Labour fends off Polanski

Good morning. Zack Polanski faces questions about his Green party leadership and Zionist stance following Labour’s victory in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. A report links surging ADHD and autism claims to the welfare system, and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s allies claim he has begun a ‘fightback’. Russia continues to face scrutiny over a potential plague outbreak, Tesco is feeling buoyant about Christmas and a 194-year-old tortoise may hold the key to eternal youth. Welcome to Spectator Daily: here’s everything you need to know today.

LABOUR FENDS OFF POLANSKI

It’s not easy being… Zack Polanski. The Green party leader has failed to be elected as an MP following his defeat to Labour in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Sir Keir Starmer’s successor will instead be Sagal Abdi-Wali – once a child refugee from Somalia – who led Camden council. As James Heale writes on Coffee House, the result will ‘further bolster Andy Burnham’s credentials… and exacerbate the existing wounds within the Green party about the future of Polanski’s leadership’.

In total, Labour won 12,292 votes compared to Polanski’s 8,928. In a distant third place, the Conservatives managed 1,922 votes while Reform UK were not far behind on 1,612. Turnout was 39 per cent – down from 54.1 per cent in 2024. Although Polanski secured a 22-point swing from the 2024 election, Abdi-Wali secured 45 per cent of the vote compared to his 33 per cent. However, pollster Luke Tryl has pointed out that this is down on the local elections in May, when the Greens won 35 per cent to Labour’s 39 per cent.

Sagal Abdi-Wali becomes the seat’s first female MP.

Abdi-Wali declared her victory to be ‘deeply personal’, adding that it ‘says something about who gets to belong’. She said she wants her success to ‘demonstrate that you do not have to surrender your hope to succeed’ and that ‘diversity is our strength’. Abdi-Wali also paid tribute to ‘the brilliant MPs’ in the seat who went before her – the ‘late, great Frank Dobson’ and ‘Keir Starmer who built on [Dobson’s] legacy’. But she then put a demand to Starmer’s successor in No. 10: that she wants ‘to see Thames Water brought into public ownership’.

The reaction from the Greens, unsurprisingly, was a little more muted. A spokesperson hailed ‘an incredible result’ and said that while the party is ‘disappointed to miss out tonight’, any suggestion of ‘a return to cosy two-party system is just wishful thinking on the part of the establishment’. Polanski told Sky News he had ‘really enjoyed the last few weeks’ and that campaigning in the seat had ‘been an opportunity to present Green party values’.

But all that was overshadowed by Polanski’s response when asked about the controversial motion passed at the Green party conference last week declaring ‘Zionism is racism’. The Green party leader said he had grown up ‘in a Zionist household’ but had ‘educated’ himself, adding: ‘What we’re seeing is an ongoing genocide and the displacement of the Palestinian people… that’s clearly racism.’ Asked whether Jewish people deserve a state, he replied: ‘It’s not our role to decide.’

Feeling a bit of a muppet, Zack?

Polanski pinned the blame for his defeat on the Prime Minister, saying that ‘many people on the doorsteps told me they want to give Andy Burnham a chance’. But while he insists he will stay on, senior party sources told the Telegraph that his loss makes him look ‘ridiculous’ and that this result should be a ‘wake up-call’ for the Greens. With Burnham buoyant, the question is whether Polanski has peaked. As Ross Clark writes on Coffee House: ‘In a few months, Polanski has gone from being just about the most successful party leader of the moment to being the one who is surely now in greatest trouble.’

Polanski has already had to deny losing control of his party following criticism from his predecessor, Caroline Lucas. The Green party’s first MP told BBC Newsnight that people should ‘see what happens in the coming days and weeks’. She also condemned his failure to participate in the anti-Zionism motion, which he missed due to campaigning, saying he ‘should have been there and he should have voted’. But Polanski pushed back, pointing to increased membership figures and promising that his party will continue to ‘build and grow’.

