Politics

My jaw slightly dropped on Friday when Michael Gove announced that the number of Covid-19 cases in the UK was now doubling every three to four days. This is significantly faster than the five days that was initially built into the government's forecasts for the rate of increase in sufferers, and the 4.3 days that epidemiologist Neil Ferguson told me on 17 March was the new estimated ‘baseline’ doubling time. On the one hand, this accelerated rate of infection explains why the government moved to enforce much more severe measures to restrict social interaction just over a week ago, because presumably its scientific advisers had more than an inkling that the virus was spreading significantly faster than would allow hospitals to cope.

This is an economic horror show. According to YouGov, UK unemployment may have jumped five per cent in a matter of weeks. The consultancy CEBR estimates that global GDP may shrink by twice the rate seen in the Great Recession. This may be the worst hit to British people’s livelihoods since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Except one thing is different: this is a deliberate economic shutdown, made necessary to avoid a deeper, more human one. It isn’t that the economy is failing to work because the credit system has seized up as in 2008. We are actively contracting productive work in order to limit a tragedy. A recession it will be, but it is our choice in a time of acute crisis, demanding Herculean lifting and leadership by the state.

The Chancellor’s emergency package for the self-employed is one of the most generous schemes to be offered worldwide so far, covering up to 95 per cent of the UK's self-employed workforce. The details of the scheme, explained here, include a taxable grant worth up to 80 per cent of one’s profits over the past three years, capped at £2,500pm – notably on par with salaried workers who earn, on average, £340 more each month than self-employed workers. There were plenty of potential pitfalls and unnecessary giveaways the Treasury managed to dodge: wary of dishing out cash to super-wealthy contractors and consultants, the Chancellor has only opened the scheme to workers trading with profits up to £50,000.