The US and Iran have failed to reach an agreement after 21 hours of peace talks in Pakistan. I can’t say I’m surprised. After all, we didn’t have to wait for the negotiations to finish to make an informed guess of the outcome.
America and Iran agreed a ceasefire conditional on the Islamic Republic’s complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz. It has so far refused to honor that condition. Earlier this week, President Trump responded with fulminations: Iran “better stop now” if it’s charging tankers to pass through. But, in practice, all he has done is apply more pressure on NATO allies and send Vice President J.D. Vance to head the delegation in Islamabad.
The ceasefire agreement did not include Lebanon – where Israel is battling to destroy, or at least neuter, Hezbollah. However, Iran is now insisting on a ceasefire in Lebanon as a condition of the truce. Trump’s response has been to insist that Israel negotiate with Lebanon in Washington “as soon as possible” – even though the Lebanese government (if there is such a body) has no control of Hezbollah. As Brendan O’Neill pointed out, this is the terror group raining missiles and rockets on Northern Israel, forcing thousands of Israelis to flee, creating “Jew-free swathes of territory – just as the anti-Semites of Hezbollah like it” and, as friends with relatives there tell me, forcing Israelis into bomb shelters every day.
Little wonder then that negotiations stuttered to a halt overnight. Summarizing the talks, Vance told reporters: “We’ve had a number of substantive discussions with the Iranians, that’s the good news. The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America.” Once again, no surprise. The Pakistani government – which Vance thanked for its role – is hardly an unbiased mediator. Its foreign minister declared in a since-deleted post: “Israel is a curse for humanity. I hope and pray people who created this cancerous state on Palestinian land to get rid of European jews [sic] burn in hell.” As the talks drag on, China is also preparing to ship new air defense systems to Iran during the ceasefire, destroying the US’s control of Iranian skies – if such control existed.
To assume Iran would ever agree to Washington’s terms strains even Gottfried Leibniz’s optimism
Vance has insisted that Washington’s terms are their “best and final offer.” But to assume that Iran will ever agree to these terms would strain even Gottfried Leibniz’s optimism. It is to assume that Iran will agree to restore international waterway status to the Strait of Hormuz, transfer its nuclear stockpile to a safe depository and help bring peace to northern Israel. It is to assume that Iran – flush with daily millions in tanker toll fees – will not use those funds to rebuild its military. It is to assume that the Shia-majority regime – which dubs its Sunni neighbors “dogs” – will not use control of the strait to disadvantage those “dogs” and threaten them with dire consequences unless they close US military installations. It is to assume that the Europeans will find the will and the way to help America avoid the new world described above.
I would rather assume I am wrong.
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