Yesterday, Burnham also condemned the Green party’s ‘terrible judgment’ for passing the motion. He said the decision was ‘completely wrong’ and called on Polanski to reverse it since it was ‘in effect ruling out a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine’. The Prime Minister declined to comment on whether the motion meant he would not enter into an agreement with the Greens in a future hung parliament. The Campaign Against Anti-Semitism has written to the equalities watchdog about the motion. For more, you can read Tali Fraser’s cover piece about the growth of anti-Semitic politics in this week’s issue.

‘Rough times all round for greens.’

THE ADHD ‘TIPPING POINT’

The by-election result was too late for the front pages. But many of them splash instead on a government-commissioned report that warns the soaring demand for ADHD and autism diagnoses has been driven by the welfare system. The 607-page review, spearheaded by clinical psychologist Professor Peter Fonagy, warns that Britain is at a ‘tipping point’ with overdiagnosis and over-medicalisation ‘very, very likely’.

The report warns that unnecessary diagnoses could harm younger generations by ‘closing doors’, lowering ambitions and defining children by their inabilities. It pointed out that linking assessment to financial entitlements such as the Personal Independence Payment encourages people to present themselves in the worst possible light. It also points to a substantial rise in mental distress, saying that around four million young people – about a fifth of the total – are now living with high levels of psychological strain.

The report contains some truly staggering figures. In July, 268,965 people claimed disability benefits with autism as their main disabling condition – up from 79,395 in January 2019. Meanwhile, the number whose main condition was ADHD or attention deficit disorder rose from 23,741 to 106,087. In case you missed it, it’s worth revisiting Michael Simmons’ reporting on the topic, including this piece from July.

In other news, the Telegraph reports that ‘friends’ of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor believe his legal victory yesterday is the beginning of his ‘long overdue fightback’. A senior judge ruled that search warrants which Thames Valley Police used to search the former prince’s homes before his arrest in February were unlawful. The former Duke of York is now taking further legal action to recover items which officers seized from Royal Lodge, his former Windsor residence, and Marsh Farm on the Sandringham estate. A nameless friend told the paper they are ‘delighted that he has finally decided to fight his corner’ after having been ‘under fire for 15 long years’. And they say we commoners have it tough!

Any excuse to use this photo again…

If that isn’t enough royal self-pity for you, Prince Harry has told an online mental health programme that he ‘slipped into depression for about two weeks’ when he took a break from official duties. The Duke of Sussex said he had found being a royal a ‘stressful environment’ when he and Meghan briefly moved to Canada in 2019, months before permanently quitting their roles. However, taking time out gave him an ‘adrenaline crash’ that left him feeling ‘useless’. The comments form part of a 20-episode MasterClass series called Redefining Grief: Building Resilience starring Harry. Slipping into depression, indeed.

Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch’s name featured on a list of more than 100 prominent individuals found in the home of the man accused of murdering Ann Widdecombe, the Telegraph reports. Others who featured on the alleged list included Robert Jenrick, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson of Reform UK, Badenoch’s fellow Tory Tom Tugendhat and former Labour MP Rosie Duffield. Joshua Kerry was charged with murdering Widdecombe in July and has also been charged with preparing acts of terrorism, including against Nigel Farage. He faces a court hearing today ahead of a trial provisionally dated for next June.

Coming up today

BURNHAM’S BREXIT PUSH

Andy Burnham has told European leaders that he wants ‘deeper co-operation’ between Britain and the European Union ahead of a summit at the end of next month. The Prime Minister made the comments during a visit to Germany yesterday – his first trip to an EU country since entering No. 10. It came as he suggested Germany could join a British-led project to build a £50 billion long-range stealth jet by 2035. British officials have reportedly expressed interest in Germany joining the Global Compact Air Programme, a joint British-Italian-Japanese project, after it pulled out of a similar initiative with France.

