PM pledges new EU deals

Good morning. Andy Burnham has promised he will get growth-boosting deals out of next month’s summit with the EU, and had to reiterate that he respects the result of the 2016 referendum. The Iranian ambassador has been summoned after Burnham ‘almost certainly’ blamed regime networks for the incident at RAF Fairford. Clinicians are calling for less screen time in the classroom for kids, while the second round of prisoner releases takes place today. France has another ‘nationwide day of action’ coming up. Elon Musk became the Republicans’ biggest donor ahead of the midterms, and the Pope is heading to hospital for surgery on his lung. Welcome to Spectator Daily: here’s everything you need to know today.

ALL OVER AGAIN?

While you were sleeping, the International Monetary Fund released its latest report, predicting Britain’s economy will grow faster than expected this year (by 1.3 per cent) before slowing in 2027 as higher energy prices and interest rates bite. The IMF also warned governments to restrict borrowing and spending to relieve the cost of living. The report, along with soaring government borrowing costs, places extra pressure on Chancellor John Healey ahead of his first Budget on 28 October.

‘Not good enough’ is the verdict from Andy Burnham on Britain’s relationship with Europe. He told MPs yesterday that he would push for more deals at next month’s summit with the EU. He promised that ‘deeper cooperation’ on issues like food and drink, youth mobility and energy would be a boost for growth in the UK. He put a figure on it: the equivalent of £10 billion a year to the economy by 2040.

However, he maintained that Labour would keep to the red lines of its 2024 manifesto: namely no return to the single market or customs union and no freedom of movement. ‘At every stage’, he said, ‘the British public will be the boss, and I am clear that public opinion currently supports a pragmatic approach like the one I am suggesting.’ Worth a reminder, though, that he hasn’t ruled out putting rejoin in the next manifesto.

Have we tried: resetting ten years?

He warned that ‘at present entire truckloads of plants or fresh produce can be destroyed because of a single missing stamp or a minor paperwork delay.’ Yet it wasn’t all promises of milk and honey: he also warned that the EU’s anti-China Made in Europe plans posed a ‘risk to UK manufacturing’ and that he was in talks for ‘an arrangement’ that works for Britain. Kemi Badenoch pointed out that Burnham had said earlier this year that ‘the last thing we should do right now is re-run those [Brexit] arguments’.

Burnham also had to retreat from his claims on The Rest is Politics that Russia had interfered in the referendum. In as large an apology as you’re going to get from him, he said he had ‘always respected’ the outcome of the Brexit vote. Shadow housing secretary Katie Lam said it was ‘deeply irresponsible for the Prime Minister to peddle unproven allegations about Russian interference, just because he doesn’t like the outcome of a democratic vote.’

A former Spectator editor (and, less importantly, prime minister) weighed in too: ‘As soon as I became foreign secretary, I asked the security services the same question and they replied that there was no evidence of any successful interference in the 2016 referendum, by Russia or any other power. Either the security services have changed their view – which would be very odd – or Burnham is lying about what he has been told’.

Meanwhile, the government also confirmed last night that it has summoned the Iranian ambassador to tell him that ‘Britain will not tolerate threats on our soil’ following the recent incident at RAF Fairford. Burnham said the incident was ‘almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard’, while the Home Secretary said the suspected co-ordinator was a ‘known individual based in Iran’. Sanctions could be forthcoming, Burnham said.

PRISONERS AND THE UNEMPLOYED

A second tranche of prisoners will be released today as the government continues to struggle with overcrowding. Last Thursday it was reported that one of the prisoners released in the first tranche, Michael Bogle, who was filmed praising Andy Burnham as he left HMP Wandsworth, went on a shoplifting spree 24 hours later. Bogle has 16 previous convictions including theft and indecent exposure. Around 4,500 prisoners will be released early by the time the scheme ends in June next year. The Tories have pledged 50,000 new prison places, mostly to be built within one parliament (the government plans to build 14,000 new places by 2031).

