Election

It’s impossible to avoid the conclusion that Gavin Newsom is shifting toward the middle in preparation for a national campaign. The only question is how soon that campaign will emerge — and whether his decisions will lead to animosity from the cultural left that could bar him from the Democratic nomination, or help him find success with more mainstream voters found in states outside of California. The most prominent recent decision was Newsom’s decision to veto a bill requiring parental affirmation of trans identification in the context of child custody disputes — one that was passed by a party line vote of 57-16 in the Democrat-dominated California Assembly.

Presidential candidates don’t normally receive Secret Service protection until the summer before the election. But these are not normal times. They are dangerous ones — for candidates, elected officials and federal judges. When candidates face lethal threats, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did last week, it’s time to give them protection. The decision is up to President Biden. If he orders the Secret Service to protect Kennedy, it’s done. If not, not. And “not” is Biden’s current decision. It’s a dangerous, mean-spirited political calculation. Political? Yes, surrounding Kennedy with a Secret Service detail elevates his status as a serious candidate. That doesn’t help Biden’s own candidacy.

Abortion was the single biggest issue that led to Donald Trump winning the 2016 election. It may be the single biggest issue that leads him to lose in 2024. The death of Antonin Scalia in Texas in February of 2016 set the presidential election in stark relief. Effectively, voters were asked not just to name the next president, but to decide simultaneously the immediate future of the Supreme Court. Elect Hillary Clinton and you get a Court that will enshrine abortion for eternity; elect Trump and the possibility that Roe v. Wade could be reversed in the decade to come stays alive. This is one of the reasons that Trump, a lifelong limousine liberal on issues like abortion, went so hard into the paint on the topic.

President Biden has declared he’s running for a second term, but it’s far from certain he actually will. His infirmity and low poll numbers raise serious doubts. His physical decline shows when he walks or climbs the stairs of Air Force One. His cognitive decline shows when he refuses to hold press conferences or answer even the simplest questions, like how he feels about the devastating fires in Maui. His decline in the public’s estimation shows when pollsters ask Americans how they’re doing. Four out of five answer, “Not good. Not good at all.” Voters also say they don’t want another general election choice like the last one. So many votes in 2020 were negative ones “against the worse candidate,” not in favor of the better one.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin America’s front-runners share a winning debate strategy: don’t turn up. Much as Joe Biden is dodging the chance to share a stage with Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — because why would you? — Donald Trump opted to skip out on the Republican National Committee and Fox News’s first debate in Milwaukee.  Trump is still aggrieved by what he perceives as the network’s ill treatment of him, both in its “early” — but correct — call of Arizona in the 2020 election and its coverage since: there is a palpable yearning among executives to “move on” from Trump.

Just call him Dunk Burgum! North Dakota governor Doug Burgum suffered a late setback on the eve of the first Republican presidential debate. Burgum was whisked off to the ER Tuesday night, according to CNN’s Dana Bash, after “suffering an injury while playing a game of pick-up basketball with his staff.” The rumor on the ground in Milwaukee is that Burgum has injured his Achilles, per Cockburn’s spies, throwing his appearance at tonight’s debate into doubt. Cockburn has reached out to the Burgum campaign for confirmation. Billionaire Burgum made a surge for the debate stage thanks to a creative fundraising scheme that saw a $1 donation rewarded with a $20 gift card. Could that mega-splurge have been in vain?

The Republican National Committee confirmed late Monday night the presidential candidates who would face each other in Wednesday night’s debate. They are: North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, former vice president Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina senator Tim Scott. Former president Donald Trump, who leads every poll comfortably, will not be in attendance. Trump had hoped to send surrogates to vouch on his behalf in the spin room — which, in an apparent tribute to Watergate, will be in the players' parking garage of the Fiserv Forum.

Des Moines, Iowa This isn’t your grandfather’s Iowa State Fair.  Iowa, once a reliably blue state, hosts an internationally renowned fair every summer that explodes in popularity during presidential cycles. This year was different. Republicans ran the show, building off their almost complete political domination of the state.  “Iowa has been trending red,” the state’s lieutenant governor, Adam Gregg, told me, laying out the stakes. “The future of our state and the future of our country is impacted by what Iowa does.” And the state fair is where it’s at. Gregg, who’s been coming here for “decades,” called the fair “ground zero” for presidential campaigns.