Over in the US, the country’s Defence Secretary has announced the firing squad execution of an ex-army major who killed 13 people in Texas will be livestreamed. Nidal Malik Hasan, who shot 13 unarmed soldiers dead at Fort Hood in 2009, is scheduled to be executed on 3 December. Last night, Pete Hegseth announced that the execution would be ‘public’ as ‘people need to understand that there [are] serious consequences for these types of things’.

Troops salute at an anniversary memorial service for the Fort Hood victims in 2010.

Something to be sniffed at? Russia has denied social media reports of a second plague case. Darya Shipilova, a 28-year-old lab technician in Siberia, died last week after supposedly smashing a test tube containing pneumonic plague bacteria. Authorities said she had died from ‘pneumonia of unknown etiology’. However, Moscow has now come under pressure to rule out that she had the plague after a second person reportedly came into contact with a lab technician and fell ill.

BAILEY’S WAY OR THE HIGHWAY

The Bank of England governor has urged the Chancellor John Healey to produce a Budget that calms the financial markets after the UK’s medium-term borrowing costs reached a 19-year high. Speaking in Istanbul, Andrew Bailey made clear that he did not wish to meddle in government policy. However, after ten-year government bond yields spiked to 5.515 per cent yesterday, he said: ‘Whatever the stance of fiscal policy, it must be credible and be seen as such by financial markets.’ Something, something mini-Budget.

Tesco-ho-ho-ho. Good festive expectations from the UK’s largest supermarket chain, which has increased its full-year profit outlook after predicting ‘resilient’ shoppers would spend more this Christmas. Tesco now expects to deliver an adjusted operating profit of between £3.15 billion and £3.3 billion for the coming year; shares were up 5.2 per cent by last night. Chief executive Ken Murphy said customers ‘want to enjoy Christmas, given everything that is going on in the world’. However, he predicted low-alcohol sales could rise due to various health fads. Bah, humbug!

Meanwhile, Deliveroo has announced a crackdown on riders it suspects could be on the roads illegally by using e-bikes able to reach speeds of more than 30mph. Through a combination of new speed and GPS technology, the delivery platform plans to monitor its network of more than 100,000 riders to see how quickly they are bringing their assorted takeaways and groceries. If their delivery time does not match with the bike registered to the account, the rider will receive a telling off and potential ban.

Then we take Berlin… – Ed West

There is no ‘Nordic Model’ – Compact

Tolkien for the unconverted – Engelsberg Ideas

How this El Nino will change the world – New Scientist

Badenoch is playing into Reform’s hands – James Frayne

Could Jonathan the tortoise help human beings live longer? Since the chap is a sprightly 194 years old, it’s not too absurd an idea. He has spent most of his life in St Helena in the South Atlantic, and scientists have now identified 287 features of his DNA that seem to have guarded him against time’s passing. Dr Stephen Clark, the author of the study, said their goal is to translate Jonathan’s ‘evolutionary insights’ into ‘practical affordable treatments’ against disease and even aging itself.

‘Personally, I’d just suggest doing a bit of exercise.’

Speaking of old animals, archaeologists have uncovered the remains of one of Britain’s first pet dogs. Archaeologists say the Pomeranian-sized skeleton, found near Skegness, seems to have been a miniature breed hailing from the end of the Iron Age and the landing of the Romans. The Telegraph speculates that those Italian invaders may have brought the trend of transporting tiny lap dogs.

Good news! Death rates from prostate cancer have fallen by 24 per cent in seven years. The National Prostate Cancer Audit found that 60,827 men were diagnosed with the disease in England last year – up 7 per cent from 57,029 in 2024. However, the proportion who died within three years of being diagnosed had fallen from 56 per cent in 2015 to 47 per cent by 2022. There’s still a long way to go, of course, but we’ll take the optimism where we can.

Any thoughts on this email? Please get in touch – watkinson@spectator.co.uk

For more, subscribe to our Lunchtime Espresso briefing at 1 p.m. and Evening Blend at 6 p.m.