Russia-Ukraine ‘energy ceasefire’ in doubt

Good morning. Ukraine has said Russia struck one of its power plants, despite Donald Trump claiming an energy ceasefire had been agreed between the two countries. Nigel Farage will pledge to shut down the asylum system today, while Andy Burnham has said Russia interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Saudi Arabia’s airports continue to be struck by Houthi rebels, with oil executives cancelling their travels. Manchester City wake up this morning still the villains, but also the victors, after a 3-0 win at Liverpool yesterday, and celebrations are taking place this week for the centenary of Winnie the Pooh. Welcome to Spectator Daily: here’s everything you need to know today.

ENERGY CEASEFIRE IN DOUBT

Confusion reigns in Ukraine this morning, as everyone asks: is there an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia or not? Donald Trump claimed there was on Truth Social yesterday afternoon, posting that: ‘Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!’

Problem one: Voldoymyr Zelensky said Ukraine hadn’t heard about the ceasefire: it was ‘news for me’, he said. Problem two: Zelensky also said Russia attacked a Ukrainian power plant hours later.

Round two?

Russian glide bombs and drones hit a CHP-5 facility in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city, according to Zelensky. The Ukrainian president was furious, pointing out ‘all of this happened AFTER the President of the United States made his statement about an energy ceasefire’. The FT reported yesterday that the US was threatening to cut weapons supplies to Ukraine if it didn’t stop striking Russian energy facilities. No. 10, for what it’s worth, said it ‘strongly supports President Trump’s call today for a sustained energy ceasefire to start now.’

It all comes after Friday’s deal between Trump and Vladimir Putin, whereby the US will buy 300,000 tons of fuel from Moscow, with the promise of another 1.5 million tons by the end of the year. Trump seems to be labouring under the assumption that Russian imports will cut the oil price for US consumers ahead of the midterms. Hence he said of Zelensky: ‘He better damn well stop… I suggest they get a new leader who can ‌make a deal.’

But, as pointed out in today’s Telegraph by Con Coughlin, the Iran war is the principal suspect of rising oil prices. Coughlin says ‘it is ludicrous for the US leader to blame Zelensky for the diesel crisis, as the primary cause of the rising costs is Trump’s war against Iran, which has nothing to do with Ukraine’.

Andy Burnham is expected to meet Zelensky in the coming days, having given him a supportive phone call on Saturday night. On the airwaves yesterday morning, Wes Streeting said: ‘We are in no doubt that the aggressor here was Vladimir Putin. He is the person who chose to start this war. He is the person who could end this war tomorrow, and he chooses not to. So, we stand with Ukraine.’

BURNHAM BESTRIDES THE GLOBE

Andy Burnham has become the first British Prime Minister to assert that Russia interfered in the Brexit referendum. Burnham made the claim on the Rest Is Politics podcast hosted by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, stating he had personally asked whether or not this was true and that he was told ‘the clear answer’, which was ‘yes’. In the episode, released today, Burnham said German politics was also being interfered with. The Russian foreign minister accused the PM of ‘Russophobia’ and said the country does not meddle in foreign elections. Burnham’s claim comes as his government sets up a new ‘National Centre for Information Defence’ to combat ‘hostile state information’ (DCMS first had a counter-disinformation unit in 2019). Burnham said Russia is currently spending £1.3 billion on misinformation every year. He is also expected to tell the Commons it would be a ‘dereliction of duty’ to turn down a closer relationship with the EU in a statement today. 

Burnham also used the podcast to announce that he will release details of his meetings with figures at Manchester City football club when he was Greater Manchester mayor. He previously told the BBC he would be ‘really concerned’ if the owners decided to sell up after the club was given a guilty verdict regarding breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules. Manchester City continues to maintain there was no wrongdoing and have launched an appeal of the guilty verdict.

Everton fans would surely want to throw the book at City, given their own recent points deductions

Elsewhere, Nigel Farage and Zia Yusuf will hold a press conference today where they will announce harder positions on border policy. This will include promises for a five-year pause on the asylum system and a target of deporting 90,000 applicants immediately. Any refugees who have been granted asylum in the past five years would also have their cases reviewed (Ukranians who arrived in the UK since 2022 will be allowed to stay). Trump paused all asylum claims in December of last year (though there have been court challenges and exemptions such as white South Africans).

The Times also reports that almost two million people are receiving sickness benefits without being reassessed, meaning billions of pounds are being given to people who may not be eligible. This backlog has come about because reassessment rates fell dramatically after lockdown; in Q1 2019 189,000 sickness reassessments took place, in Q1 of 2026 only 39,000 were. In countries such as the United States, Canada and Germany the number of people claiming sickness benefits has fallen but in Britain it has risen by 52 per cent. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has a helpful video explaining how Britain’s main disability benefits work.

Meanwhile, Russell Brand will appear in Southwark Crown Court today to face a series of charges: three counts of rape, three counts of sexual assault and one count of indecent assault. Brand has pleaded not guilty to all of these charges and has denied all the allegations made against him.

