James Forsyth

When you ask a government minister why something hasn’t happened, you get a one-word answer: ‘Covid’. It has become the catch-all excuse for manifesto promises not materialising. But in the case of social care, there is a particular truth to it. A meeting last week between the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and the Health Secretary nearly resulted in an agreed policy. A plan was expected this week. Then Sajid Javid tested positive for Covid, putting the three into isolation and the policy on hold. Johnson feels he needs a solution to social care, having promised to solve the issue when he became PM two years ago and again in the Tory manifesto.

The UK has just revealed a list of the changes it wants to make to the Northern Ireland protocol. These are not minor tweaks. They would, as David Frost said, require ‘significant changes’ to the protocol. Frost says that the UK wants ‘to open discussion on these proposals urgently.’ But it is hard to imagine the EU being keen to renegotiate the protocol. They will point out that the current British Prime Minister signed this agreement and likely repeat their demand that the protocol must be implemented. So what happens next? The current grace periods run until the end of September so there is unlikely to be an immediate confrontation.

PMQs today descended into chaos. Boris Johnson was beaming in from Chequers, where he is self-isolating, and there were predictable tech gremlins. These disrupted the flow of the session and rendered it close to useless as a means of holding the Prime Minister to account.  PMQs is meant to be the most difficult half an hour of the parliamentary week for the executive, the moment when its arguments are tested. But today’s session descended into Johnson sounding like a train traveller going through a series of tunnels as he repeatedly asked whether the House could hear him or said that he hadn’t quite heard the question.

In a Science Museum webinar yesterday, Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, warned about the increasing number of people in hospital and said that, if in the next five to eight weeks 'things are not topping out, we do have to look again and see where we think things are going.'  He added that 'we've still got 2,000 people in hospital and that number is increasing. If we double from 2,000 to 4,000 from 4,000 to 8,000...and so on, it doesn't take many doubling times until you're in very, very large numbers indeed.'  If new restrictions are imposed as schools go back, the government will find itself in the worst political position it has been in yet during this pandemic The implication of these statements is that some restrictions could come back.

When the government announced a Commons vote on its decision to cut the foreign aid budget from 0.7 per cent of GNI to 0.5, the expectation was that the vote would be tight. In the end, the government won comfortably: it had a majority of 35. But despite their success, the whips would be wrong to be feeling triumphalist about this, I write in the magazine this week The usual whips’ line — if you keep your nose clean preferment might come your way — is ineffective Twenty-four Tories voted against the government, 14 of which were former ministers. The overwhelming majority of these are either uninterested in returning to ministerial office or are only interested in doing so on their terms.

‘Nothing except a battle lost can be half so melancholy as a battle won,’ wrote the Duke of Wellington after the Battle of Waterloo. This sentiment, rather than any form of triumphalism, is what Tory whips should feel after winning the vote on the government’s decision to reduce spending on foreign aid from 0.7 per cent of GDP to 0.5. The vote is a sign of the battles to come in the rest of this parliament. The government put its authority on the line in the Commons debate. The Prime Minister opened it, the Chancellor closed it. The government also offered something of a concession, a pledge to return to 0.7 once the current budget was balanced.