent to 44.3 percent and in top battleground states 48.9 percent to 46 percent, which would give Biden a 335 to 203 electoral victory. The latest betting odds show Biden favored 64.3 percent to 34.8 percent.

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The red wave is inbound

So, the party of peace and love is planing to riot in New York, Washington and other places where their acolytes have critical mass. They’ve put the world on notice about that. And they’ve been assiduous in pushing a rationale: that the polls all along have had Joe Biden ahead. Ergo, if Joe Biden loses, it will be because Trump stole the election. This tweet sums up the logic: 'Polls released now on the eve of the Election are predictive polls & no longer "snapshot in time" polls. If @JoeBiden leads by double digits, but @realDonaldTrump somehow "wins" by a point or two, it won’t be the polls that are wrong — the fix will be in.' https://twitter.com/AmandiOnAir/status/1322378847711563776 There is a bonus, too.

Democrats get last-minute election jitters

The Biden campaign is far from confident heading into Tuesday's election and their behavior proves it. It's not uncommon for campaigns to blitz multiple states with television ads and rally appearances in the final few days before the election; Trump, for example, has been holding multiple rallies per day in key swing states. However, Biden's last minute rush to turn out the vote stands in stark contrast to his months-long strategy of sitting back and letting Trump talk his way out of victory. Clearly the campaign is feeling some serious unease with the latest polls and is second guessing keeping Joe in the basement for so long.

Why Joe Biden will win tomorrow

Joe Biden is going to win. I have been wrong before. I will be wrong again. And maybe I’m wrong today. But we do not have any significant data to suggest Donald Trump was ever in a position to win reelection, or that he is closing the campaign with any sort of momentum needed for a come-from-behind victory. Four years ago, we did have such data. In the RealClearPolitics national polling average, Hillary Clinton’s lead shrunk nearly six percentage points between October 18 and November 3, before ticking up a bit at the end. Her share of support throughout the duration of the general election campaign never reached 50 percent, an indication of soft support.

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Kamala Harris vs James Madison

If Joe Biden loses the presidential election tomorrow, he will not have any shortage of people to blame. The first culprit will be himself. Why did he do it? Why did he run? There are some vigorous 78-year-olds. Joe Biden is not among them. Physically, he’s ready for a nice cup of Ovaltine, not the Oval Office. In the matter of stamina, it is unfair to measure most people against Donald Trump. The man is a machine. As Ann Althouse pointed out, the President visited five states yesterday, covering about 3,000 miles. Joe traveled to two quiet events in one state some 30 miles from his home. William Blake was on to something when he observed that 'Energy is eternal delight.’ Joe Biden is a faltering battery, a flaccid string. Donald Trump is a dynamo.

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Will America succumb to safetyism? 

The outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election will reveal whether the feminized, therapeutic culture of the university has become the dominant force in the American psyche.During the last eight months of coronavirus panic, a remarkable number of Americans have deliberately — one might even say, ecstatically — embraced fear over fact. They have shut their ears to the data, available since March, showing how demographically circumscribed the lethal threat from coronavirus infection is: concentrated among the very elderly and those with multiple and serious preexisting health conditions. A remarkable number of Americans have voluntarily cowered in their homes despite the lack of a scientific basis for doing so.

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American Weimar or American Hapsburg?

Aaron Sibarium has written a fascinating article for American Purpose on the parallels between the current American republic and the Weimar republic. It’s worth reading on its own merits as a history lesson, as a reminder that no people is immune to time and tide, as a reflection on how democracy can turn into disaster. It’s worth reading even if you disagree, as I do.

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momentum

Trump has the momentum in the final week

I don’t believe in astrology, but, if I did, I’d have to say the stars are aligning for Donald Trump in the last 10 days of this tumultuous election. Beginning with the second presidential debate where Trump finally displayed presidential behavior and Joe Biden expressly proclaimed his goal to transition away from oil (i.e., kill it), virtually every unfolding event has aided Trump’s cause for reelection. Though he still might not win, the momentum is clearly behind Trump as Election Day nears.First, Biden’s comment on energy at the last debate certainly hurt him with energy industry workers and their families in western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, Texas, New Mexico and Colorado.

The Philly riots could throw Pennsylvania to Trump

Rioters and looters in Philadelphia may have just paved Trump's road to victory in Pennsylvania. Biden helped last week when he admitted during the final presidential debate that he wanted to phase out US oil production. It was a boneheaded thing to say while trying to court blue-collar Americans in swing states, many of whom work in the energy sector. Now, Trump also has the 'law and order' narrative on his side. Walter Wallace Jr, a 27-year-old black man, was shot and killed by police in Philadelphia on Monday. It only took until that evening for protests to turn to looting and rioting. Just like in Minneapolis, Atlanta, Portland and other major cities, businesses were destroyed and individuals were harmed.

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Back to work with Donald Trump and the Pennsylvania Dutch

Lititz, PennsylvaniaMy family considers it a bit unfair that I’m the one who got to go to the Trump rally in Lancaster, Pennsylvania on Monday, given that I like him least of all of us and I don’t usually write about politics. But I live nearby and am unscrupulous about knocking off my day job, so The Spectator got me a press pass. By noon on Monday I was safely installed in a socially-distanced airplane hangar, bopping along with Elton John, waiting with everyone else for the President to arrive and wondering what he might say to my deeply-divided homeland. Of course he opens with a shout-out to the Amish. Look, I understand that most people know exactly one thing about Lancaster County, but can’t we leave the Amish out of this one?

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Morning in America or mourning in America?

In the countdown to Election Day, the two campaigns are taking starkly different approaches.Joe Biden is sitting on a lead in the polls, trying to run out the clock, while Donald Trump is making a frenzied dash for the finish line, selling optimism.Both strategies make sense.Like a football team leading in the final quarter, Biden’s goal is simply to keep the clock ticking down to zero. Nothing fancy. Just avoid mistakes and prevent the other team from getting the ball back.To avoid those mistakes, Biden is rarely leaving his basement. When he does, his goal is less to rouse voters than to prove he’s still alive and capable of traveling across state lines. He speaks to small crowds and says whatever’s on the teleprompter.

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Tony Bobulinski and implausible deniability

It turns out that the 2020 US presidential election is not between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as we have been told. It is not even between Donald Trump and The Committee, that shadow compact of left-wing actors who settle on Biden as the most acceptable face for their radical make-America-over agenda. Everyone who gives the matter a moment’s thought knows that a vote for Joe Biden is really just a proxy vote for Kamala Harris. But last night, Fox News aired an extraordinary interview that Tucker Carlson conducted with Tony Bobulinski, a former naval officer who had been tapped by the Bidens, Hunter and Joe’s brother Jim, to be CEO of a financial company they were attempting to put together. Watch it here (unless YouTube has taken it down).