Kate Andrews

This morning’s economic update from the Confederation of British Industry doesn’t make for cheery reading – but it could be worse. The organisation forecasts that the combination of high prices and low business investment will see the UK in recession throughout next year. Having previously predicted a 1 per cent rise in GDP next year, the CBI now expects a 0.4 per cent contraction. Meanwhile, the organisation’s economists expect average inflation over the course of the year to be more than three times the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent. It’s by no means good news – but compared with other recent forecasts for the UK economy, it’s the closest we might get.

And so it begins. French energy company TotalEnergies SE has become the first out of the gate to announce a change of plans for investment directly linked to the energy profits levy brought in by Rishi Sunak this spring, and expanded by Jeremy Hunt. The company says it will cut back its investment plan by 25 per cent next year, which will see roughly £100 million directed elsewhere. While this is one of the first companies to officially announce investment changes in the North Sea due to the windfall tax, it may not be the last. Shell is making similar noises; the company, so far, has used a loophole which was intentionally worked into the system to allow it to avoid most of the windfall tax by reinvesting its profits instead.

Andrew Bailey this afternoon showed that those who start fights don’t necessarily finish them. Speaking as the only witness at the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee today, the Governor of the Bank of England landed some rather extraordinary accusations against Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, suggesting that he was not informed of the details in September’s mini-Budget and that he ‘does not think it was settled’ even the day before it was announced.

There is a conundrum at the heart of Jeremy Hunt’s comments leading up to the Autumn Statement. Hunt describes inflation as an ‘​​evil’ that ‘erodes the pound in your pocket’: uncontroversial. So Autumn Statement, he says, has been designed by his Treasury to ‘help the Bank of England bring down inflation.’ But controlling inflation is the Bank of England’s remit, so any action will be indirect. By tightening fiscal policy, Hunt is lifting pressure off the Bank to keep pushing raising interest rates. This will be by design on the part of the Treasury.

There is no such thing as free money. This was learned the hard way last month, when investors made clear after Liz Truss’s mini-Budget that the era of cheap money was over. Mass borrowing for day-to-day spending was going to have a big premium attached: a bill so large that no government would want to pay. Rishi Sunak understood this delicate dynamic, and said so many times over the summer. His willingness to admit the truth – that the government’s many promises can’t be delivered for free – is what, eventually, landed him in No. 10. But now in power, Sunak and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt risk making another ‘easy money’ assumption, albeit a very different one. The massive profits of the energy companies have, once again, caught Sunak’s eye. It’s not hard to see why.