On Friday night, Donald Trump announced that America was “very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East.” He even pinned the announcement to the top of his Truth Social account to make sure everyone realized he meant it. That did little to settle the markets over the weekend, however, so this morning he took to Truth Social again to go further in ALL CAPS:
The lingering fear is that the truth may be more TCCO (Trump Can’t Chicken Out)
I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.
That did the trick: the price of oil fell dramatically, and markets calmed as traders again took up the so-called TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade, betting that a ceasefire could soon be announced, and a global recession and/or World War Three may be averted.
Yet the lingering fear is that the truth may be more TCCO (Trump Can’t Chicken Out). Iranian media promptly reported that the IRGC has had no talks with America, and that Trump has merely pulled back from hitting Iranian energy infrastructure because Iran had promised to cripple global energy supply in reply.
Of course, Iranian state media isn’t exactly fair and balanced. Nonetheless, the question remains: who does Trump think the US is talking to, and can Iran’s diplomatic actors, speaking with the usual Gulf Cooperation Council intermediaries, actually bring about a ceasefire even if they want to?
We’ve already seen that Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, who keeps promising that Iran does not wish war with its Muslim neighbours. He seems to be on a different page to the IRGC, which has continued to target not just Israel and US military bases but also energy infrastructure across the Gulf states.
Sources inside the Gulf suggest that the usual diplomatic channels have gone dark since February 28, the start of Operation Epic Fury, and the killing of various Iranian leadership figures. The latest developments suggest that Qatari and Omani intermediaries may have succeeded in establishing a new dialogue with elements of the remaining Iranian leadership. But Iran’s “mosaic defence” strategy is designed to decentralize its command structure, and so a politically ordered ceasefire may land on deaf ears.
In other words, America and Israel may have cut off the head of the snake but Trump may soon find that he is dealing with a multi-headed creature with whom it is even harder to wrestle.
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