Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is a Times columnist and a former editor of The Spectator.

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Once again, Europe threatens to devour another British PM

In British politics, the Europe question always comes to embody the problems that a Prime Minister faces. So Gordon Brown will fly back from Lisbon with a treaty that emphasises that he is scared of putting things to the country and that he spins just as much as his predecessor ever did. With the ratification process expected to run for six months, Mr. Brown faces prolonged trouble over this document and maybe even his first large scale Labour rebellion.  Only last month, the European Union Reform Treaty seemed to pose little problem for Gordon Brown. He had enough political capital to sign and dispose of this unwanted inheritance from Tony Blair. He’d face a few protests, rude newspaper editorials and captious opinion polls.

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

We can’t go on like this

Last Friday, I was invited on the radio to have a go at Kelvin MacKenzie who attacked Scotland’s welfare dependency on Question Time. I had to drop the bombshell: I broadly agreed with him. When I was political editor of The Scotsman, I was regularly amazed at the picture told by the reports I was reading. Masses of cash (much of it English) had deformed our once-great economy. We had gone from Silicon Glen to Mandarin Mountain and the “Scottish government” would be a lot more worried about our appalling levels of poverty-fuelling welfare dependency if they, not Whitehall, were picking up the bill. In his column today, McKenzie says Scots know how to spend money but not earn it.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

The Brown Cameron clash at PMQs

Brown better today, but that's not saying much. The Labour benches were obviously under instructions to cheer, but they still look on without expression with only a handful (Jack Straw especially) nodding to Brown’s points. But he still stammers and allows himself to be shouted down by the Tories. His new line (mentioned five times) is that there is a £6bn black hole in Tory plans, latching on to the dodgy maths in the Tory non dom calculation. Quite right too, a good target. Brown again repeated the lie that Cameron was the "economic adviser" to Norman Lamont, rather than a special adviser. Remind me, what was he doing when he was 25? Writing the "red paper for Scotland", I recall....

Monday

Fraser Nelson

Why Nick Clegg will be next

I regard Nick Clegg as much of a certainty to replace Ming as Blair was to succeed John Smith in 1994. Some Coffee Housers have taken me to task for saying that this is bad for Cameron and good for Brown. What has Clegg ever done, they ask. Well not much, I admit, but from what I know of him I reckon he has the intellect and energy to do a great deal. He is the best hope of restoring the zing the LibDems need. Huhne is Alistair Darling without the eyebrows: cerebral but ineffective. He'll bomb.

Fraser Nelson

What they’re saying in the bars of Westminster about Ming’s departure

So whodunit? That's the question in the bars at Westminster, where an excited Commons has just finished voting. Fingers are being pointed at the impatient Chris Huhne, with co-conspirators in the Lords. Lib Dem MPs seem genuinely stunned. The most popular theory (in Strangers' Bar at least) is that Ming realised he was done for and wanted to quit before a messy and ignominious assassination. Then he flew back to Edinburgh in a "to hell with you all" type of mood. If this is true, it's unwise of him not to make his own statement. But he never did have a feel for political theatrics. And this, of course, was the bulk of his problem. Ps I am sad to report that Gabriela "Cheeky Girl" Irmina remains unmoved at 500-1 to succeed Ming. Some parties have no sense of adventure.

Fraser Nelson

Ming’s resignation letter

At last, a statement from Sir Menzies..."It has become clear that following the prime minister's decision not to hold an election, questions about the leadership are getting in the way of further progress by the party. Accordingly, I now submit my resignation as leader with immediate effect". Hilarious. Has all the authenticity of a statement drafted for a deposed African ruler. I suspect they had to sedate Elspeth, Ming's formidable wife, before she let him sign it. So the LibDems perhaps do have a bit to learn about coups after all. Brown will want Clegg to win - posh enough to repel left wing voters and suck support from Tories.

Fraser Nelson

Forget the men in grey suits, the men in sandals are more ruthless

I have to say, these Lib Dems are getting good at it. It took the Tories about a decade before they could get their leadership coups down to the 48 hour wonder we have just seen here. The brutality is breathtaking. Where is Ming? Gagged and bound somewhere? Can Coffee House readers remember that last party leader who was not even allowed the dignity of announcing his own resignation? You can smell the grapeshot.

Fraser Nelson

Brown’s feeble fight-back

Brown has just been on the BBC (“speaking from a school gymnasium”) defending himself. People, he says, will judge him on what he did on terrorism, foot and mouth and the Northern Rock crisis. And PS, it took “tough decisions” to produce the economic growth of the last decade. Let us set aside the fact that voters judge politicians on any criteria they like. But what did Mr Brown do on terrorism? Responded the next day in a hypnotically dull Marr interview and have his Home Secretary downgrade this to a “crime”. On foot-and-mouth? He messed it up, hence a new wave of outbreaks. And Northern Rock? It was a fiasco: in a global credit crunch, only Britain suffered run on a bank. Finally he does not run the British economy, he just taxes it.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Betting on the Lib Dems

Ladbrokes today updates its odds for the inevitable Lib Dem leadership race, and - irritatingly for the Tories - Nick Clegg is the clear frontrunner. Some odds: Nick Clegg 4/5 Chris Huhne 3/1 David Laws 8/1 Ed Davey 10/1 Simon Hughes 12/1 Charles Kennedy 16/1 Alistair Carmichael 16/1 Vincent Cable 16/1 Lembit Opik 16/1 Paddy Ashdown 25/1 Gabriela Irimia 500/1 Of the above, I suspect the Cheeky Girl would do quite well. But it is their funeral....