This morning’s Times leads with a call to cut screen time in schools for pupils’ health. Ministers have been told that screen time in classrooms is causing a ‘crisis’ in speech and language development. Clinicians wrote to Lucy Powell and Yvette Cooper, the education and health secretaries, warning that the use of tablets, laptops, interactive whiteboards and headphones ‘exploded’ during the pandemic and should be rolled back.

Benefits bonanza: there are now 3,369 neighbourhoods in England and Wales where more than half of working-age adults are claiming out of work benefits, according to a new report by the Centre for Social Justice. The report also finds that a single claimant receiving a variety of separate benefits could make as much as £27,400 a year, equivalent to the take home pay of somebody earning £33,000 a year. The Times Welfare Inquiry has also released new data showing that 120,000 teenagers claiming various disability benefits are costing the taxpayer more than £1 billion a year.

Meanwhile, the government’s AI minister, Kanishka Narayan, has warned that Britain’s cyber defences are ‘likely’ to be breached at some point by artificial intelligence, referring to an incident where a rogue OpenAI agent hacked into a statistics portal hosted by the Australian government. Narayan also says that AI is part of the solution to the risks posed by it, referring to two pilot schemes which have been used to detect vulnerabilities in government systems and fix them. This issue is also a focus of the new Cyber Security and Resilience Bill, currently in the report stage in the House of Lords.

Speaking of security, Shabana Mahmood has ordered Sir Stephen Lovegrove to conduct an urgent review for politicians and the Royal Family. Mahmood also wants to offer police support to party leaders who are not in parliament and former MPs following the death of Anne Widdecombe. Joshua Kerry, who has been charged with her murder, has also been accused of researching prominent figures and attempting to break into Nigel Farage’s home in April 2025. According to polling conducted by More In Common in July, one in seven British people believe that political violence is acceptable in some circumstances.

And there will be an inquiry into the mauling to death of a man who reportedly jumped into a tiger’s enclosure at Yorkshire Wildlife Park. According to witnesses, the man jumped into the enclosure from a raised viewing platform after dancing and asking other visitors to take his picture. No details have been released about the man at the request of his family. The Zoo remained closed on Monday following his death. Officials there said on Sunday that there are no plans to euthanise Altai, the Siberian tiger involved in the incident.

STILL NO CEASEFIRE

Six: that’s how many energy facilities Russia struck in the hours after Donald Trump’s proposed energy ceasefire, according to Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine’s state news agency reported blackouts in the city of Izyum after a Russian strike on power grids, with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov saying that Ukraine does not deserve the ‘respite’ of a ceasefire. Zelensky said ‘we did not attack, while Russia attacked our gas stations, energy infrastructure and other facilities’.

Amid criticism of his oil deal with the Russians, Trump wrote on Truth Social that ‘the European Union paid Russia $250 billion for energy, and the fake news doesn’t want to get near that story. I made the right choice for the American people’. In Luxembourg yesterday, EU foreign ministers discussed using €210 billion in frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.

Meanwhile, France has the joy of another ‘nationwide day of action’ today, again about schools, although the protests seem to have subsided slightly (some 96.5 per cent of secondary schools were open yesterday). Nevertheless, pupils will march towards the Prime Minister’s office today ahead of debates around the upcoming budget.

Average French day that ends in ‘y’

There was a grimmer story from France yesterday when a pupil was arrested after a headteacher and teacher were shot at a school in the south of the country. A 14-year-old entered Lakanal middle school in Aubagne reportedly ‘with a shotgun inside a guitar case’. The teachers’ injuries are not life-threatening, according to Aubagne’s mayor. Local media said the shooting wasn’t to do with the ongoing protests.

France can’t really catch a break at the moment, and also had to endure a cyberattack on hundreds of its supermarkets. Fridges and freezes heated up following the attack, causing millions of euros in food spoilage. Hackers gained control of the tech that regulates fridge temperatures, and warmed some of them to 50C overnight. More than 100 of Coopérative U’s stores were affected, with other retailers like Carrefour also hit.

Further south, Spain’s King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia will visit the Spanish enclave of Ceuta today in North Africa. Ceuta was at the centre of a border controversy this summer after 80,000 migrants crossed over from Morocco without authorisation in July. Most went back within days, but up to 15,000 migrants remained.

