Martin Kulldorff

Martin Kulldorff is professor of medicine at Harvard

Tuesday

Martin Kulldorff

Covid, lockdown and the retreat of scientific debate

Science is about rational disagreement, the questioning and testing of orthodoxy and the constant search for truth. With something like lockdown – an untested policy that affects millions – rigorous debate and the basics of verification/falsification are more important than ever. Academics backing lockdown (or any major theory) ought to welcome challenges, knowing – as scientists do – that robust challenge is the way to identify error, improve policy and save lives. But with lockdown, science is in danger of being suppressed by politics. Lockdown moved instantly from untested theory to unchallengeable orthodoxy: where dissenters face personal attack.

Saturday

Martin Kulldorff

Herd immunity is still key in the fight against Covid-19

Open or close? Open the schools and close the pubs? Open bowling alleys but not skating rinks? Allow open restaurants but not wedding receptions? Britain is playing musical chairs with different services and businesses, but the whole game is misguided and without any scientific epidemiological basis. To open society gradually is certainly wise, but how do we pick one over another? Covid-19 is a terrible disease, and the primary goal should be to minimise deaths. How is this done? The key is age. The risk of Covid-19 mortality varies more than a thousandfold between the oldest and youngest members of society. The pandemic will not be over until we reach herd immunity, either through a vaccine or through natural infections.