James Forsyth

As the Tory leadership candidates prepare for tonight’s debate on Channel 4, I find my mind turning back to the Cleggmania that followed Britain’s first televised election debate. As I say in the Times today, Penny Mordaunt’s current momentum feels a bit like things did in 2010: a previously little known politician is shooting to prominence. Only 16 per cent of Tory voters can recognise Mordaunt but she is now in with a serious shot of becoming PM. Mordaunt’s rise is a product of the unique circumstances in today’s Conservative party. She is managing to have her cake and eat it. She has served in the cabinet, but not Boris Johnson’s cabinet.

Suella Braverman is now backing Liz Truss, as is Braverman’s campaign wing man Steve Baker. Given the discipline of the ERG whipping operation, this should mean that the bulk of Braverman’s 27 supporters move to Truss. After being knocked out, Braverman had said she would consider Truss’s Remain vote in 2016. But, ultimately, that turned out not to be an obstacle for Braverman. Kemi Badenoch, a Brexiteer, was thought to be the other contender for the Braverman endorsement. She told Iain Dale tonight that she is ‘disappointed’ with the decision: ‘I know people are going to support the person most likely to give them a job... I'm trying to do something different.

A cabinet minister yesterday observed to me that they would scream if they heard another person suggest the Tory leadership race was like the Grand National. Rather defensively, given it is one of my favourite analogies, I asked what they thought would work better. A little while later, they messaged back: demolition derby; a reference to the sport where cars drive into each other until only one is left standing. Today this analogy seems rather apt. The Sundays are full of quite extraordinary accusations of dirty tricks, which, if they were included in a TV drama would be thought of as OTT. The Telegraph has published an anti-Rishi Sunak briefing note that is being circulated.

We have seen two Tory Leadership bids this morning that aim to show they can bridge the party divides. Jeremy Hunt, who campaigned for Remain and sits for a Lib Dem facing southern seat, has announced that Esther McVey, Brexiteer and northern seat, will be his deputy PM. As he put it, John Prescott to his Tony Blair. Tom Tugendhat, Remainer, southern seat, never served under Boris Johnson, has announced the backing of Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Brexiteer, northern seat, one of Johnson’s leadership campaign whips and still a member of the government.  This is a very American approach, you balance the ticket with someone who can reach the parts of the party that the principal struggles with. In British politics, this approach has a chequered history.

Who will be the candidate of the right in this contest? There is this morning a mighty tussle on to be the standard bearer of the right in this contest. Suella Braverman, the Attorney General, is the preferred choice of many in the ERG. She has the backing of Steve Baker and as a Spartan has the battle honours too. She is offering the full spectrum of scrapping net zero, tax cuts, protocol and anti-wokery. She also stole a march by coming out early on Wednesday. Then, there is Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, who is expected to jump into the race shortly. She holds a great office of state and has been an MP since 2010. Her argument will be that as the most senior figure the right should unite around her.