And Pope Leo will be admitted to hospital in Rome today for surgery to remove a very early-stage lung growth, or ‘nodule’. As mentioned in yesterday’s Morning Press, the Pope, 71, announced his surgery during his weekly Sunday prayers in St Peter’s Square. All of his public events have been cancelled until 20 October.

RAIDS, FASHION, OIL

‘I will not be silenced’, Democratic congresswoman Ilhan Omar said after officials raided her home yesterday. The Department of Homeland Security carried out an operation at Omar’s home in Washington after the Department of Justice secured a search warrant, yet another example of Trump apparently using the law to go after his political opponents (others include former FBI director James Comey and New York attorney-general Letitia James). Trump has hinted about looking into Omar before, saying on Saturday: ‘These people from Somalia, what they’ve done to Minnesota should never be allowed’.

It’s a polarising move less than a month before the midterms, though perhaps Republicans will feel buoyed by Elon Musk’s continuing commitment to the party. Musk, the world’s richest man, yesterday became the largest donor in these elections, having put forward $275 million on crucial races across the country (it’s worth pointing out quite how well-allocated Musk’s funding usually is). As of the end of August, the Republicans had raised more than $1.1 billion ahead of the midterms, compared with the Democrats’ roughly $600 million. Having said that, Democrats are expected to win the House, although the Senate is less certain.

Friends again?

Bad news for fashionheads: sales in LVMH’s fashion and leather goods businesses fell by 5 per cent in the third quarter of this year. The principal driver was a slowdown in demand in China (please, for Europe’s sake, let’s hope that they haven’t all realised that this stuff is tatt). The luxury industry is in the midst of a four-year downturn as geopolitical instability affects the spending power of… well, heavy spenders. LVMH said the US market was still good though.

And an interesting set of Q3 results coming up today, which should give us a good snapshot of the health of Wall Street. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup all post trading revenues today: after a strong start to the year, it’s all expected to slow down a bit. Rising US Treasury yields could increase costs for the banks, despite making money lending more lucrative. We’ll also get a trading statement from BP, which pledged to ramp up oil and gas production this quarter. Investors may be interested to see whether it’s actually producing enough oil.

In Israel, I saw the dire state of Burnham’s foreign policy – Charles Moore

Europe must be ready for Putin’s winter push – William Hague

Thymos and American foreign policy – Francis Fukuyama

Reading is not dying – The New Republic

How the CIA smuggled liberal arts behind the Iron Curtain – The Reader

The world war two veteran Henry Rice has died at the age of 100. Rice, who was a signalman aboard HMS Eastway as part of the Normandy landings, survived a near-miss when his boat was fired at by a torpedo. He was a recipient of the Legion d’honneur from France, and said the Normandy landings should be more widely taught in schools because the ‘world is dangerous at the moment’. Rest in peace.

Bad news for Tom Cruise, as it looks like Digger is on course to be one of the worst flops in Hollywood history. The film is expected to lose around £185 million, analysts said, after sales dropped by 60 per cent in the movie’s second weekend in cinemas. The film cost Warner Bros around £211 million to make and market. Cruise’s copium is that he said he never thinks of movies’ opening weekends, and that it will ‘hopefully… translate, last and evolve’. Now, one in ten critics say it’s a masterpiece, and your author often finds himself agreeing with that kind of opinion, so he went along to see it on Sunday. I cannot stress this enough: do not go and see ‘Digger’.

‘I guess you guys aren’t ready for that yet, but your kids are gonna love it’

The nights are drawing in, which means European football under the floodlights. The Champions League league stage continues this evening, with Arsenal hosting Lille at 8 p.m. and Manchester United travelling to Atlético Madrid at the same time. Bayern Munich are away at the fabulously named ‘Viking’ in Norway.

Good news! A mission to track down Amelia Earhart’s missing plane gets going today. A team of US researchers will set off to a remote Pacific atoll where Earhart may have crash-landed in 1937. Satellite images from the past few years have shown a submerged object in the island’s sandy lagoon, but longtime sleuths say it’s probably a tree. These researchers insist the object has a metallic glint, though. Well, at least we’ll find out!

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