The Spectator

Friday

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Don’t throw the Iraqis to the wolves

In the whole debate over Iraq, this number struck me as important: 77% of Americans think that it is likely they’ll be all out civil war in Iraq if US forces leave. The strongest argument against leaving Iraq is that civil war would follow and it is reassuring to see that the US public accept the danger of it; there is nothing so irresponsible as the argument that the coalition can leave without there being any adverse consequences. Yet, I fear that we’re moving towards a, who cares let’s leave anyway moment—37% of Americans support immediate withdrawal, so already a significant number of people are happy to leave even if it means civil war.

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Translating the Merkel Memo

The indispensable OpenEurope has just done a guide to the leaked Merkel memo which appears in The Times today. So it’s official: this is a stitch up. The German presidency makes clear the substance of the old constitution will be enacted, but under different language. As I say in the cover piece, this is a nightmare for Gordon Brown. Whatever is agreed next week will be finalised in October, requiring his signature. If he intends to deny the British public the vote we were promised two years ago, he’d better come up with clear reasons why not.  The British public is firmly and defiantly against further integration of the EU project – just look at the EU’s own research. We’re easily the most Eurosceptic country in the Union.

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Johnson is the man to beat

Having finally caught up with the Labour deputy leadership Question Time, I think that the bookies have it right: Alan Johnson must be the favourite. He was head and shoulders above the other candidates last night with the possible exception of Hazel Blears, though her 1st year Hermione Granger-style enthusiasm could grate with voters in a general election campaign. Like Matt and Fraser, I’ve been quite impressed with Jon Cruddas but last night he came across as not quite ready for prime time. Hilary Benn would be a very safe choice but I can’t see him bringing any more votes into the Labour fold. Harriet Harman is a touch too prickly, note how riled she got when Dimleby asked her if she was Brown’s patsy.

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The delights of summer opera

Garsington Opera on a warm, damp Thursday evening. I've been chairing a pre-performance talk on La donna del lago between the conductor David Parry and Rossini scholar Philip Gossett, and now I've been given a seat in the orchestra pit to watch the show, as the auditorium is completely sold out. Somewhere behind me, out of view, David Mellor is having a good time - we know this as he says so, boomingly and often, during the interval. Jack Straw is less forthcoming. Down in the engine room you get a thrilling, if very skewed view of what’s going on. The stage is above you and extremely close, the singers looming overhead. I’ve moved from the brass section, fearing for my ears, and am now in with the string players.

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How will the violence in Gaza end?

It is hard to see anything good coming out of this brutal civil war in Gaza right now. But Martin Indyk, US ambassador to Israel under Bill Clinton, sketches out a positive—and possible—end-game in the Washington Post today :Whatever transpires, Gaza has become Hamas's problem. It's a safe bet that the real attitude of Abbas and Fatah is: Let Hamas try to rule Gaza, and good luck.This turn of events would free Abbas to focus on the much more manageable West Bank, where he can depend on the Israel Defense Forces to suppress challenges from Hamas, and on Jordan and the United States to help rebuild his security forces.

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Contemporary Labour, nice

For some time, New Labour has been looking for a fresh-sounding name for the post-Blair era. I have heard "New New Labour" (too daft), "Neo-Labour" (too close to "neo-con"), "New Labour-Plus" (David Miliband's formula), "Real Labour" (code for "Old Labour") and even just "Labour" (code for "can we stop all this branding stuff please?"). On last night's Question Time special, the Deputy Leadership contenders wrestled with the ideological trajectory of the party and Spectator favourite, Jon Cruddas, came up with the brilliant "Contemporary Labour". I like to think of Jon in the Fast Show's Jazz Club sketch, wearing a polo neck, Gitane in hand, introducing Gordon and his Neo-Endogenous Hepcats with the whispered word: "Contemporary".

Thursday

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I fear the violence will get worse, much worse

Mostly I am feeling too depressed about what's happening in Gaza to even find words to comment on it. Civil war has been looming for so long, and yet I kept hoping against hope that it wouldn't actually break; that somehow, something would change to divert things from their inexorable path.  For once, on this bleakest of days, I find it hard not to want to blame the Palestinians themselves. The roots of their desperation and grievance may lie in the economic, political and social prison they have been forced into by a combination of Israeli policy and international compliance, but truly, how can this most sickening of internecine wars do anything but damage the legitimacy of their cause? I don't understand.

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This should cheer the Blairs up

If the Blairs are rather down about leaving Downing Street, they should consider this: Bill Clinton raked in more than $10 million from his various speaking engagements last year. Tony might soon be joining those friends of his from school and university who, as he once said, “ended up so rich.” Indeed, maybe he should be buying the Cabinet presents rather than the other way round.

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Iraq edges away from the brink

The fact that the violence in Iraq has not reached the point of no return after yesterday’s bombing of the mosque at Samara is reassuring. John Burns, the New York Times’ incomparable Baghdad correspondent, has a must-read on why the reaction to-date has been so muted. If the situation remains calm, in relative terms, through Friday prayers this moment of acute danger will have passed. However, the situation in Iraq is still sobering. Today's Washington Post has an informative summary of the current situation. “Sectarian killings and attacks -- which were spiraling late last year -- dropped sharply from February to April, but civilian casualties rose slightly, to more than 100 a day.