It sounds like Never Back Down, the PAC supporting Florida governor Ron DeSantis, is having a little too much fun at the Iowa State Fair. Politico reported Sunday that a group of Never Back Down officials got into a shouting match at a local bar with a Trump supporter who was sporting a "Back to Back Iowa Champ" hat. According to two witnesses, the fight was started by communications director Erin Perrine, who told the supporter: "You know you lost." "The resulting shouting match lasted several minutes," the outlet reported. "Multiple 'F'-bombs were dropped. At one point, a Trump supporter made a lewd comment to Perrine, a fourth person familiar with the events told Politico. No physical fight ever occurred.

The list of attendees for the first GOP presidential primary debate keeps getting longer. Former vice president Mike Pence has apparently just succeeded in reaching the 40,000 unique donor milestone, granting him a spot in Milwaukee on August 23 alongside Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and a governor from one of the Dakotas (not the one you like looking at). Trump may or may not attend, but whatever he chooses, Cockburn expects him to be at the center of the debate. The RNC also gave candidates some prompts about what to expect: some pre-taped questions from student members of the Young America's Foundation, one minute for answers, thirty seconds for follow-ups, forty-five seconds for closing statements, no opening statements.

I wonder if Ron DeSantis’s favorite mot these days is from Mark Twain: “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” Maybe so. But let’s face it, the reports are many and deafening.  They are also damaging. Consider, to take one recent example, the report, conveyed by Semafor, on the DeSantis Meme Team that works under the rubric of “War Room Creative Ideas” on the encrypted message app Signal.   Among the “creative ideas” were videos, insinuated anonymously onto Twitter (as it then was), that smeared Donald Trump by including a fascist symbol — get it? Another attacked Trump for pro-LGBT rights comments. Both were instantly attacked by the Trump base.

North Dakota governor Doug Burgum is used to being counted out — and he brought that underdog energy to a meet and greet to Washington, DC, just in time to celebrate his surprising qualification for the Presidential Republican primary debate stage. At the swanky Capitol Hill Club he made his case. He was surrounded by his state’s congressional delegation along with Senator Susan Collins, former senator Norm Coleman and a room of curious onlookers, many of whom told Cockburn they first learned of his campaign when he launched a clever scheme to mail out $20 gift cards in exchange for a $1 donation—a way to reach the 40,000 donor threshold to make the stage.

Donald Trump is apparently so eager for an invite on to The Joe Rogan Experience that his ally Roger Stone has challenged Rogan to a cage match to force the issue. Earlier this month, Trump and Rogan were seen shaking hands at the UFC 290 fight in Las Vegas. Since then, the former president, who listens to Rogan's podcast according to advisors, has been eyeing up an invitation to go on the show. However, Rogan has previously claimed that he's told Trump's team "no every time." Speaking about Trump a few weeks ago, Rogan said on Lex Fridman’s podcast: "I'm not a Trump supporter in any way, shape or form. I've had the opportunity to have him on my show more than once.  “I've said no every time. I don't want to help him. I'm not interested in helping him.

Cockburn has witnessed firsthand how many Americans are opposed to corporations forcing them to fund radical, progressive ideologies. His fellow barflies are still shunning Bud Light months after the Dylan Mulvaney sponsorship SNAFU that saw the company’s stock values plummet. Yet, as tired as many Americans may be of Woke, Inc., Cockburn senses voters are growing just as sick of Governor Ron DeSantis talking about it. DeSantis took to Twitter this morning to announce, “We’ve kneecapped ESG in Florida. So I’m calling for an investigation into AB InBev’s actions regarding their Bud Light marketing campaign and falling stock prices. All options are on the table and woke corporations that put ideology ahead of returns should be on notice.

This week a new Morning Consult poll — a qualifier for the first Republican primary debate — shed new light on the effectiveness of the various campaign strategies employed by the 2024 primary candidates. Former president Donald Trump, unsurprisingly, leads the field significantly; 55 percent of expected GOP voters say they would vote for Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today. Florida governor Ron DeSantis is in second place, trailing Trump by a whopping thirty-five points. How did Trump manage so quickly to neuter his strongest challenger, who was adored by conservatives for his common-sense Covid policies and “war on woke” in Florida?