James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
Martin Bright sheds light on what Brown’s inner circle are thinking about an early election in this week’s New Statesman. What stands out, though, is how thin-skinned they are. Danny Finkelstein’s story about the influence of Bob Shrum on his conference speech has clearly got under their skin. One aide tells Bright that, “The behaviour
There are two schools of thought on whether the chances of an early election have increased or receded since last week. On the one hand, the Tory conference was a success and Labour’s polling in its key marginals is “patchy and extremely tight”, according to The Independent; suggesting that Gordon Brown should hold off. On
A few hours on from the end of conference and the new political landscape is becoming clearer. David Cameron has succeeded in uniting the Conservative party and the right more broadly behind him. The policies announced in Blackpool mean that Conservatives of all stripes now have positive reasons to want a Tory government. The leadership
My initial reaction is that it was good but not a home run. The ending was very strong but there was a bit towards the end when it ran out of steam a little bit. If I was Gordon, I’d be feeling a lot less confident of increasing Tony Blair’s majority in an election this
You wait ages for a Tory tax pledge then a whole slew come along at once. Following his speech on Monday which pledged to raise the threshold for inheritance tax and cut stamp tax for first time buyers, George Osborne has given an interview to The Times announcing that there are both personal and corporate
Today’s speech really is as important as the hype says it is. If David Cameron delivers a barnstormer and Gordon Brown pulls out of calling an election it will be a major coup for Cameron, giving him a level of personal authority as leader that he hasn’t had to date. Equally if Brown does go
Gordon Brown’s trip to Baghdad is the biggest political misjudgement of his leadership so far. It would have looked very different if the Tories were tearing themselves apart in Blackpool—Gordon could have posed as a statesman above such petty squabbles—but with conference going better than expected it looks like a cheap stunt; especially as Brown
All those waiting for the latest instalment in the great grammar schools row are going to have to wait a little longer. The rumours that Graham Brady, the frontbencher who resigned over the issue, had come to an agreement with the leadership not to reopen the row this week have been confirmed by a very mild
Boris has just brought the house down with a speech attacking Ken Livingstone and setting out the Tory agenda for London. One senses that Boris will have no problem in motivating the party activists to hit the streets for him. Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, was witty and self-deprecating and generally far better
Michael Heseltine just rolled back the years with a crowd-pleasing address to conference. Heseltine extolled the values of decentralisation, celebrated the triumph of the Tory agenda and bashed Gordon Brown for his failings. Tarzan also wins the prize for being the first, and I’m open to correction on this, speaker to quote Winston Churchill; declaring
Today’s polls are grim for the Tories. Labour lead by double digits in both and with a uniform national swing would have a majority well into three figures. Gordon Brown is also well ahead of David Cameron on the key personal measures. According to YouGov, Cameron has a net negative rating of 41 on being
A warm invitation to The Spectator’s new website The Spectator has a new website — redesigned, easier to use, with new features and writers. The online magazine will continue to do what the print magazine has always done on paper: inspire debate, stir up controversy and have some fun, with the added advantage that you
The Taxpayers’ Alliance is reporting that George Osborne will pledge to abolish inheritance tax at Blackpool. The TPA believes that the proposal that Osborne will unveil will be very similar to the one proposed by the Tax Reform Commission. Inheritance tax as we know it will be abolished and replaced by a new kind of
Iain Dale has a fascinating story up about a rumour that Alex Salmond might stand against Gordon Brown at the next general election. I’d love to see such a contest, Salmond clearly gets under Brown’s skin and the campaign would be great knock about. But I fear that it is unlikely. Considering that Brown won with
Gordon Brown will decide whether or not to call an election this weekend, The Guardian reports today. His aides, apparently, now think he is more likely to go for it than not. An announcement on October the ninth and an election on the first of November is the favoured option. This would allow Brown to
I never understand why people hold the UN up as some great moral arbiter. Far from being some vehicle for the world’s collective good intentions, it is a classic balance of power institution whose main aim is to avoid a conflict between the great powers—and damn the consequences for the little people. Just look at how
The chances of an autumn poll just increased with the news that Labour is hiring key election staff. Now, this doesn’t mean Gordon is definitely going but it does show that he wants to keep the option open. Oddly enough, I think this is quite good news for David Cameron: if he has a good
Nick Robinson has a great post up on the generation gap opening up among the cabinet about whether or not to go to the polls now. As Robinson points out, the young bucks want to go this year, increase the Labour majority and dish the Tories for good. Indeed, if the Labour majority did rise to three
A new YouGov poll puts Labour 11 points ahead and further increases the pressure on Gordon Brown to call an election in the next few days. There’s little doubt that these numbers will strike fear into the hearts of Conservatives. The consolation for them is that this is about as bad as it gets. The
Jon Cruddas’s latest conferences diary gives a great feeling for the Labour mood after yesterday’s speech. As Jon puts it, ‘Last night the Conference really kicked off.’ Do read it, if only to find out why Jon fears he is turning into Hazel Blears.