Tim Shipman

Voters head to the polls tomorrow in Makerfield for what could be the most consequential by-election in modern British history. If Andy Burnham wins by a significant margin, he will be heralded as the man Labour need to beat Reform nationally – and Starmer could be forced out within days. Yet the Prime Minister has come out fighting, warning Burnham that now is not the time for a challenge. What should we expect from what promises to be a febrile 72 hours in British politics? Will Starmer’s deposition be conducted with decorum, or will it descend into a bloodbath? Plus: with Keir Starmer travelling back from the G7 today, parliament saw Deputy Prime Minister’s Questions.

Donald Trump has announced a deal to end the war between Iran and the US, but in Westminster, the relief comes with serious questions. What does the deal actually contain? Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen quickly enough to bring down oil prices? And could any economic boost come too late to save Keir Starmer? Elsewhere, Keir Starmer has announced under-16s will be banned from social media by spring 2027. The policy may be popular with parents, but the details remain sketchy: how would it be enforced, would it require facial recognition or digital ID, and could teenagers simply get around it with VPNs? Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons discuss with Megan McElroy.

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Tim Shipman interviews Kemi Badenoch – including excerpts from the interview; Justin Marozzi argues that Trump’s strategy has only strengthened the Iranian regime; Christopher Howse pays tribute to ‘London’s rudest landlord'; and finally, Lara Prendergasts says that ‘matrescence’ is one big con. Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

A second defence minister has resigned in protest at Keir Starmer’s failure to fund Britain’s armed forces. Al Carns, a former Royal Marines colonel, has followed John Healey out of the Ministry of Defence, warning that the government is letting down those in uniform – and taking aim at both the defence investment plan and Labour’s handling of Northern Ireland veterans. Starmer has now appointed Dan Jarvis as Defence Secretary, but the brief increasingly looks like a poisoned chalice. With the Strategic Defence Review still unfunded, ministers sent out to defend a plan they have not seen, and the Prime Minister heading to the G7 and Nato summit under pressure, has Starmer’s strongest claim to leadership – defence and foreign affairs – collapsed?

John Healey has resigned as Defence Secretary. In a blistering letter to the Prime Minister, he said: ‘You have been unable, and the Treasury has been unwilling, to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.’ This comes after Keir Starmer failed even to secure the derisory sum of money he had demanded from the Treasury and the cabinet to modernise Britain’s forces following the recommendations of the Strategic Defence Review. The timing is equally devastating, as Starmer is heading to the G7 summit on Monday, where he will have to face Donald Trump. So what does this mean for Starmer’s premiership? Will more resignations follow – or will the missiles turn on the Treasury and Rachel Reeves’s reluctance to cough up?

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch was interviewed last night by The Spectator‘s Political Editor, Tim Shipman, in front of a live audience at Church House in Westminster. They discuss her shadow cabinet, her plan to revive the Tories, and how she thinks we can get the country growing. To watch and listen to the full conversation you’ll need to be a spectator subscriber. Get three months for three pounds and access the full stream at spectator.com/kemi – your subscription isn’t just to this conversation: it also includes full access to The Spectator website and app, weekly delivery of the magazine, all our livestreams, daily newsletters and podcasts. We hope you enjoy.

With the Makerfield by-election next week, Keir Starmer is in the business of legacy-building. In a speech this morning to coincide with London Tech Week, the Prime Minister announced a clampdown on social media usage among under-18s, and in particular on the circulation of naked images on smartphones and other devices among under-18s. The intention is to shift emphasis on to tech companies such as Apple and Google, requiring them to prevent children from seeing sexually explicit images on their phones and other devices. But, in true Starmer fashion, no new law was announced – only a deadline for big tech to change its ways, or else he will do … something. This is being read throughout Westminster as an attempt at legacy-building.