ARABIAN FIGHTS

Don’t fly into Saudi Arabia if you can help it at the moment. The Houthis struck an international airport in Riyadh two days in a row over the weekend, with yesterday’s strike on King Khalid International Airport causing a fire in one of the passenger halls. A strike on the same airport on Saturday killed 13 and injured 308 others. The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attacks, and also attacked oil facilities and Dammam airport in eastern Saudi Arabia. The strikes are revenge for the Saudi recapture of the Bab al-Mandeb strait last week.

Smoke rises from Saturday’s airstrike

The chaos has prompted senior global oil executives to cancel plans to attend an energy conference in Riyadh this week. CEOs of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell and BP were all due to attend the World Petroleum Council’s energy congress, which started yesterday in the Saudi capital – the FT reported that they withdrew.

Meanwhile, the Israeli elections are just weeks away, and former prime minister Naftali Bennett has annoyed opposition politicians by suggesting Benjamin Netanyahu could be part of a future government. At an event organised by the religious newspaper HaDor, Bennett said he would have ‘no problem’ bringing Likud into the fold if Bibi fully accepted their policies, ‘including a state commission of inquiry [into 7 October]’. He later claimed that he was joking. Gadi Eisenkot, who is polling level with Netanyahu, said ‘everyone who was in office [on 7 October] is unfit to serve in command and leadership roles’.

And will unrest continue in India? That’s the question after leaders of the Cockroach Janta party said they would ramp up protests against Narendra Modi’s government. The movement’s founder, Abhijeet Dipke, and two close associates were freed by a court order yesterday. Dipke had been detained in an aeroplane in the capital during Saturday’s demonstrations. The movement wants anti-corruption reforms to India’s education system. Its protests have been the country’s largest for years, and resulted in the resignation of its education minister.

PAPAL INFALLABILITY

News from Rome: Pope Leo said doctors had found an ‘early, well-localised nodule’ on his lung. More than 95 per cent of nodules are non-cancerous, and are caused by infections, scar tissue or inflammation. The Pope said he will have surgery ‘in the coming days’ during his Sunday prayers in St Peter’s Square in Rome. He concluded the session by thanking everyone for their ‘spiritual closeness’. Vatican News said the operation will take place at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital.

The Pope greets the faithful yesterday

Further north, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said yesterday that the ‘glorification of violence’ online was a contributing factor in three attacks at Polish schools last week. Police have arrested 117 people across the country after searching tens of thousands of schools. A woman was arrested on Saturday after injuring three while attacking a girl at an educational institute in Warsaw. Tusk said that ‘we are not dealing with any group organised on a big scale’, adding that the chaos was decentralised.

Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers will meet today ahead of this week’s IMF and World Bank meetings. The IMF isn’t sounding the most positive of notes, with managing director Kristalina Georgieva warning that ‘winter is coming’. The IMF chief has urged global leaders to control their public spending and sort out rising borrowing costs. The centrepiece of the week will be the IMF’s release of its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, its twice-yearly forecasts for the global economy.

And we’ll get two important pieces of economic information this week: a monthly British GDP estimate for August is out at 7 a.m. on Thursday, with approximately zero economic growth expected. It’s not what John Healey will want in the last update before he delivers his Budget – the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned he faces a £35 billion shortfall in a report today. US inflation figures are out on Thursday too, they’re expected to sit at around 3.7 per cent due to sharp energy costs: again, not what Trump will want before the midterms.

‘To prove we’re innocent, let’s pull billions out of the UK economy.’

Trump has just given Burnham a chance to be leader of the free world – Telegraph

Video cameras are everywhere – and now they’re being hacked for war – Wall Street Journal

Leonardo da Vinci was Jewish – Tablet

Is OpenAI making maths obsolete? – Zvi Mowshowitz

Podcasts are changing our idea of what ‘funny’ is – New Yorker

It wasn’t quite the satisfying result that most of us football fans wanted, but Man City’s statement 3-0 win at Anfield against Liverpool yesterday was something to behold. After a cagey first half, Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch had the bright idea of getting himself sent off in the 62nd minute, which greatly helped City on their way. Excellent goals from Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku and Rayan Cherki meant City have now won six out of their first six games.

Don’t look so smug!

But does any of it matter? With relegation a possibility if City’s appeal is unsuccessful, the whole Premier League seems somehow… not real, at the moment. Nevertheless, there was footballing fun to be had over the weekend (Jordan Henderson’s man-of-the-match display for Chelsea was something of a surprise). The round of fixtures finishes tonight, with Frank Lampard’s Coventry hosting Newcastle United.

Good news for Winnie the Pooh fans! This week, it’s the 100th anniversary celebrations of A. A. Milne’s fictional teddy bear. His name first appeared in a children’s story in London’s Evening News on Christmas Eve 1925. The Royal Mail have released a new set of stamps to mark the centenary, and there will be a week of programming across BBC Radio Four, where the Queen is expected to kick off proceedings by praising the kindness of the stories and their ‘simplicity in a very complicated world’.

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