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What should the Cabinet get the PM?

The Times reports today that the Cabinet has held a whip round for leaving presents for Blair and Prescott and that they’ve got £1,600 to spend on the two of them. What should they give Blair apart from a card saying thanks for the majorities? The gift can’t be too extravagant as that would upset Harriett Harman while the traditional engraved silver salver seems, well, a bit Tory. So, they need a third way. If you have a suitably New Labour solution to this problem, do leave it in the comments.

Wednesday

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Where will Gordon go first?

Benedict Brogan’s always excellent blog has an interesting post on the question of what Brown’s first foreign trip as leader will be. As Brogan notes, if Brown goes to Paris and Berlin he risks looking like the new kid in the class eager for approval from his peers—a danger that has been heightened by Sarkozy so successfully establishing himself as Mr. Europe. While if he heads to Washington, he’ll have to take a position vis-à-vis the Bush administration far sooner than he’d like. There is, though, a third way: make New York and the United Nations his first trip. Brogan thinks this is the likeliest destination as it would allow Brown to emphasise both the softer side of foreign policy and that Britain is in Iraq under a UN mandate.

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A friendly mistake

“We’ve gone on holiday by mistake”. So says Richard E Grant’s unforgettable character in Withnail & I. The other day I was trying to get on to Facebook to list myself as one my wife’s friends and write something nice – an innocent enough objective, I thought. Somewhere down the line – not quite sure where - I managed to join the whole damn thing by mistake. Well, that’s my excuse, anyway. Would that stand up in court? I doubt it very much. Now I have to fret about how many Facebook friends I have (a paltry 20 at present), “poking” and networks. As if I didn’t have enough to worry about already. All this Web 2.0 business can be very stressful.

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The Tony n’ Dave show, catch it while you can

A few thoughts from the penultimate Cameron v Blair show. The Prime Minister has a new phrase, “the end of waiting as we know it,” which doesn’t mean waiting has ended at all. He’s sharply reduced the number waiting over six months. But the median inpatient wait for an NHS operation is 5.4 weeks, exactly what it was in March 1994 (not that they publish these figures). I’m afraid that’s waiting, and as we know it. But, again, the knockabout was classic. Blair’s swipe at Cameron “he has the imprint of the last person who sat on him” had environment minister Ben Bradshaw clapping with delight. “I’ll miss him,” said Cameron. And to be honest, so will I. For sheer entertainment value, Gordon Brown has a lot to live up to.

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Checking up on progress

At PMQs today, David Cameron raised the whole question of what had happened to the information sharing measures which were supposedly going to be put in place after the Soham murders to protect children from paedophiles. For some background on the matter, do read this article by Tessa Mayes which details just how slowly the process is moving.

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Brussels talks

This interview with the José Manuel Barroso, president of the Commission, hints at how Brussels will play the negotiations on the constitution. He tries to calm Euro-skeptics by claiming that a United States of Europe is not on the cards, saying: "If you ask me, I'm not happy. But the EU does not pretend to be a state and it will not be in the foreseeable future." Barroso also makes clear that the more recalcitrant members will be allowed to opt-out of various bits of treaty, “As a rule, to have opt-outs is not good. But if it is the solution, I will not be against it." I suspect Brown—like John Major after Maastricht —will proudly return to London proudly boasting of the opt-outs he has secured by his negotiating skills.

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Brown’s team

One of the most significant disclosures about the incoming Brown regime is the news today that the next PM will bring Jeremy Heywood back into Number Ten as head of domestic policy and strategy. After working for Norman Lamont and Ken Clarke, Heywood was Blair’s private secretary between 1999 and 2003, and was one of the few close advisers to the Prime Minister to remain on genuinely good terms with the Treasury. He is currently managing director and co-head of UK investment banking at Morgan Stanley – no small post to relinquish. He is a formidably able man, and his appointment is the first concrete evidence of what Brown means by a “government of all the talents”. Strike One to the Clunking Fist.

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Iraq on the brink

The news that the Shiite mosque in Samara has been hit by terrorists is extremely worrying. It was the attack on this site in 2006 that prompted one of the most devastating waves of sectarian violence since the fall of Saddam. Over the next few days, we will find out if civil war in Iraq can be avoided.

Tuesday

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You won’t have Tony to kick around anymore

Enoch Powell famously said that “For a politician to complain about the press is like a ship's captain complaining about the sea.” For Tony Blair to complain about spin is like… well, words fail me. But the Prime Minister had plenty of words about how the wicked media has corrupted the message of the virtuous political class. All his press conferences, committee appearances were for to no avail. For the press are “feral beasts” whose negative stories about his government apparently “saps the country's confidence and self-belief”. I enjoyed and agreed with Tony Blair’s valedictory article on foreign affairs in The Economist. But this is beneath him.

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What to make of Blair’s attack on the media?

This was an oddly defensive speech from a normally robust orator. It tells you a lot about Blair's preoccupations that he left his big statement on the media till this point: it is obviously a subject that has gnawed away at him. He says he's not playing the blame game, but it's hard to see how calling the media a 'feral beast' can be interpreted any other way. New Labour was very happy to tango with the media until it went wrong - most spectacularly over the Iraq dossiers and Hutton. We've had Brown admitting in the past twenty four hours that the Government was wrong over the dossiers. Does Blair agree with his successor?