James Forsyth

It was a badly kept secret in Westminster that very senior figures in the UK government wanted Francois Fillon to win the French presidential election. He was regarded as being the best candidate for Britain, and the one most likely to be pragmatic on Brexit. But with Fillon out, attention switches to Macron—the overwhelming favourite. Macron is emotionally and ideologically pro-EU. He has been clear that he doesn’t want a sweetheart deal for Britain. On his campaign visit to London, he talked aggressively about luring businesses to France post-Brexit.

The latest polling marmalade dropper comes from Wales. Labour have won a majority of Welsh seats in every general election for the past eighty-odd years. But the latest Welsh Political Barometer, the most respected poll there, has the Tories on 40 per cent and on course to win 21 seats to Labour’s 15. This poll combined with the fact that Labour is now down to one MP in Scotland shows how difficult it will be for the party to win a UK-wide majority again. They will have to do it without the inbuilt advantage that their Celtic strength used to provide them with. If May can succeed in realigning British politics in this election and flip lots of Labour seats in the North and the Midlands, then it will become even harder for Labour.

Everything you need to know about the current state of the polls is summed up by the fact that one which puts the Tories at 40 per cent, a level that they haven’t hit in a general election for a quarter of a century, and 11 points clear is presented as a blow to them. Now, the reason that the Mail on Sunday has done this is because other polls have the Tories so far ahead that a mere 11 point lead looks rather anaemic. ComRes has the Tories at a jaw-dropping 50 per cent, with Labour on 25 per cent. YouGov puts the Tories on 48 per cent, and 23 points ahead. Interestingly, it also finds that May is more trusted than Corbyn on the NHS suggesting that even Labour’s banker issue won’t save it this time.

Theresa May is over the first hurdle of the election campaign, I say in The Sun today. There has been no public backlash to her going back on her word and opting for an early election after all. It has not done the damage to the May brand that I thought it risked. This is testament to how popular she is. In an anti-politics age, where voters are quick to think the worst of politicians, she has been allowed to change her mind. Ministers marvel at how she has got away with such a flagrant u-turn. ‘If I had tried that, I never would have heard the end of it’, remarks one senior minister. With this hurdle cleared, the path is now clear for May to try and use this election to realign British politics.

George Osborne’s decision to stand down as an MP is a sign of how impregnable Theresa May’s position is perceived to be. Osborne is the most politically formidable of the Tory sceptics of May’s Brexit plan, and his decision to quit the Commons suggests that he doesn’t think she’ll come unstuck in the next parliament. Of course, Osborne has others things to occupy himself with: the editorship of the Evening Standard and his lucrative work for Black Rock. But one suspects that he’d have been prepared to brazen out the criticism over his multiple jobs if he thought there would be a political sea change in his wing of the party’s favour in the next parliament. Osborne’s departure from the Commons will further denude it of experience.

Theresa May has just announced that she’ll move a motion in the Commons tomorrow calling for a general election on 8 June. This is despite May and her team having repeatedly ruled out going to the country early. Much of the May brand, and her appeal, is built on the idea that she is a grown-up who gets on with the job and doesn’t play political games. By going for an election, and especially when the Tories have a record poll lead over Labour, she endangers that. May is clearly aware of this danger. In her statement outside Downing Street, May tried to pitch herself against Westminster. She said that while the country was coming together, Westminster was not.

Boris Johnson has received a bit of a kicking this week. There have been no shortage of people wanting to say he has been humiliated by the G7’s refusal to back his call for further sanctions on Russia and Syria after the chemical weapons attack. But I argue in The Sun today, that the real story is the weakness of the EU members of the G7. To be sure, Boris got too far forward on his skis on sanctions. But the bigger issue, by far, is the weakness of those members of the G7 who wouldn’t back them: principally, Italy and Germany. Lenin used to say “Probe with a bayonet; if you meet steel, stop! If you meet mush, then push.” This is, pretty much, Putin’s approach. So, Europe’s unwillingness to push back will embolden him.

Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, has been in Downing Street this afternoon meeting with Theresa May. The official readout of their talk is much as you would expect. Warm words about the hopes for a ‘deep and special partnership’, an attempt to calm things down over Gibraltar but nothing major as the EU 27 have yet to agree their negotiating position. But the real significance of this meeting is that it is meant to be one of a series between May and Tusk as the negotiations continue. This shows that the European Council—which represents the member states—wants to keep the Commission on a close rein during these talks. The May/ Tusk dialogue also creates a forum for breaking any logjams that might develop during the formal negotiations.