Fraser Nelson

What Cameron must do now | 14 October 2007

Today’s newspapers are another treat for Conservatives with a taste for schadenfreude. Blair has, overnight, denied that he’s authorising briefings against Brown. But he doesn’t need to. They’ve been at it for days, not just old Blairites but non-aligned backbenchers. Brown is a dud, they proclaim, with no vision. Cameron is a hero, the polls proclaim, setting the agenda. Just a fortnight ago, the conventional wisdom was the exact opposite. The tables are turning too often for my liking: I’d like them bolted down where they are. But only Cameron can do that, and only by bolting down the vision of Conservatism he announced in Blackpool.

Fraser Nelson

No lead, no loyalty

Loyalty only lasts as long as your opinion poll lead. Mutinous Labour voices liven up the Sunday press and an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph gives the Tories a seven point lead at 43 per cent to 36. Expect a return of the Blairites. Like Blake's Seven, the leader may have gone but it seems they battle on nonetheless. Fun fun fun....

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

The election sprint has turned into a marathon. Can Dave keep the lead?

For a man whose economic policies had once again been stolen by the government, George Osborne looked unusually cheery as he delivered the opposition response to the pre-Budget report on Tuesday. Alistair Darling had brazenly claimed as his own the Tories’ new ideas: raising the inheritance tax threshold, an airline levy and taxing foreign financiers. But to the shadow chancellor, this theft represented victory. ‘From this day on,’ he declared, ‘let there be no doubt who is winning the battle of ideas.’ It was a fair point. Mr Darling had spent the first half of his speech denouncing Conservative policy and the second half aping it.

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Pulling back the curtain

The drama of the last week in politics defies analogy – but one celluloid parallel has stuck in my mind. As it is Friday, I thought I’d share. This clip from the Wizard of Oz encapsulates for me the psychological change in the Tory party. The pilgrims (Tories), having reached the Emerald City (the election), are standing scared, knees shaking, in front of the Powerful Courageous Clunking Great Wizard. But thanks to Toto (George Osborne) they soon find he’s not enigmatic and all-powerful after all – just a small man pulling levers behind a curtain. When Cameron challenged Brown to that election, he pulled back the curtain. And the Tories are not at all scared by what they see.

Fraser Nelson

How Barroso and Brown could stitch up the press

If I were Barroso, I would pick a huge, fake fight with Gordon Brown before the EU constitution, sorry, treaty is signed. His plea today that Britain should not be "closed to Europe" is what the PM needs. The two have to pretend to be at loggerheads, let the press write up a split, then a "bulldog Brown triumphant" headline at the end. Brown's problem is that he's already claimed his so-called "red lines" have been met. So how can he claim they are suddenly under threat again? We'll see.

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

Things worth seeing

Anyone who missed Sky News' Adam Boulton giving Jacqui Smith a kicking over the election last Sunday can now see it again on their excellent revamped website Boulton & Co. I can also recommend the Harman head shake - brilliant.

Fraser Nelson

What Darling really did with Inheritance Tax

I was too harsh on the Treasury. I derided their inheritance tax con, saying it may fool TV news but would be shredded by the press. This was not the case. Most newspapers, having two hours to digest the whole budget, jumped the wrong way on IHT, reporting that the threshold was doubled to £600,000. So mission accomplished: the public has been successfully misled. How so? I pass you over to a Coffee Houser, DaveyB, who is an inheritance tax specialist. He left a comment earlier on, and has kindly agreed to expand it. I suspect you may not read this in the press... Now, some of you may think: only a few rich folk will have taken such advice. But I humbly submit that only a few rich folk (7%) are liable for IHT. Thanks, David, and keep the comments coming!

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

First blood to Cameron

Cameron is at his derisive, aggressive best. Everything Brown says is being greeted with hoots of derision.  Brown's "I will take no lectures" was weak to the point of being helpless. It looks, feels and sounds like he is taking a spanking. Labour faces are ashen, as Brown attempts to defend himself by reeling off statistics. The cheer from the Tories after Cameron called for "the past to make way to the future" was perhaps the loudest I have heard in this chamber. You can almost see the power shifting.

Fraser Nelson

The first PMQs of term

Real first-day-back-at-school atmosphere in the Commons, in a good way. Andy Coulson has taken a perch in the press gallery, Alex Salmond is making a rare appearance but there is only one Brown aide here. The Tories are already making far more noise. Great "bottle bank" opening gag, suspect there will be more to come.

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson

A tax raising report

I now have the costings. This is indeed a tax raising budget. By 2010-11 they plan to net £1.4 billion extra in tax. Highlights are: £440m a year by "state second pension white paper reforms".... Sounds dodgy.... Raise £500m from non doms, lose £1.4 billion on inheritance tax (nb Tory proposal would have cost £3.5bn) and £900m from the raid on venture capitalists plus £500m on the new airline tax. In the first two years this would be a net loss to the Exchequer, but overall taxes are up.

Fraser Nelson

The scene is set for Darling

This is a posthumous Brown budget. Let’s not forget he finished the Spending Review last year, but held it over to now updating it now and again. So you may see Darling’s lips move, but we will be hearing Brown’s voice. We will be blogging live on this, but we’re aware of the pit-falls. Here are the ingredients of a Brown budget… 1. The speech. Normally a ploy to wrong-foot the Opposition and set the press on the wrong scent. The real story will only come out once we have seen the documents (made available when he sits down) and studied the footnotes. Remember the 2p on tax cut that never was? We can expect more of this here.  2. The timing.