Nearly one in three British women are now predicted to have no children, compared to around one in twenty in 1970. The assumption is that this is because young women have simply lost interest in becoming parents. But on the contrary, nine out of ten say they hope to become mothers one day, and the desire for a family of two, a home and a family to call their own, remains stubbornly persistent.
Striking new analysis by the Centre for Social Justice published this week found that over three million women aged 16 to 45 may miss out on having the family they hoped for – 600,000 more than if fertility patterns matched their grandparents’ generation.
Make no mistake, this is one of the forgotten tragedies of our time. Motherhood remains one of the most meaningful experiences in many women’s lives. And families provide the backbone of a stable society, shaping the next generation and, more prosaically, ensuring our economy does not collapse.
Given the individual desire and the wider importance of family formation, one would think it a fundamental priority of any government to ensure the right conditions are in place for people to have children. Yet while countries such as France, Australia, Singapore and Poland have acted, Britain has buried its head in the sand.
This is gravely concerning. The UK’s economic model relies on future workers to fund an ageing society, yet the Office for Budget Responsibility warns that, on current trends, public debt could rise to over 270 per cent of GDP by the early 2070s, driven largely by demographic pressures. The current model simply will not hold. Immigration has masked the impact, but it is not a long-term solution. Fertility rates among migrant populations fall over time, and migrants, like everyone else, grow old too.
But this is about more than economics. It is about the lives people expected to lead. Of course, many women choose not to have children and deserve respect for that. But for others, not having the children they hoped for brings a deep sense of loss – a ‘silent grief’, as shadow minister Claire Coutinho has put it – often accompanied by loneliness later in life.
In the CSJ report women cite a range of reasons for not having children: not finding the right partner (34 per cent), wanting to advance their career first (38 per cent), and the cost of childcare (44 per cent). But most strikingly, over half (54 per cent) said it is because motherhood is seen as unappealing.
The culture surrounding marriage, family and motherhood portrays them as a hindrance
Part of the reason is the culture surrounding marriage, family and motherhood, which often downplays their value or portrays them as a hindrance. Over time, this has had profound consequences. Today, around half of children are not living with both parents by age 16, compared to around 20 per cent in the 1980s.
I often wonder how things might look if equality had come to mean valuing family life alongside career success. Instead, many women feel they must justify prioritising motherhood, as though it were a lesser choice.
Widespread misunderstanding about fertility compounds the problem. Many young women believe it is possible to have a baby at almost any age before menopause. But this is not the case. IVF and egg freezing can help, but they are expensive, emotionally demanding, and far from guaranteed. Hollywood must accept some share of the blame for setting such unrealistic expectations.
So what can be done? First, the conversation needs to be reopened. At a parliamentary event on the subject of family just a few years ago, the reaction was so extreme that one of our panel members had to pull out. We can see the green shoots of a mainstream debate today, but these must be encouraged.
Second, policymakers should look across the world for inspiration. The data shows, counter-intuitively, that free childcare does not appear to significantly increase birth rates. By contrast, strong family benefits and tax relief, recognising families rather than individuals in the system, have shown more promising results.
Above all, this requires a culture change. Women and men should feel free to question what progress and equality really mean and challenge the assumption that this relates to career success alone. A society that values choice should also value family life. Until that happens, the chasm between the families people hope for and the lives they end up living will continue to grow, with troubling consequences for all of us.
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