Fraser Nelson is a Times columnist and a former editor of The Spectator.
So, when was the last year Labour did so badly? “Since records began in 1973” say the Tories but surely they can do better than that. Michael Portillo, whom I was sitting beside for an hour as we waited to be called by the BBC, pointed out that there may not be equivalent national share
If you want to know why blogs have the edge over newspapers on election night, take a look at tomorrow’s newspapers. I’ve just finished reviewing them on Sky News alongside Roger Alton, the Spectator’s sports columnist (other job: editor-in-waiting of The Independent). Knowing nothing, what can the papers do? Only The Sun predicts a big
I have just spoken to a senior Labour staffer (not Douglas Alexander!) who tells me they are seeing the “mirror image” of what I am hearing from the Tories. That is to say: high turnout in the Labour supporting inner city areas, much better than they thought. There is an obvious risk that Labour only looks
Anyone who follows ConservativeHome.com know it doesn’t take fliers. And it has just called the election for Boris. You may think: wishful thinking from those Tories. But no website is better plugged in to what’s happening out there; what the activists and tellers are saying. My sources report massive turnout in strong Tory areas like Chingford.
The Guardian’s G2 today informs us that Boris “despises gays, ” “despises provincials” and “despises Africans.” What is more, “He despises those of us who hold such judgments to be bigoted and inhuman” according to Zoe Williams. It has quotes from various “Londoners” saying things like “I think he’s racist”. But my favourite quote is
When I was househunting last year, I came very close to putting in an offer for a surprisingly well-priced two bed flat. Only at the last minute did I discover that the house next door was what the man from Foxtons described as a “halfway house” – ie, a bail hostel. No need to worry,
In a not-very-hotly contested category, this was perhaps Gordon Brown’s best PMQs performance. His content wasn’t any more accurate, but sounding confident is half the battle. And he did. He didn’t stutter or garble his words and looked much more relaxed. As ever, there’s a bit of Dr Johnson’s dog about this – but Cameron
Gordon Brown gives interviews like he is programming a computer. In his pre-election appearance on Today at 8.10am he fired off statistics, as if they spoke for themselves – sounding passionate, one might argue, and knowledgeable. But on several areas his information was misleading or simply false. Here’s what jumped out at me. 1). “We’re
Labour’s losing no time on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election – due three weeks on Thursday (May 22). I suspect they believe this will be a much-needed fillip to Brown. Sure, Gwyneth Dunwoody had a 7,000 majority – but it’s the type of seat Cameron needs if he is to win the kind of majority
Remember when Alistair Darling “announced” the £50 billion loan package to banks? That time he summoned banks to a meeting saying he wanted better fixed-rate deals and mortgage holidays “in return” for this scheme? He was talking through his hat. He has this morning been rumbled by Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England,
A chastened and whipped Kate Hoey has, via the Labour Party HQ, issued this “clarification”: “The key part of the Boris Johnson statement – ie that I will be the first member of his administration – is wrong. I have simply agreed to act in a similar position, for example to Conservative MPs John Bercow
I’m not so sure that George Osborne did gaffe when he hinted yesterday that he’d crack down on the power of public sector unions. Labour is stoking the row. But if this provokes Brown to pose as the strikers’ friend, then good luck to him. I know which side the public will be on. In
I doubt many headlines will come from David Cameron’s poverty speech in Euston today, but for those looking to see him wrestle his way out of Labour’s way of thinking and towards a Tory solution there was plenty to see. Here’s the problem as I see it. Brown has long understood that metrics are power.
Team Osborne get in touch in relation to my last post. Yes it is an old idea, they say, but Labour is pussyfooting around. They would implement it properly. Cameron has just walked into the room… Let’s see how he does. Update: At his speech in Euston, Cameron has just sought to make a virtue
The other day I blogged how the Tories are engaging in a “fool’s game” of trying to work out what the government will announce, beating them to it, and then claiming they were the first mover, They appear to be at it again today with a proposal for independent financial advice centres. Downing Street is
I’ve just arrived back from a visit to Scotland (stag party in Feshiebridge) and in my sober moments picked up these few observations…. 1. No Tolls: On my drive there and back I whizzed past the Forth Road Bridge with no tolls – better for traffic and my pocket. Motorists (including one driving G Brown) do
If David Cameron liked the YouGov poll in the Telegraph last Thursday, he will love tomorrow’s News of the World. For the first time since the bottled election it has commissioned ICM to poll the marginals. You rarely see this – it’s difficult and very expensive to do. The result? That the boy Ashcroft done
In a pre-record for GMTV on Sunday, a Plaid Cymru MP – Adam Price – has said there is “no veto” on coalition with the Tories. That’s an understatement. The nationalists will be praying for an hung parliament so they (plus some Ulster MPs) can jump into bed with the Tories. The Welsh and Scottish
After that ICM poll suggesting the Tory lead had shrunk to 5 points, tomorrow’s Telegraph gives Cameron just what he wants ahead of next week’s local elections: an 18 point lead. Breakdown is 44-26-17. It’s YouGov, in my view the most reliable pollster. When YouGov had the Tories with 16 point lead it was seen as
I have just ran into the striking teachers, placards aloft as they try to extort even more money from the taxpayer by closing a third of English schools today. Three things struck me. 1. One placard said “2.4%=Balls. 10%=NUT”. I wonder which of those two pay rise figures the public would consider more reasonable? 2.