James Forsyth

Listen to Douglas Murray and James Forsyth debating Ken Livingstone's non-expulsion: Ken Livingstone has not been expelled from the Labour party for his comments about Hitler and Zionism. Instead, he has been suspended for two years; but he has already served one year of that suspension. Given the offensiveness of what Livingstone said and the glee with which he expounded his argument, he should have been expelled. Indeed, some of his comments in recent days have been worthy of expulsion on their own. He talked earlier this week of how ‘you had right up until the start of the Second World War real collaboration’ between the Nazi government and the Zionist movement. There is no sign of penitence from Livingstone tonight.

ICM, who Vote Leave used for their own referendum polling, have some striking numbers on what elements of an EU exit deal British voters would find acceptable. 54 per cent of voters regard maintaining free movement as part of a transition deal - something that Theresa May wouldn’t rule out in her interview with Andrew Neil - as acceptable. However, there is clearly going to be a big problem with any exit payment. 64 per cent regard a £10 billion payment as unacceptable, with that figure rising to 70 per cent for a £20 billion payment—which is at the low end of what people in Brussels think Britain ought to pay. This, obviously, presents a political problem for May: how does she square the public on such a payment?

There’s an awfully long way to go, but the Brexit negotiations got off to a good start for Theresa May this week I say in The Sun today. Number 10’s great worry was that there would be an immediate no from the EU to what it proposed. That is why May’s Article 50 letter was written in such a conciliatory and constructive tone—it was meant to be impossible to simply say no to. This approach has had some success. In his negotiating guidelines, EU Council President Donald Tusk doesn’t suggest that the UK has to hand over the so-called divorce payment before trade talks can start—something which would have been unacceptable to the UK government.

On 29 March 2019 the Queen should have a state dinner and invite the European Union’s 27 heads of state and its five presidents. The evening’s purpose would be to toast the new alliance between the United Kingdom and the EU: one based on free trade, security cooperation and shared democratic values. This celebration of the new alliance will be especially welcome after two years of negotiations which are bound to be fraught and, at times, ugly. The complexity and the sums of money involved pretty much guarantee this. There is, though, a particular onus on Britain to keep things civil. We have chosen to end this failed relationship, so we should brave the insults and not feel the need to respond to every Juncker jibe.

The Scottish Parliament has voted 69-59 for a second Scottish independence referendum. This is no surprise. But it does lend more force to Nicola Sturgeon’s demand for a second referendum. She can now say that she has her parliament behind her when she presents the UK government with her request for a Section 30 order. Don’t expect Theresa May to move position though: she’ll stick to her line that ‘now is not the time’ for a second vote on independence. The UK government has been, privately, delighted at how May’s position has gone down in Scotland. They feel that there is no groundswell of support for another referendum, something that has been backed up by the polls.

The Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire is playing for time. In a statement made after the 4pm deadline for forming an executive in Northern Ireland was missed, Brokenshire said that he was giving the parties a few more weeks to try and reach a deal. He justified this on the basis that there is no enthusiasm for either early elections or direct rule from Westminster. But even with more time, it is hard to see how an agreement can be reached. Sinn Fein, post Martin McGuinness, is far more determined to cause mischief and senses a Brexit moment of opportunity. This means that it is not keen on joining a power sharing executive. For their part, the DUP are not prepared to drop their leader Arlene Foster after the ‘cash for ash’ scandal.

Speaking in Downing Street this evening, Theresa May has urged people to go about their business normally tomorrow. In a statement that struck an appropriately defiant tone, May said that the targeting of Westminster and the Houses of Parliament ‘was no accident’. But that that any attempt to defeat the values of ‘democracy, freedom, human rights, the rule of law’ through ‘violence and terror is doomed to fail’. Talking of the police officer who died in the attack, and the others who have been injured, she praised the ‘exceptional bravery of our police and security services who risk their lives to keep us safe’. This is the first terrorist attack that Theresa May has had to deal with as Prime Minister.

The EU has been adamant that there will be no negotiation with the UK without formal notification that Britain is leaving. But next Wednesday, Theresa May will formally trigger Article 50—beginning the two-year process for Britain leaving the EU.  Many in government expect the start of the talks to be difficult: ‘get ready for a spot of turbulence’ says one of those intimately involved in the preparations for the negotiations. The expectation is that the EU will insist that the so-called ‘divorce bill’ must be settled first while the UK is adamant that it will only discuss that if the future trade relationship between the UK and the EU is also on the table.

Theresa May has just declared that ‘now is not the time’ for a Scottish independence referendum. Given that no referendum can take place without the UK government’s consent. May is effectively ruling it out whatever the Scottish Parliament decides next week.  Now, it is not a surprise that the UK government won’t let an independence referendum take place during the Brexit negotiations. Scottish voters can’t possibly make an informed decision until they know both the terms of the Brexit deal and what kind of relationship with the EU or the single market an independent Scotland could have. But what is new in May’s statement is her refusal to suggest when she might agree to a second independence referendum.