James Forsyth

Harriet Harman began at PMQs by asking about the situation in Tunisia. The mood of the House was appropriately sombre as this issue was discussed and there was much agreement between her and Cameron. But then she turned to the Davies’s report and its recommendation that a third runway should be built at Heathrow, and party politics was resumed. Harman announced that Labour was now backing a third runway, and challenged Cameron to do the same. He dodged, hiding behind the threat of judicial review. Harman then cracked a series of good jokes at his expense, chastising him for ‘being bullied by Boris’ out of doing the right thing for the country.

The question that will be on the ballot paper in Greece on Sunday is rather wordy, so European leaders have been trying to simplify it for Greek voters today. Their message has been vote Yes to the bailout deal to stay in the Euro and No for a return to the Drachma. Their logic is that however much Greeks may dislike imposed austerity, they don’t actually want to leave the Euro. It has become clear today that the Eurozone’s strategy now is not to try and put together a last minute agreement but to instead rely on a Yes vote on Sunday. This would lead to the fall of the Syriza-led government and the Eurozone’s hope is that a deal could then be done with a new, more emollient Greek government. Indeed, there seems to be little hope of a last gasp compromise by either side.

Tonight, it is still not clear how the Greek situation will be resolved. The European Central Bank--which is desperate to avoid being dragged into the politics of this situation--has chosen a middle way on its emergency assistance to Greek banks. It has neither ended it—which would have crashed the whole Greek banking system—nor extended it, which would have enabled the banks to stay open and eased the pressure on the Syriza-led government. Greek banks will definitely be closed tomorrow and probably until the referendum on Sunday. The next big question is what happens on Tuesday when the bailout programme ends and a payment comes due to the IMF which Athens will not be able to make.

The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has just announced that there will be a referendum on the proposed bailout deal next Sunday, July 5th. He will ask for the current bailout to be continued until then to allow the Greek people to have their say. The signs from Athens are that Tsipras will campaign for a No vote unless the creditors offer Greece a radically better deal at tomorrow’s meeting. This move from Tsipras will infuriate Greece’s creditors.  It will also, almost certainly lead to the introduction of capital controls for Greek banks until the referendum. If the creditors don’t blink tomorrow and improve the terms they are offering Athens, then it is hard to see how the current deal can win a referendum in Greece.

This EU Council has long been marked in Downing Street’s diary as the moment when David Cameron would tell other EU leaders what his renegotiation demands are. But tonight Cameron’s remarks will be a relatively minor part of proceeding as Greece and the situation in the Mediterranean dominate discussion. I understand that the Council President Donald Tusk is not even expected to go round the table asking other EU leaders what they thought after Cameron’s contribution. In some quarters, the fact that the British renegotiation is being treated as a third order issue at this summit is being seen as a snub to Cameron. But those involved in the renegotiation are actually quietly pleased that it won’t be the centre of attention at this summit.

In PMQs today, there was no sense of the drama going on outside in Central Lobby as disability campaigners attempted to enter the Chamber. But the exchanges were far more revealing than usual. Harriet Harman asked Cameron about his plans to cut tax credits. Revealingly, Cameron didn’t deny that tax credits were going to be cut or tell Harman to wait until the Budget on July the 8. I think we can take that as something close to confirmation that tax credits will be cut as part of the government’s effort to make £12 billion of savings from the welfare Budget. Indeed, Cameron even endorsed the idea that tax credits have actually kept wages down when he said that he wanted a ‘high pay, low tax, and lower welfare’.

Dominic Cummings is the man drafted in to put together the putative No campaign for the EU referendum. Cummings has a tendency to surprise and he has done that today with a piece that pushes the idea that the No campaign should say that there would be a second referendum if Britain votes Out. This second vote would be on the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU. Cummings’ thinking is that this would de-risk voting No. People would be simply rejecting the deal that David Cameron had negotiated rather than voting to leave outright. Cummings sums up the advantages of a second referendum for No thus: This approach might allow NO to dodge its biggest problem – the idea that a NO vote is a vote to leave in one jump and is therefore a leap in the dark.

The Greek economy minister Giorgos Stathakis has told Robert Peston in an interview that the deadlock between Athens and its creditors has been broken, that $7.2 billion of funds should soon be released enabling the IMF to be paid at the end of the month. But this judgement seems distinctly premature. First of all, the technical negotiations have yet to take place — and it is all too easy to see how a deal could fall apart then. While the IMF tends to take a tougher line than the European Commission and so might not sign off on this deal. It is also worth remembering that there have been times when the Greek view of what has been agreed has differed distinctly from that of the rest of the Eurozone.

Ed Miliband believed that after the financial crisis, Britain had moved to the left. He argued that there was no need to adopt all the Blairite positions to win. The election result appears to have disproved that thesis. But, as Andy Grice argues in his column today, Blairite is still being chucked around as the insult of choice in this Labour leadership contest. As Grice points out, Labour particularly need the Blair agenda’s ability to connect with English swing voters now given what has happened in Scotland. In a world in which the swing required for Labour to win Midlothian is larger than to take Kensington, Labour will have to take most of the seats south of the border to gain a working majority. Now, Blair has not helped himself since leaving office.

This Labour leadership contest is almost as notable for who isn’t standing as for who is. First, there is the former paratrooper turned MP Dan Jarvis who declined to stand despite many on the Labour side’s belief that he is the answer to the party’s problems. Then, there is Chuka Umunna who initially did enter the race but then pulled out almost immediately, depriving the contest of the one current Labour politician with undoubted star power. But, perhaps, even more telling by their absence are those Labour figures who aren’t even in parliament now. The most discussed of these is David Miliband, who quit the Commons after losing to his brother in 2010.

The Sun has video footage of Boris Johnson telling a Cab driver to ‘f--- off and die’. Normally, this would sound pretty dire for a politician. But having watched the video, which The Sun has put online here, I don’t think this exchange will do Boris that much harm. The Mayor and the Cabbie are both going at it and there’s no sense that Johnson think he’s superior: it is a democratic slagging match. It also rather helps Boris that he is on his bike while it is the Cab driver who is shouting abuse out of a car window. Now, they’ll be those who don’t like people, let alone the Mayor of London, swearing in public and won’t be impressed by Boris using such language.